Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 2196000 times)

PatientCheetah

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #620 on: June 05, 2014, 02:05:24 PM »
SODA
risk as little as possible until all the stars have aligned

Longer Term: FB MSFT BABA JD YRD


frommi

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #621 on: June 07, 2014, 09:14:13 AM »
After feeling a lot of pain with a long/short portfolio in the last week i give it up, its just not for me. I covered all shorts, i just hold onto bbh and mdax put options as protection. I put this into lesson learned category which has cost me my outperformance of the first 5 months. So if i will ever short again i will only do it with small put positions.
Nevertheless i raised my cash level a bit, sold CHL, DLR, WSTG,BACHY and OHI and bought ALS.TO and VZ. I am really trading too much, but i am constantly in fear of losing my gains. Really weird, i need a psychologist.  ::)

thepupil

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #622 on: June 11, 2014, 10:01:55 AM »
MONT Jan 2015 20 - 15 put spreads at 55 cents

Tilson Right, Chinese company is a fraud buyout not real:     8 Profit
Tilson Wrong, Chinese company is a fraud but buyout real: -1 Loss

http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MONT?s=mont


Why I Just Made Montage Technology Group My Largest Short Position
Whitney Tilson Today, 12:30 PM 2 Comments
China Orders Montage Technology To Cease Production And Sale
Aristides Capital Today, 8:13 AM 25 Comments

    Montage's stated set top box revenue is not consistent with its reputation as a very minor player; other brands dominate Montage by 10:1 to 35:1 among suppliers and finished goods.
    Montage produces the majority of chips in a 5 million chip per month black market; China's government recently ordered them to "stop illegal production and sales activities immediately".
    Excluding illegal chips, Montage trades at roughly 10x revenue. Neither PDSTI nor anyone else is likely to buy MONT at this price. Any of numerous catalysts could drop MONT precipitously.

« Last Edit: June 11, 2014, 10:04:33 AM by thepupil »

jm25

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #623 on: June 11, 2014, 11:40:19 AM »
Symbility Solutions (TSXV:SY)

50centdollars

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #624 on: June 11, 2014, 12:32:20 PM »
Symbility Solutions (TSXV:SY)

Why?

rainman

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #625 on: June 11, 2014, 01:49:42 PM »
Most likely MONT is a fraud. But with PDSTI acquisition, shorting it may be too dangerous ? PDSTI could acquire it and IPO in Chinese stock market.



MONT Jan 2015 20 - 15 put spreads at 55 cents

Tilson Right, Chinese company is a fraud buyout not real:     8 Profit
Tilson Wrong, Chinese company is a fraud but buyout real: -1 Loss

http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MONT?s=mont


Why I Just Made Montage Technology Group My Largest Short Position
Whitney Tilson Today, 12:30 PM 2 Comments
China Orders Montage Technology To Cease Production And Sale
Aristides Capital Today, 8:13 AM 25 Comments

    Montage's stated set top box revenue is not consistent with its reputation as a very minor player; other brands dominate Montage by 10:1 to 35:1 among suppliers and finished goods.
    Montage produces the majority of chips in a 5 million chip per month black market; China's government recently ordered them to "stop illegal production and sales activities immediately".
    Excluding illegal chips, Montage trades at roughly 10x revenue. Neither PDSTI nor anyone else is likely to buy MONT at this price. Any of numerous catalysts could drop MONT precipitously.

Aberhound

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #626 on: June 11, 2014, 02:15:24 PM »
SC on speculation that the lower earnings are due to the conservative reserving while the credit portfolio is improving due to the Chrysler deal. I think the new Chrysler/Fiat vehicles are great so they are likely to grow market share. This means at least 9 more years of good growth. I agree with SD that the company is in a position from its scale and expertise from Santander to bleed the competitors such as Ally white. We are mid cycle and I expect more jobs as manufacturing moves back to US primarily due to cheap energy and faster innovation adoption. Good interest margins like this are likely to become scarce. People love their cars keeping margins fat. Finally car sharing technologies will help the poor increase the utilization of cars so they are better able to afford the payments. Can't make your payment? Sign up with Uber as a driver and work during peak hours.

thepupil

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #627 on: June 11, 2014, 04:17:39 PM »
Most likely MONT is a fraud. But with PDSTI acquisition, shorting it may be too dangerous ? PDSTI could acquire it and IPO in Chinese stock market.



MONT Jan 2015 20 - 15 put spreads at 55 cents

Tilson Right, Chinese company is a fraud buyout not real:     8 Profit
Tilson Wrong, Chinese company is a fraud but buyout real: -1 Loss

http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MONT?s=mont


Why I Just Made Montage Technology Group My Largest Short Position
Whitney Tilson Today, 12:30 PM 2 Comments
China Orders Montage Technology To Cease Production And Sale
Aristides Capital Today, 8:13 AM 25 Comments

    Montage's stated set top box revenue is not consistent with its reputation as a very minor player; other brands dominate Montage by 10:1 to 35:1 among suppliers and finished goods.
    Montage produces the majority of chips in a 5 million chip per month black market; China's government recently ordered them to "stop illegal production and sales activities immediately".
    Excluding illegal chips, Montage trades at roughly 10x revenue. Neither PDSTI nor anyone else is likely to buy MONT at this price. Any of numerous catalysts could drop MONT precipitously.
Yep that's why I bought put spreads that pay you $5 if it's fraud for the premium of 55 cents. I also would t short this for fear of halt risk and borrow risk. Some guys who successfully identified frauds got destroyed by borrow when share were halted for months. Anyways, the base case is obviously thT the deal goes through and I lose my money, but when you see a company that has delayed SEC filings announce a buyout 20 minutes after a seeking alpha article cries fraud and the acquirer is some state owned thing, I think it's a decent bet to taken given the odds the options market is giving you. Obviously to be done in small size. I know people have mixed feelings about tilson, but I think I agree with him that betting against this thing is a good risk reward , and the put spreads make it more appealing.

gary17

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #628 on: June 12, 2014, 03:18:33 PM »
this is a 50c dollar - and the value can be realized immediately:

https://www.groupon.com/deals/starbucks-2-2010


no_free_lunch

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #629 on: June 12, 2014, 03:23:47 PM »
Interesting gary..  it doesn't exactly scale though, does it? :)