What sort of inputs go into your Bayesian analysis?
One body of prior evidence is what typically happens at the end of a super credit cycle, Reinhart and Rogoff , Richard Koo stuff. The other body of evidence is what happens specifically in the US as the Fed starts to turn off the taps after a long period of easing when interest rates were absolutely or relatively low, for example in the mid 1950's or in the mid 1990's. In those cases, there was a rotation out of low yielding bonds as bond holders started to experience mark to market losses when interest rates began to rise. Before long, some of those funds found their way to a different asset class with a much higher earnings yield that wasn't in a downtrend. Eventually, that led to bubbles, but in the meantime, the stock market doubled or tripled.
Time will tell which storyline comes true. Meanwhile, I think we will tone down speculating on the market direction in the absence of important, new information and hold stocks in great businesses that are attractively priced or otherwise hold cash. Boring, Warren Buffett style investing.
