Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 1450671 times)

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4340 on: November 07, 2019, 12:24:26 PM »
Bought some more AYR. Here's hoping this bitch finally bottomed...

Looks like it paid off well for you. Nice call!

Hardly out of the woods yet, but hoping to get there soon.


boilermaker75

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4341 on: November 07, 2019, 02:57:09 PM »
Wrote HPQ 19-strike Nov 22 expiration puts for $0.35 per share--a risk arbitrage play.

no_free_lunch

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4342 on: November 07, 2019, 05:05:53 PM »
NHI.  Just a defensive pick.  Trying to put a bit of my cash to work.

frommi

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4343 on: November 07, 2019, 10:16:36 PM »
LON:IMB, too cheap to pass now. My only concern is that i am nearly 40% in tobacco stocks now.

villainx

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4344 on: November 09, 2019, 06:56:35 PM »
Bought some more AYR. Here's hoping this bitch finally bottomed...

Looks like it paid off well for you. Nice call!

Hardly out of the woods yet, but hoping to get there soon.

If you don't mind, what is the plan for situations like these?  Is there a % or price in mind, or something else? 

I always wonder about these - would you say it's special/unique - situations.  Even with a or multiple pop(s), but what is suppose to be the exit?

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4345 on: November 10, 2019, 07:21:48 AM »
Bought some more AYR. Here's hoping this bitch finally bottomed...

Looks like it paid off well for you. Nice call!

Hardly out of the woods yet, but hoping to get there soon.

If you don't mind, what is the plan for situations like these?  Is there a % or price in mind, or something else? 

I always wonder about these - would you say it's special/unique - situations.  Even with a or multiple pop(s), but what is suppose to be the exit?

Its never really "this" or "that" exactly, if that makes sense. I'll try to explain further the thought process.

I really love looking for investments that some may call orphaned, or otherwise just check a lot of boxes in terms of things that put people off for no good reason. So with something like AYR, you have that in spades. Its been covered much more in detail on the AYR thread, but summarizing, you first had the marijuana bubble craze and this was all retail fueled. All institutional or sophisticated investors basically wrote it off then. The bubble popped, and all of the retails folks then took a bath as well. Somewhere in between AYR came along as a SPAC convert. Again, refer to the AYR thread if you wish, but it just made sense for me.

The adding into the investment of, which I did plenty of, was a little nuts given the volatility, but I was fortunately to kind of catch the falling knife in bulk closer to the $10 number rather than the mid teens where I took the first tracking position. It's now about a 4-5% position for me, which is a reasonable one. One the technical side, yea theres been a couple days where you've had several $ swings in the share price for no real reason. I typically have a rule of thumb that if anything I buy goes +15-20% or more the same day, just sell it, take the extraordinary gains, and re-evaluate tomorrow, basically in the same exact spot as you were prior, minus your fat one day gain.

I don't really have a set price target per say. I think a floor price target would be high teens or so. 7.5x $110M estimated 2020 EBITDA for a growth company like this isn't unreasonable. However on the other hand, I am also inclined to just let things play out and see if they can hit numbers and see where this goes. This is definitely a sector/special situation where you are capable of getting the retail rush back and going whacky; in which case, again AYR, is kind of positioned to be a premier marijuana play vs poo poo like Cronos and Tilray.


cameronfen

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4346 on: November 10, 2019, 04:58:19 PM »
^ also in a redux i think the other commenters were confused and thought you were talking about Aircastle again. 

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4347 on: November 10, 2019, 05:07:27 PM »
^ also in a redux i think the other commenters were confused and thought you were talking about Aircastle again.

Haha, didn't even notice. Wish I bought Aircastle.

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4348 on: Today at 12:04:22 PM »
Modestly increased my position in the World's Most Famous Arena @266