Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 2198205 times)

no_free_lunch

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #820 on: November 17, 2014, 06:41:57 AM »
OAK

Howard Marks, relatively cheap, some hedging as they will do best during times of distress.   I think stock is down right now because the dividend has been low for past few quarters.  It is basically a bet that divvy will bounce back at some point.   Certainly not my most researched stock but come on, it's Howard Marks!


PatientCheetah

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #821 on: November 17, 2014, 09:07:11 AM »
ASPS
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Ross812

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #822 on: November 17, 2014, 12:37:39 PM »
ASPS

ASPS as well. I almost doubled my position today. Ex. OCN and Insurance kickbacks you still have ~50M in net income. This is 21x for a business growing at 25-35% yoy, a good value. Add to this any of the 100M+ of OCN related revenue (ex insurance kickbacks) and you are paying a sliding scale of 7-21x for company with a long runway of 25%+ growth in front of it.
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Fat Pitch

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #823 on: November 18, 2014, 08:27:05 AM »
ASPS

ASPS as well. I almost doubled my position today. Ex. OCN and Insurance kickbacks you still have ~50M in net income. This is 21x for a business growing at 25-35% yoy, a good value. Add to this any of the 100M+ of OCN related revenue (ex insurance kickbacks) and you are paying a sliding scale of 7-21x for company with a long runway of 25%+ growth in front of it.

What are the odds Erbey doesn't take ASPS private?  I would hate to load up just to see a take-under from management.
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yadayada

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #824 on: November 18, 2014, 08:38:12 AM »
Wouldn't they need a lot more then 51% to do that? Seems like something like that would just attract a lot of negative unnecesairy attention in this already negative enviroment.

Ross812

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #825 on: November 18, 2014, 09:50:36 AM »
ASPS

ASPS as well. I almost doubled my position today. Ex. OCN and Insurance kickbacks you still have ~50M in net income. This is 21x for a business growing at 25-35% yoy, a good value. Add to this any of the 100M+ of OCN related revenue (ex insurance kickbacks) and you are paying a sliding scale of 7-21x for company with a long runway of 25%+ growth in front of it.

What are the odds Erbey doesn't take ASPS private?  I would hate to load up just to see a take-under from management.

That's a tough question. What are the circumstances where it would make sense for Erbey to take ASPS private?

1- The reason Erbey has the OCN-ASPS setup he does is to maintain control of cash thrown off by servicing OCN's assets. About 40% of ASPS revenue does not come from OCN. So ASPS would survive if OCN were to close up shop. Erbey may use the money from an OCN runoff to buy ASPS shares at 20x non OCN net income. Certainly not a bad deal for him, but I believe he would go after another debt servicing co as it is his bread and butter, not software services.   

2- If OCN stays in business, ASPS will continue to run more or less as usual. ASPS buy back ~4M shares ($200M w/ leverage) at low price. This would bring Erbey's share 35%. He could take it private with PE money at this point. I'm not sure this is in Erbey's interest, it is much easier to control ASPS when you have a bunch of dumb money holding the majority of your firm rather than concentrating ownership with investment banks.

I view (1) as unlikely to happen. Why run a software company when he can buy back into a debt servicer? He could use the money generated by ASPS during an OCN runoff to repurchase shares along with leverage and increase his ownership to 35%+ and not have to answer to investment bankers and PE managers when running ASPS.

I think (2) could definitely happen. If this scenario plays out, surely the share price would recover somewhat and any buyout would likely be at a 20%+ premium.

To rephrase: I think ASPS minus OCN is not attractive to Erbey, and I think ASPS is too cheap if OCN stays in the picture.     
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Hawks

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #826 on: November 18, 2014, 10:49:15 AM »
RDC

randomep

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #827 on: November 18, 2014, 12:02:40 PM »
Riken Keiki (TSE:7734)

frommi

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #828 on: November 19, 2014, 11:26:56 AM »
Finished buying my japanese basket today. Bought 9628, 1782, 4624, 9776, 7292, 5965, 7399 and 7297 over the last 2 months and have now around 25% of my networth in this basket.
Again thanks west for your incredible research!

Hawks

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #829 on: November 20, 2014, 07:10:51 AM »
phg - finally spinning off the lighting/automotive business. Healthcare business should do well. Southeastern (Longleaf) just increased their position.