Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 2206428 times)

muscleman

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #90 on: June 30, 2013, 11:02:43 AM »
AOL actually did just that in dot com bubble by merging with Time Warner. However it was still overvalued.

I am not using my explanation to justify purchase of AMZN or CRM. I am just trying to explain what is actually happening with these pumpers, and why their overvalued price may continue to be overvalued for a few more years.
On the other hand, if we can find a fairly valued or even undervalued company that may kick off this kinds of boom/bust cycle, then it will be a great time to buy. If this cycle does not get kicked off, we lose no money. If it does get kicked off, we may make a lot of money. I have a 7% position in NOV, and I am investigating more to see if NOV fits this boom/bust cycle.
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!


twacowfca

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #91 on: July 04, 2013, 05:12:48 PM »
In the last couple of weeks we've been buying more cash and more index puts.  Not much upside if the market goes up. but our portfolio could actually increase in value if the market takes a dive because of the quality of our main holdings.  :)

We threw in the towel yesterday and closed out most of our hedges at a relatively small loss because we obtained what we think is additional informed prior information to add to our Bayesian analysis to assess probabilities about where the market is headed in the future.  The answer is : we don't know.  There  is  substantial upside based on one body of prior outcomes and  substantial downside based on another body of prior outcomes.  In the meantime, it's quite possible that the market could tread water for a while.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2013, 05:18:59 PM by twacowfca »

JBird

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #92 on: July 04, 2013, 10:24:59 PM »
What sort of inputs go into your Bayesian analysis?
Woman and wine, games and deceit, make the wealth small and the wants great. - Ben Franklin

twacowfca

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #93 on: July 05, 2013, 01:32:49 AM »
What sort of inputs go into your Bayesian analysis?

One body of prior evidence is what typically happens at the end of a super credit cycle,  Reinhart and Rogoff , Richard Koo stuff.  The other body of evidence is what happens specifically in the US as the Fed starts to turn off the taps after a long period of easing when interest rates were  absolutely or relatively low, for example in the mid 1950's or in the mid 1990's.  In those cases, there was a rotation out of low yielding bonds as bond holders started to experience mark to market losses when interest rates began to rise.  Before long, some of  those funds found their way to a different asset class with a much  higher earnings yield that wasn't in a downtrend. Eventually, that led to bubbles, but in the meantime, the stock market doubled or tripled.  :)

Time will tell which storyline comes true.  Meanwhile, I think we will tone down speculating on the market direction in the absence of important, new information and hold stocks in great businesses that are attractively priced or otherwise hold cash.  Boring, Warren Buffett style investing.  :)
« Last Edit: July 05, 2013, 01:49:47 AM by twacowfca »

CorpRaider

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #94 on: July 05, 2013, 04:46:18 PM »
Anyone starting to sniff around the (copper) miners?  I'm in no rush but am starting to gently tap the tires on RIO and SCCO.  Can't touch FCX anymore because I believe CEO used it as his personal piggy bank to bail out distressed E&P co's..

alertmeipp

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #95 on: July 05, 2013, 05:07:42 PM »
I got in to Taseko mines.

xxx1313

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #96 on: July 06, 2013, 10:42:52 AM »
I bought some shares of Nevsun Resources and Mawson West. Both low-cost producers, but with high political risk (Africa). Never saw stocks so cheap before on an EV/CF or EV/FCF basis!

ericd1

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #97 on: July 06, 2013, 07:35:52 PM »
Anyone looking at coal mining?   KOL eft nearing 2009 lows.

Palantir

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #98 on: July 08, 2013, 08:43:40 AM »
Do you guys try to diversify between sectors? I find good opportunities in tech (ORCL), but I'm already like 40% in technology....
My Portfolio: AMZN, PYPL

greenwave

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #99 on: July 08, 2013, 09:24:34 AM »
Anyone looking at coal mining?   KOL eft nearing 2009 lows.

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Eric -
What are your thoughts on WLT ?

 As I understand it ,...they were hit hard by the market after reconsidering  & canceling their plans to refinance some of their near term debt ,... as they got caught up in the recent ramp up in their proposed bond offerings interest rates . (and of course Obama's new plans to "OVER-REGULATE" all coal powered energy plants  in the future ).

Just previous to that , there was very significant insider buying at ~$17 to $ 18  or so .

greenwave