Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 2198020 times)

randomep

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #280 on: January 13, 2014, 03:43:06 PM »


In short, lots of yellow flags.

But the same can be said for 2012 and 2013......

The above statement, honestly, seems like a contrarian flag to me.


twacowfca

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #281 on: January 13, 2014, 06:26:28 PM »


In short, lots of yellow flags.

But the same can be said for 2012 and 2013......

The above statement, honestly, seems like a contrarian flag to me.

If hedges were high probability winners, they wouldn't call them hedges.  :)

tombgrt

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #282 on: January 13, 2014, 10:26:19 PM »
Yes, it remains a hedge. If I win I practically lose nothing. If the market keeps rising, I win a few percent less. A lot of bearish commentators from different angles (macro, value, technical,..) have been turning. Fear was much higher a year  ago.

randomep

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #283 on: January 13, 2014, 10:37:09 PM »
Yes, it remains a hedge. If I win I practically lose nothing. If the market keeps rising, I win a few percent less. A lot of bearish commentators from different angles (macro, value, technical,..) have been turning. Fear was much higher a year  ago.

yes yes I agree.... btw how exactly do you hedge? with puts on an amount equal to the entire size of your portfolio?


Kraven

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #284 on: January 14, 2014, 05:35:11 AM »


In short, lots of yellow flags.

But the same can be said for 2012 and 2013......

The above statement, honestly, seems like a contrarian flag to me.

If hedges were high probability winners, they wouldn't call them hedges.  :)

Great response.  I liked it.
Buy cheap and something good might happen.

onyx1

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #285 on: January 14, 2014, 07:56:10 AM »
Added some to the SPY puts we bought a few days ago.  Portfolio is about 2/3 hedged.

Why? WSBASE has flattened out of the year and a half growth slope, but still too early to say there is a change in the trend.

Dynamics of S&P500 slope looks like a market on the verge of a crash, according to Sornette.

Fed is concerned about the development of an asset bubble, so they may not save the bacon this time.

Market cap/ GDP is high etc etc etc

In short, lots of yellow flags.

Raising cash by cutting long exposure and leverage.  Not macro related.  I want to own assets with a healthy asymmetric return profile but as prices have increased the return profiles are too balanced.  Last time I held this much cash was mid-2011.

fareastwarriors

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #286 on: January 24, 2014, 06:45:14 AM »
correction?

dpetrescu

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #287 on: January 24, 2014, 07:02:29 AM »
Nothing. I have no new ideas and 40 something % cash. Well I did buy a tiny bit of FIAT based on this board, but I missed the big run. I'll have a lot to research in a few weeks with 13Fs.

Lance

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #288 on: January 24, 2014, 08:58:32 AM »
I wrote puts on AIG and SHLD this morning.

Thanks,
Lance

gjangal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #289 on: January 24, 2014, 09:56:47 AM »
C ,  90% Tangible book. Betting on them improving their ROE/ROA