What are you buying today?

[wescobrk]

"I noted many times that the capital return would likely disappoint and be low.  My views on this were hissed by many of the true believers on the board.  People believe what they want to believe."

I thought bac would disappoint as well but I also thought citi would pass three stress tests when I saw them 160 basis higher than bac on stressed tier 1 but we all know how great that decision of was mine.

This is a humbling business.
I have new appreciation for Buffett always looking for the sure thing.

[ERICOPOLY]

Got out of the 2015 BAC calls a while ago and now partially rolling over to a 2016 $12 position.  I think the $20B market cap decline relative to its recent high is excessive vs. 1) its new legal costs (credit card settlement, etc) and 2) lower than expected capital return to shareholders.

I noted many times that the capital return would likely disappoint and be low.  My views on this were hissed by many of the true believers on the board.  People believe what they want to believe.

The capital return was pretty much maximized I felt.  At least, based on what was left to return after the Fed stress test dictated how much they would need to hold onto to stay above the minimums in their scenario.  The part that I didn't expect was how little would be left to return in the stress scenario.  The Fed didn't seem to have any problem letting them return all of the excess -- there just wasn't much "excess".

The Fed stress test is sort of a back-door means of raising capital levels well above what the B3 guidelines allow.

[Spekulatius]

At 5$/share, buying back stock would have done wonders for BAC, at current valuations, I think they are better off paying some dividends. BAC trades at almost the same price/tangible ratio than JPM and JPM is arguable a much better managed bank.

[bmichaud]

RWM

[blainehodder]

JPM warrants.

JPM seems like a fantastic deal at these levels if Jamie Dimon is even close in his assumptions of return on TBPS. I guess the market doesn't believe him. I do.


-TBPS of 40.82 x 15% ROTCE = 6.12 EPS

-TBPS increased at 12%/yr since 05, no dip in crisis, no dip from settlements, no dip from Whale losses

-Maintained 15% ROTCE as capital requirements have increased.

-Pruning the loser businesses.

-Fastest growing deposits.

-Uptick of 6B if interests rates "normalize"

I hope they are executing on the buybacks right now in a big way.

[yader]

ADV - Alderon Iron Ore

[randomep]

K here goes:

Not sure about sizing

portfolio   
SNMX – Senomyx   6,50%
ACW – Accuride   4,00%
GNCMA – General communications   6,00%
DAP.U – Xpel tech   6,00%
0184 – Keck Seng investments   6,00%
OUTR – Outerwall   6,00%
GPIV33 – GP investments   5,00%
XON – Intrexon    1,50%
EHL – Emeco holdings   6,00%
LUKOY – Luke oil   4,00%
LRM – Lombard risk   4,00%
AMNL – Applied minerals   2,00%
PIH – Property insurance   3,00%
FIAT – Fiat   3,00%
   
   63,00%


Average upside is like 300% or something. Very mixed portfolio. Downside is limited in most cases by assets or by bad things being priced in mostly, and with the speculative ideas, insiders have alot more to lose then me. The idea that i really like best is Senomyx. I have a hard time killing that one, insiders absolutley love it (putting most of their networth while in SNMX case not even overly promoting it) and it just looks like the market is really badly mispricing that one. Usually with that amount of upside, the products arent approved or not even ready to manufacture yet. But here they already have all that, AND they have already made deals with the people who will use it lol. Maybe i willl add 1-2% more there.

 Curious what will happen in the next few years. Going to be very interesting to sweat this out. First year where i will have more then half of my money in stocks.

I want to be 75% invested tho. I think i should add to some of those ideas, but not sure. Got some reading to do  

Maybe i did focus a bit too much on upside tho. OUTR might be risky, Lombard is risky, adn there are 3 speculative ideas in there for almost 10% that are not making money but have huge potential upside.

hi yadayada, I am always trying to get ideas from others' portfolio, but you are really mad about SNMX? why? I just downloaded their 10K and they are losing money, do I have the right company? Why is it so good?

thanks

[phil_Buffett]

AIQ, altius, alderon, GM, Sberbank, Horsehead, BYD, RJET, Sprint, Clarke

[bmichaud]

Continuing to buy the RWM dips - bought more on this morning's market pop.

[nkp007]

My dignity.