Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 1922020 times)

thepupil

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5740 on: September 23, 2020, 04:23:20 PM »
EQC

+1, 0-7% discount to NAV at 10-6% cap, value of EQC increases as real estate stocks/private market goes down. thereís like $300B of RE PE dry powder, but I think a single deal $2.8B cash pile + equity group backing is unique.

The biggest tail risk I see is them doing a poorly received deal with another one of my holdings and I find I own too much of one thing. This is probably me just being paranoid because Iím dipping into the cash/bond allocation to buy EQC.


fareastwarriors

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5741 on: September 23, 2020, 04:24:17 PM »
EQC

+1, 0-7% discount to NAV at 10-6% cap, value of EQC increases as real estate stocks/private market goes down. thereís like $300B of RE PE dry powder, but I think a single deal $2.8B cash pile + equity group backing is unique.

The biggest tail risk I see is them doing a poorly received deal with another one of my holdings and I find I own too much of one thing. This is probably me just being paranoid because Iím dipping into the cash/bond allocation to buy EQC.

Nice.

Added a bit to EQC and smaller bit to EQR

CorpRaider

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5742 on: September 23, 2020, 04:56:59 PM »
My biggest fear is they sit there sucking their thumb and paying the SG&A.  I saw some commentary that the paying of the dividend means people infer they don't intend to close a deal this tax year.  I dunno about that but I do know Zell has been cautious for years in his like "market commentary." 


Though to be honest from what I've read about him I kind of think he just gives his opinion on macro stuff but it doesn't really impact what he actually does, which seems to be buy quality property below replacement value that has been under-managed/presents obvious value-add opportunities.  But if he said that every time he was asked a question on a TV program, he probably wouldn't get many invites.

I almost did some more EQR (and some PGRE) today too but I have to save some room for "disrupted" financials and "disrupted" media companies in with my "disrupted" real estate. haha 
« Last Edit: September 24, 2020, 05:25:59 AM by CorpRaider »

Castanza

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5743 on: September 24, 2020, 08:11:04 AM »
Small adds to RTX, PCYO, PPL
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boilermaker75

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5744 on: September 24, 2020, 08:39:53 AM »
Wrote some BRKB 205-strike 9/25 expiration puts for $0.71 per share.

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5745 on: September 24, 2020, 10:45:09 AM »
Small adds to RTX, PCYO, PPL

Bought some of this too last couple days. Also added to WM and V today.

On PCYO, the underperformance is indeed perplexing. They own all the stuff you'd think does very well with the housing market on fire like it is. They are monetizing their land effectively and growing recurring revenue at a very high rate for the foreseeable future. Dan Kozlowski has been adding like a madman to an already significant stake which is encouraging as well. Given the balance sheet strength, I'd like to see a buyback put in place, as do a number of shareholders...many of which have passed this along to Mark. Either way, phase 2 should be announced next quarter which will provide another tailwind in terms of tap fees and lot sales. This is currently my 2nd largest position at a bit under 20%.

KJP

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5746 on: September 24, 2020, 11:33:48 AM »

On PCYO, the underperformance is indeed perplexing. They own all the stuff you'd think does very well with the housing market on fire like it is.

I had the same thought.  I realize PCYO is concentrated in one area and the big homebuilders are much more geographically diverse, but it's strange that  PCYO hasn't really budged.

Spekulatius

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5747 on: September 24, 2020, 11:36:42 AM »

On PCYO, the underperformance is indeed perplexing. They own all the stuff you'd think does very well with the housing market on fire like it is.

I had the same thought.  I realize PCYO is concentrated in one area and the big homebuilders are much more geographically diverse, but it's strange that  PCYO hasn't really budged.

PCYO lost all the high margin $ from the Oil and Gas industry ( both royalty and fracking water ). Thatís not a problem a home builder has.
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Castanza

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5748 on: September 24, 2020, 11:53:03 AM »

On PCYO, the underperformance is indeed perplexing. They own all the stuff you'd think does very well with the housing market on fire like it is.

I had the same thought.  I realize PCYO is concentrated in one area and the big homebuilders are much more geographically diverse, but it's strange that  PCYO hasn't really budged.

PCYO lost all the high margin $ from the Oil and Gas industry ( both royalty and fracking water ). That’s not a problem a home builder has.


The majority of rev doesn't come from O&G supply but I agree they are handicapped (in this segment) near term due to oil and gas production. Guidance for revenue and profitability is still there despite the lull in that segment.

« Last Edit: September 24, 2020, 12:06:03 PM by Castanza »
Core: MSFT | GOOG | INTC | PLTR | CMCSA | VZ | RTX | MSGS | BATRK | WFC | USB | PNC | BAC | TPL | PPL | PCYO | GRBK | PLNT | ATCO | ESPO | HACK

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Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5749 on: September 24, 2020, 12:22:38 PM »
Yea Ive spoken with a good % of the shareholder base over the years and I am yet aware really of anyone who weighs the O&G/fracking as anything but a free option. I did see one writeup a while ago with a super bull case in which it could account for $1 per share of NAV. Its just kind of there, but not material IMO.

They are not a homebuilder. They prep the lots but have contracts currently with 3 national builders and profit arrangements with all. There's currently 7 national builders looking to get involved in phase 2, which a couple years out should include over 1M sq/ft of commercial. The main asset is the water rights/servicing. This is a very conservatively managed company that basically has a whole lot of optionality, great inflation protected assets, and a pristine balance sheet. My only guess on the underperformance is really just a few of the larger legacy holders still lightening up and perhaps a bit of an unwind from the October - March rally where the stock literally never had a down day. But IDK. I'm good all day with this one here at $9.