Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 2195989 times)

Lance

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #940 on: January 12, 2015, 09:30:25 AM »
QIWI

Thanks,
Lance


berkshire101

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #941 on: January 12, 2015, 10:04:42 AM »
QIWI

Thanks,
Lance

I'm hoping to buy some more too below $20 a share!  :)

Patmo

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #942 on: January 12, 2015, 07:10:52 PM »
Quote
I think the diversification into the US for most will ultimately lessen the blow but the market has to drop by 40%+ (whether in a year or over a period of years).
Schwab, which market will drop by 40%?  Housing, energy stocks, tsx?

Housing prices have to correct by 40% over time in real terms. If there's a 10% drop over 5 years with 4% growth then we are 30% of the way there. Just about every metric for Canada points to housing being 100% overpriced and the average of the metrics implies 40% drop is necessary. Unless money leaves these housing prices can persist but lending is dropping for a reason (which makes the problem worse faster). EDIT: To go with this, the US housing market is still overvalued because numerous interferences stopped the market from dropping. We will likely see flat housing prices with fast GDP growth to finish the correction while Canada may not have the luxury of positive GDP to save them.

Also, the point of maximum pessimism is not even close for the Canadian housing market. If anything, this is maximum exuberance.

Yeah no kidding, don't know what this other guy is talking about with his maximum pessimism. Everybody's still leveraging themselves up the ass for crappy homes at 10x their salary, and singing about it.

Back on topic, I picked up a few more shares of KRN Karnalyte. Keeping it a small position, but pretty excited about the prospects of a company trading at 55% net cash, with a catalyst in early stages of ignition. It's like a net-net on steroids...

benchmark

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #943 on: January 12, 2015, 09:06:26 PM »
Quote
I think the diversification into the US for most will ultimately lessen the blow but the market has to drop by 40%+ (whether in a year or over a period of years).
Schwab, which market will drop by 40%?  Housing, energy stocks, tsx?

Housing prices have to correct by 40% over time in real terms. If there's a 10% drop over 5 years with 4% growth then we are 30% of the way there. Just about every metric for Canada points to housing being 100% overpriced and the average of the metrics implies 40% drop is necessary. Unless money leaves these housing prices can persist but lending is dropping for a reason (which makes the problem worse faster). EDIT: To go with this, the US housing market is still overvalued because numerous interferences stopped the market from dropping. We will likely see flat housing prices with fast GDP growth to finish the correction while Canada may not have the luxury of positive GDP to save them.

Also, the point of maximum pessimism is not even close for the Canadian housing market. If anything, this is maximum exuberance.

Yeah no kidding, don't know what this other guy is talking about with his maximum pessimism. Everybody's still leveraging themselves up the ass for crappy homes at 10x their salary, and singing about it.

Back on topic, I picked up a few more shares of KRN Karnalyte. Keeping it a small position, but pretty excited about the prospects of a company trading at 55% net cash, with a catalyst in early stages of ignition. It's like a net-net on steroids...

BAC Jan17 leaps

berkshire101

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #944 on: January 13, 2015, 06:44:22 AM »
Started a position in PCLN and added more CLB.

frommi

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #945 on: January 15, 2015, 06:36:34 AM »
Finished building a 10% position in AIQ. 2015 will be my concentration test year, i have now 50% in 3 stocks and 80% in 6. I am still under the impression that i am sufficient diversified.

Uccmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #946 on: January 15, 2015, 08:08:44 AM »
In the past few days:

Mullen Trucking: MTL - originally an oil services trucking company.  They have diversified into trucking across Canada, which will do well in the cheap fuel environment.  I held this in 2005 to 2008.  FFH bought private notes from Mullen in 2009 to help Mullen survive the crunch and of course make money for Fairfax.  Really well run and easy to understand. 

ARX - Arc Resources - Smallish position.  I held this in 2005-2008 time as well.  Very well run, large E&P company.  Well hedged into this downturn. 

Russell Metals - RUS - huge metal distributor.  Trading down due to part of its business being related to the oil industry.  One concern: Dividend payout is close to 100% but they can probably handle it.  It is basically an inventory turn company.  Non-oil business may accelerate in the US and Canada. 

FN - Canadian mortgage company - 70% privately held.  This is my mortgage company, and the largest non- bank mortgage lender in Canada.  I am still working on understanding it fully.  It is basically a mortgage securitization company.  I am trying to determine their liability to the mortgages they have securitized.  They dont do commercial real estate at all. 

I will add that I am not commenting further on any of these for now.  If you are interested, read the financials and come to your own conclusions.  I dont want to influence anyone with my viewpoints.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2015, 08:10:43 AM by Uccmal »
GARP tending toward value

no_free_lunch

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #947 on: January 15, 2015, 10:10:56 AM »
BAC common.  Thanks to all who have posted to the thread, some excellent analysis in there.

wachtwoord

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #948 on: January 15, 2015, 10:44:08 AM »
CLB and NOV
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kirkomi

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #949 on: January 15, 2015, 10:55:03 PM »
Finished building a 10% position in AIQ. 2015 will be my concentration test year, i have now 50% in 3 stocks and 80% in 6. I am still under the impression that i am sufficient diversified.

I can't find any new ideas. Would you mind sharing the names. I will like to do my due diligence.

Regards.
Success is like pregnancy. Everybody congratulates you but nobody knows how many times you got fucked to achieve it.

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