Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 2206458 times)

wescobrk

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #540 on: April 11, 2014, 10:18:59 AM »
"I noted many times that the capital return would likely disappoint and be low.  My views on this were hissed by many of the true believers on the board.  People believe what they want to believe."

I thought bac would disappoint as well but I also thought citi would pass three stress tests when I saw them 160 basis higher than bac on stressed tier 1 but we all know how great that decision of was mine.

This is a humbling business.
I have new appreciation for Buffett always looking for the sure thing.


ERICOPOLY

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #541 on: April 11, 2014, 01:11:12 PM »
Got out of the 2015 BAC calls a while ago and now partially rolling over to a 2016 $12 position.  I think the $20B market cap decline relative to its recent high is excessive vs. 1) its new legal costs (credit card settlement, etc) and 2) lower than expected capital return to shareholders.

I noted many times that the capital return would likely disappoint and be low.  My views on this were hissed by many of the true believers on the board.  People believe what they want to believe.

The capital return was pretty much maximized I felt.  At least, based on what was left to return after the Fed stress test dictated how much they would need to hold onto to stay above the minimums in their scenario.  The part that I didn't expect was how little would be left to return in the stress scenario.  The Fed didn't seem to have any problem letting them return all of the excess -- there just wasn't much "excess".

The Fed stress test is sort of a back-door means of raising capital levels well above what the B3 guidelines allow.

Spekulatius

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #542 on: April 12, 2014, 09:28:36 PM »
At 5$/share, buying back stock would have done wonders for BAC, at current valuations, I think they are better off paying some dividends. BAC trades at almost the same price/tangible ratio than JPM and JPM is arguable a much better managed bank.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

bmichaud

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #543 on: April 14, 2014, 07:51:56 AM »
RWM

blainehodder

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #544 on: April 14, 2014, 11:52:41 AM »
JPM warrants.

JPM seems like a fantastic deal at these levels if Jamie Dimon is even close in his assumptions of return on TBPS. I guess the market doesn't believe him. I do.


-TBPS of 40.82 x 15% ROTCE = 6.12 EPS

-TBPS increased at 12%/yr since 05, no dip in crisis, no dip from settlements, no dip from Whale losses

-Maintained 15% ROTCE as capital requirements have increased.

-Pruning the loser businesses.

-Fastest growing deposits.

-Uptick of 6B if interests rates "normalize"

I hope they are executing on the buybacks right now in a big way.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2014, 12:38:18 PM by blainehodder »

yader

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #545 on: April 14, 2014, 01:40:32 PM »
ADV - Alderon Iron Ore
"But you, man of God, flee from all this, and pursue righteousness, godliness, faith, love, endurance and gentleness." 1 Timothy 6:11

randomep

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #546 on: April 14, 2014, 08:31:13 PM »
K here goes:

Not sure about sizing

portfolio   
SNMX Senomyx   6,50%
ACW Accuride   4,00%
GNCMA General communications   6,00%
DAP.U Xpel tech   6,00%
0184 Keck Seng investments   6,00%
OUTR Outerwall   6,00%
GPIV33 GP investments   5,00%
XON Intrexon    1,50%
EHL Emeco holdings   6,00%
LUKOY Luke oil   4,00%
LRM Lombard risk   4,00%
AMNL Applied minerals   2,00%
PIH Property insurance   3,00%
FIAT Fiat   3,00%
   
   63,00%


Average upside is like 300% or something. Very mixed portfolio. Downside is limited in most cases by assets or by bad things being priced in mostly, and with the speculative ideas, insiders have alot more to lose then me. The idea that i really like best is Senomyx. I have a hard time killing that one, insiders absolutley love it (putting most of their networth while in SNMX case not even overly promoting it) and it just looks like the market is really badly mispricing that one. Usually with that amount of upside, the products arent approved or not even ready to manufacture yet. But here they already have all that, AND they have already made deals with the people who will use it lol. Maybe i willl add 1-2% more there.

 Curious what will happen in the next few years. Going to be very interesting to sweat this out. First year where i will have more then half of my money in stocks.

I want to be 75% invested tho. I think i should add to some of those ideas, but not sure. Got some reading to do :) 

Maybe i did focus a bit too much on upside tho. OUTR might be risky, Lombard is risky, adn there are 3 speculative ideas in there for almost 10% that are not making money but have huge potential upside.

hi yadayada, I am always trying to get ideas from others' portfolio, but you are really mad about SNMX? why? I just downloaded their 10K and they are losing money, do I have the right company? Why is it so good?

thanks

phil_Buffett

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #547 on: April 15, 2014, 03:18:40 AM »
AIQ, altius, alderon, GM, Sberbank, Horsehead, BYD, RJET, Sprint, Clarke

bmichaud

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #548 on: April 15, 2014, 09:59:31 AM »
Continuing to buy the RWM dips - bought more on this morning's market pop.

nkp007

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #549 on: April 15, 2014, 10:01:18 AM »
My dignity.