Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 2195797 times)

jm25

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #370 on: February 04, 2014, 01:34:47 PM »
GNCMA


no_free_lunch

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #371 on: February 04, 2014, 05:52:17 PM »
prevalou,

Thanks for the feedback!  I knew ADT was a comp but I don't follow them, my bad I guess.  You are right on the FCF as well, found it in the citigroup conference presentation.   It still seems fairly cheap though given their historical growth.  I know it is with acquisitions but historically the acquisitions have translated well on a FCF / share metric.   The biggest issue I see is a fairly shallow moat and Malone selling a big chunk of shares.  I will probably watch them for awhile longer.

alertmeipp

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #372 on: February 04, 2014, 06:12:53 PM »
Well, and I got more FTP.TO today.
Not without risk but the risk / reward is getting very asymmetric. Chad laid out the non-DP business really well in the recent presentation, and the cost cutting and loonie will help the DP business quite a bit going forward.




Kiltacular

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #373 on: February 04, 2014, 09:55:37 PM »
Bought OTM puts on IWM early today to add to the pile of SPY puts we own.  Nice pop with the IWM puts up about 65% at the close.  Have been rolling some of the ITM SPY puts into longer duration OTM puts.

It's definitely nice to have an increasing store of potential dry powder in this decline.  It remains to be seen if, in the immortal words of George W. Bush, "This sucker's going down." :)





+1. Let the discussion continue on whether it makes sense to hedge or not but it sure feels nice to have no impact on your portfolio when the markets go down 2%+, especially when you are at that time trekking in northern thailand's jungle! :d

It sure feels good when you timed it right... the thing is how often you timed it right. If one has the ability on timing (some do), there is much better way to make money than doing "hedges"

I give him credit.  He timed it perfectly and he had a reason...WSBASE...he called it on the way up too.   

alertmeipp

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #374 on: February 05, 2014, 04:53:23 AM »
Of coz, he is one of the few who can time it right. I am one of the many who can't.

Kiltacular

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #375 on: February 05, 2014, 10:31:07 AM »
Of coz, he is one of the few who can time it right. I am one of the many who can't.

 :) I'm in your camp...I just selfishly want to make sure he keeps us updated! 

Mephistopheles

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #376 on: February 05, 2014, 11:51:32 AM »
SHLD. The market cap is now down to $3.7 billion.

DCG

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #377 on: February 05, 2014, 12:05:29 PM »
SHLD. The market cap is now down to $3.7 billion.


Enterprise value is near $8 billion though when you include their debt. I'd like to see some insiders make some purchases. It's just tough to value a company bleeding over a billion in cash a year.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2014, 12:12:12 PM by DCG »

Palantir

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #378 on: February 05, 2014, 12:30:42 PM »
BRK.B
My Portfolio: AMZN, PYPL

twacowfca

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #379 on: February 05, 2014, 12:31:41 PM »
Bought OTM puts on IWM early today to add to the pile of SPY puts we own.  Nice pop with the IWM puts up about 65% at the close.  Have been rolling some of the ITM SPY puts into longer duration OTM puts.

It's definitely nice to have an increasing store of potential dry powder in this decline.  It remains to be seen if, in the immortal words of George W. Bush, "This sucker's going down." :)





+1. Let the discussion continue on whether it makes sense to hedge or not but it sure feels nice to have no impact on your portfolio when the markets go down 2%+, especially when you are at that time trekking in northern thailand's jungle! :d

It sure feels good when you timed it right... the thing is how often you timed it right. If one has the ability on timing (some do), there is much better way to make money than doing "hedges"

I give him credit.  He timed it perfectly and he had a reason...WSBASE...he called it on the way up too.

you are very kind. However, there is a big difference in predicting a major turn in the market and making money on that prediction.  Our hedge is tricky. I don't have the guts to in effect go short with TRS as Watsa did because of the huge adverse movement if the market against all reason continues to go up.

We started out in mid January with slightly OTM Feb SPY puts. These waffled back and forth mostly under water until the last few days of Jan. Today, we closed out the last of these with a nice gain. In the meantime, we have been rolling about two thirds of these gains farther out on the volatility curve, buying March and then April SPY and IWM puts that are longer dated and a little bit farther out of the money than the February puts when we first bought them.  We also took some $$ off the table so that if the market is sluggish to decline or pops back up, we won't lose money on the hedge.

Now, if the market goes down fast or a lot, the greater volatility exposure will give us an extra kick.  :)
« Last Edit: February 05, 2014, 12:43:08 PM by twacowfca »