Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 2195771 times)

giofranchi

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #1090 on: April 24, 2015, 01:44:12 AM »
I am buying FFH today...

Reflect your belief that is attractively priced? Or are dollar-cost averaging?

I think it is attractively priced… As a very long term investment and if a more difficult environment awaits us.

In case something goes wrong with this global deleveraging, and we actually get to see deflation or a stock market that goes down and stays down for some time (or both), FFH imo might truly succeed in compounding at 15% annual.

If FFH compounds at 15% annual, there is no reason why 10 years from now it won’t trade at the same multiple it is trading today. This of course would mean a 15% CAGR for my investment.

Of course it won’t happen if central banks succeed in resolving our debt situation without any harmful consequences, and if the stock market keeps marching upward undisturbed.

Gio
« Last Edit: April 24, 2015, 01:46:36 AM by giofranchi »
Portfolio: AAPL, AMZN, BABA, BOSS, BRK.B, FB, FFH, FIH.U, FINX, FWONA, GOOG, IBB, JPM, LBRDA, MKL, NKE, QQQ, SFTBF, SMH, TCEHY, V, XBI, XT


simplefocus

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #1091 on: April 24, 2015, 04:40:23 AM »
NRCIB

It should be trading at 6x of A shares (NRCIA).. huge mispricing.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2015, 08:42:13 AM by simplefocus »

rpadebet

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #1092 on: April 24, 2015, 05:50:22 AM »
NRCIB

It should be trading at 6x of A shares (NRCIA).. huge misprice.

Its been like this for a while now and for good reason...
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/nrcibnrcia-interesting-2-class-structure/msg216349/#msg216349
You can't connect the dots looking forward you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something: your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever.
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Ross812

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #1093 on: April 24, 2015, 07:19:51 AM »
Added to Altius and Amex.

Bought a new position: HOG
96% Fixed Income CDs, Muni, Corporate Debt - 4% SPX Options

sleepydragon

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #1094 on: April 24, 2015, 07:48:10 AM »
Added to Altius and Amex.

Bought a new position: HOG

Why HOG? It seems a dying business. Younger people dont buy HOG and current fans are retiring.

frommi

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #1095 on: April 24, 2015, 10:47:11 AM »
Sold Intralot and AIQ and started my summer hedging program. Bought Gold, TLT, IWM Puts and shorted XBI. Still hold FFH, OUTR and NWH.AX.
I just can`t get rid of the bear inside of me, i have that nagging feeling that the bull market ends this summer with at least a 20% correction. Its about time.

netnet

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #1096 on: April 24, 2015, 10:54:56 AM »
I am buying FFH today...

Reflect your belief that is attractively priced? Or are dollar-cost averaging?

I think it is attractively priced… As a very long term investment and if a more difficult environment awaits us.

In case something goes wrong with this global deleveraging, and we actually get to see deflation or a stock market that goes down and stays down for some time (or both), FFH imo might truly succeed in compounding at 15% annual.

If FFH compounds at 15% annual, there is no reason why 10 years from now it won’t trade at the same multiple it is trading today. This of course would mean a 15% CAGR for my investment.

Of course it won’t happen if central banks succeed in resolving our debt situation without any harmful consequences, and if the stock market keeps marching upward undisturbed.

Gio

You like it at current price/ book?.  If that is so, I will wait for the reputed " post Gio buying, drop in price" to buy some 8)

tombgrt

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #1097 on: April 24, 2015, 11:02:19 AM »
Sold Intralot and AIQ and started my summer hedging program. Bought Gold, TLT, IWM Puts and shorted XBI. Still hold FFH, OUTR and NWH.AX.
I just can`t get rid of the bear inside of me, i have that nagging feeling that the bull market ends this summer with at least a 20% correction. Its about time.

Damn, you really have a skittish mind!  ;) Selling dimes on the dollar imo for a market correction that might happen and could impact the stock price of your stocks.

Bought some EUROB last week sub $0.10 and more NTLS below $4.5 a few weeks ago. Corrections be damned! They are the reason I buy anything in the first place.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2015, 11:06:28 AM by tombgrt »

Ross812

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #1098 on: April 24, 2015, 11:06:34 AM »
Added to Altius and Amex.

Bought a new position: HOG

Why HOG? It seems a dying business. Younger people dont buy HOG and current fans are retiring.

HOG sells ~40% of their bikes overseas and the strong dollar is hurting their foreign business right now. International growth is still intact and their domestic growth, though slow, is positive. This has been the case since 2005. Q1 '15 was weak and the stock sold off. The market is taking Q1 as the start of the real decline of the brand and is pricing it at a PE and P/FCF lower than any period over the last ten years aside from 2009.

As for the future of the brand: I'm not sure HOG doesn't have young fans. Their bikes are expensive and young people cannot afford to buy them. The 20 and 30 somethings zipping around on crotch rockets are going to trade them in one day for something comfortable. The 20-30 somethings that give up their bikes will still have a midlife crisis in their 50's and go out and buy a bike. I really cannot think of a brand with a stronger following. I wonder how many hippies in the 60 and 70's were buying hogs? A bunch of those hippies own Harleys now...
96% Fixed Income CDs, Muni, Corporate Debt - 4% SPX Options

frommi

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #1099 on: April 24, 2015, 11:43:54 AM »
Damn, you really have a skittish mind!  ;) Selling dimes on the dollar imo for a market correction that might happen and could impact the stock price of your stocks.

Bought some EUROB last week sub $0.10 and more NTLS below $4.5 a few weeks ago. Corrections be damned! They are the reason I buy anything in the first place.

Perhaps i do it wrong, but thats the way i can sleep at night. I will probably never post a year with a return of >50%, but i am pretty sure that i will never post a year with a 30-50% loss either.
With Intralot i fear the GR-Exit and the loss of the high margin contracts in Romania?/Greece they mentioned in the last call. Made me think about what i really understand of that business.
AIQ may be worth holding, but i didn`t want to lose my profits and i was not sure if i am mentally able to hold it when they tank below 19$ and they are not able to grow EBITDA. (or even worse) And i really hate how the stock price has moved, there is a big barrier around 25/26$ now.

The next stocks i buy will be better businesses with growth, a moat and where i truly understand the business, that gives me a lot more confidence to hold for longer.  (And especially over the summer).