What are you buying today?

[CorpRaider]

I'm going to have to decline the (perceived) invitation to an internet pissing match.  In any case, I must respect my elder, since you whipped out the learned ancient biker card. haha. 

I suppose if you really think you're a good touchstone for the mass affluent motorcycle consumer in the U.S. (and all the markets around the world that will follow that lead), then you won't buy any HOG.  I don't own any yet, but I do not think one could replicate the brand very easily and I don't think there's anything even close as a peer in the space.  It reminds me a lot of DE with perhaps weaker asian competition.

[james22]

"Rice burner" and "crotch rocket" betray your sensibilities, you whippersnapper.

And I recognize I'm in the minority, just correcting your market size estimate.

HOG might be a buy, dunno.

I only have the sense that their Project Rushmore has been pretty well received?

But that may be only in the motorcycle press, who rate things that Harley owners do not (reference their like of V-Rod versus its rejection by the Harley faithful).

And I could see Indian becoming a peer (but again, I'm not the target audience).

What do you think of their bikes?

Maybe Polaris is the better buy.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2014/02/11/resurgent-indian-motorcycles-could-hurt-domestic-sales-of-harley-davidson/

http://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/news/2014/01/31/in-motorcycle-contest-is-indian.html?page=all

[CorpRaider]

Yeah, I think you've got a good point.  I was going to say, in honesty, there are a lot more feasible affordable domestic options now than back when I went with the Ducati.  A purely unionized workforce is a no on the decision tree for me no matter what else.  A company like Boeing where they have some hand with the union given the southern plants is ok, but they've got HOG by the short and curlys.  So I guess it is an automatic pass for me.  Polaris really might be a better option, they have Victory as well.  Thanks for the discussion.  All the rice burner and whatnot was supposed to be "tongue in cheek", (I guess that doesn't come through on the internet) I've had two honda dirt bikes and I loved them so much I would ride until I got injured every time out (much better and more likely to start than the Husky's and Cagiva's my pops and brother had).  My uncle tours all over the darn country and up to Canada on his BMW.  He's a tough old bird.  WAY more than I could handle. haha.

[james22]

It'll be interesting to see if the Harley-Indian rivalry splits or expands the market.

[giofranchi]

But while I expect central banks to fail, I do also expect Fairfax will drop initially with the market before the realization it is what Fairfax is positioned for.

I am not so sure about it…

If FFH only had lots of cash to use in a market correction, I would agree with you. But FFH also has equity hedges that probably will make more money than the money it would lose on its equity investments, FFH also has a bond portfolio that will probably make even more money in a difficult environment, and FFH also has CPI-linked derivative contracts that could turn-out to be great winners in a deflationary environment.

Therefore, FFH will actually make more money in a difficult environment than in a muddle through environment. I think the market knows this, but it is simply expecting the muddle through scenario to be much more likely than the deflationary one.

If and when conditions change, who knows what might happen to FFH’s stock price?

Cheers,

Gio

[frommi]

Shorted more XBI, VRX and TIME.

[ERICOPOLY]

Therefore, FFH will actually make more money in a difficult environment than in a muddle through environment. I think the market knows this, but it is simply expecting the muddle through scenario to be much more likely than the deflationary one.

Also true at the end of 2007...

As the book value was growing, the price of the stock dropped from around $287 at the end of 2007 to around $218 by late summer 2008 (in the days before the short-selling ban).

Like Fairfax, there were blue chip companies that never saw an earnings decline (like Coca Cola) and they too had contractions in their market multiples.

My guess is that in the next panic the market multiples will once again slip, even for the strongest companies.  Including Fairfax.

[writser]

Agreed. I also think it is, well, let's call it "optimistic" to predict the market will price certain stocks rationally during the next crisis. In fact, to predict anything at all about the next crisis.

[ERICOPOLY]

By the end of 2009 Fairfax's stock was priced at $410 with a book value of $369.80.

It was 1.1x book value.

Five years later at the end of 2014, book value had grown by a cumulative 6.7% to $395.

A compound annual growth rate of less than 1.5%.

The share price has grown 49% over the same period.

6.7% cumulative increase in book value per share, and rewarded with a share price increase of 49%.

Just saying...  today's multiple is not a crisis multiple.

[PatientCheetah]

Started a small short on IBB, noticed a few massive stock price drops due to drug approval failures recently, maybe over time, those failures will remind biotech investors that those stocks have large risks and are not one way bets