Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 2196003 times)

longlake95

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #550 on: April 15, 2014, 10:28:27 AM »
GM

LL


yadayada

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #551 on: April 15, 2014, 10:38:14 AM »
I am always trying to get ideas from others' portfolio, but you are really mad about SNMX? why? I just downloaded their 10K and they are losing money, do I have the right company? Why is it so good?

I'm invested in this, but it's more of a bet on whether the product works as advertised. If it does and there are very few limitations to its application, then it should be an attractive product to the food&beverage industry (use less sweetener without compromising taste? also, potential cost savings? sounds pretty sweet!). The VIC post lays out the investment case very well. It's a long one. There's also good discussion on their message board. I think the author's reasoning makes a lot of sense, assuming the products work. If they don't work as advertised, then I'd be concerned about the counterpoints.

I also really like this idea because of the similarities with past superstocks: the operating leverage, returns on capital, barriers to entry, competitive advantages, large addressable market.

yeah i think only a few % is best so far. But i kinda want to make it bigger to like 8-9%. Just looks like a high probability of a multibagger.

And i scratched intrexon from that list. And would make PIH (the insurance one) bigger. read here why:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2139333-1347-property-insurance-holdings-an-ipo-left-for-dead-with-upside-of-50-percentminus-100-percent?isDirectRoadblock=false&uprof=45

V interesting idea that doesnt seem noticed in the corner of the market. With 100% upside and a catalyst of 1 year.

Also making Lombard risk bigger to  like 8% instead of 4%.

rainman

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #552 on: April 15, 2014, 10:56:57 AM »
I am always trying to get ideas from others' portfolio, but you are really mad about SNMX? why? I just downloaded their 10K and they are losing money, do I have the right company? Why is it so good?

I'm invested in this, but it's more of a bet on whether the product works as advertised. If it does and there are very few limitations to its application, then it should be an attractive product to the food&beverage industry (use less sweetener without compromising taste? also, potential cost savings? sounds pretty sweet!). The VIC post lays out the investment case very well. It's a long one. There's also good discussion on their message board. I think the author's reasoning makes a lot of sense, assuming the products work. If they don't work as advertised, then I'd be concerned about the counterpoints.

I also really like this idea because of the similarities with past superstocks: the operating leverage, returns on capital, barriers to entry, competitive advantages, large addressable market.

yeah i think only a few % is best so far. But i kinda want to make it bigger to like 8-9%. Just looks like a high probability of a multibagger.

And i scratched intrexon from that list. And would make PIH (the insurance one) bigger. read here why:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2139333-1347-property-insurance-holdings-an-ipo-left-for-dead-with-upside-of-50-percentminus-100-percent?isDirectRoadblock=false&uprof=45

V interesting idea that doesnt seem noticed in the corner of the market. With 100% upside and a catalyst of 1 year.

Also making Lombard risk bigger to  like 8% instead of 4%.

Can you share your point of XON ?

yadayada

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #553 on: April 15, 2014, 11:39:00 AM »
well thats the thing, i know very little.

The bull case now is that some smart hedgefunds bought in (like einhorn). The guy who funded a good part, and most of his own money, has a stellar track record in  biotech. And it is suposed to revolutionize how drugs work. And lots of very smart people involved in general. And if it works out it will be a many billion$ stock.

 But it just feels like im way outside of my circle of competence here. And there are better ideas out there i think.

constructive

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #554 on: April 15, 2014, 12:00:57 PM »
I bought DWCH to cover my short.

Einhorn is probably making good money on the short side right now - might want to buy more GLRE.

Kiltacular

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #555 on: April 15, 2014, 08:16:18 PM »
JPM warrants.

JPM seems like a fantastic deal at these levels if Jamie Dimon is even close in his assumptions of return on TBPS. I guess the market doesn't believe him. I do.


-TBPS of 40.82 x 15% ROTCE = 6.12 EPS

-TBPS increased at 12%/yr since 05, no dip in crisis, no dip from settlements, no dip from Whale losses

-Maintained 15% ROTCE as capital requirements have increased.

-Pruning the loser businesses.

-Fastest growing deposits.

-Uptick of 6B if interests rates "normalize"

I hope they are executing on the buybacks right now in a big way.

I agree on JPM looking good here.

Anecdote:
I've had occasion to deal with sales and back-office of 3 of the "big banks" in the last 2 years and JPM is in a class by itself on both fronts.  It is a minor data point and could just be coincidence of whom I dealt with.  Plus, JPM had me sign 10 times the disclaimers, etc. and has the strongest internet security in my experience and the best banking features of the three.  Just thought I'd throw it in.

bargainman

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #556 on: April 15, 2014, 08:22:05 PM »

V interesting idea that doesnt seem noticed in the corner of the market. With 100% upside and a catalyst of 1 year.


can you please expand on this?

wachtwoord

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #557 on: April 17, 2014, 09:55:04 AM »
Sold 40% of my INTC (which i had been holding since <$20) @ $27 and bought CTRX @ $39.50 with the proceeds.
"Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master"

no_free_lunch

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #558 on: April 17, 2014, 11:38:03 AM »
 
Sold 40% of my INTC (which i had been holding since <$20) @ $27 and bought CTRX @ $39.50 with the proceeds.

I have never heard of CTRX before but a quick glance shows it has been growing like a weed and has got whacked lately due to lower 2014 estimates.  Anything you can share on this one?

wachtwoord

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #559 on: April 17, 2014, 12:43:08 PM »
CTRX is the third largest Pharmacy benefit management (PBM) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pharmacy_benefit_management which came out of a merger between two smaller ones last year. Express Scripts (ESRX) and CVS Caremark (CVS). PBMs are the intermediary between pharmaceutical benefit payers and their members. The primary moat factor in PBM in scale because PBMs make money on the spread and can negotiate with those selling the drugs. ESRX and CVS are both significantly bigger than CTRX. This sector is growing significantly driven by the changes in the healthcare system in the US and I was interested in ESRX in the end of 2013 but too slow to pull the trigger and the prices rose beyond what I was willing to pay. Additionally STRX recently closed a 10-year contract with Signa which is expected to add $0.50 per share starting in 2015.

This is not a (pure) value investment as growth is in fact needed to warrant the current price.
"Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master"