Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 1528084 times)

Castanza

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4470 on: January 09, 2020, 07:56:02 AM »
Adding to $DISCA, $BP, $WMB, $T
« Last Edit: January 09, 2020, 08:02:33 AM by Castanza »


spartansaver

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4471 on: January 09, 2020, 08:33:37 AM »
Been trading FVE. Maybe something interesting for you special situation folks after restructuring.

It's wild the influence that some bloggers have. It got posted on Clark Street yesterday midday after it had been posted on Twitter the night before by @valuewacatalyst and it's up nearly 60%.

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4472 on: January 09, 2020, 09:45:06 AM »
Hedged out the bulk of my GM position. Lightened up in high $30's a few months ago and have locked into a trade that makes this now or never with capped downside. Incompetent management and naive shareholders are a recipe for basically what this company has been since its IPO. Things are not dandy when your stock has gone no where, dividend hasn't been raised in years, buybacks nonexistent, and ratings agencies considering your debt-junk. Yet some continue to tell themselves things are great; probably fueled by Buffett inspired "value investor" wisdom.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2020, 10:01:13 AM by Gregmal »

JRM

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4473 on: January 09, 2020, 04:20:56 PM »
Hedged out the bulk of my GM position. Lightened up in high $30's a few months ago and have locked into a trade that makes this now or never with capped downside. Incompetent management and naive shareholders are a recipe for basically what this company has been since its IPO. Things are not dandy when your stock has gone no where, dividend hasn't been raised in years, buybacks nonexistent, and ratings agencies considering your debt-junk. Yet some continue to tell themselves things are great; probably fueled by Buffett inspired "value investor" wisdom.

Don't forget pissing away money on Lyft, Maven, and probably Cruise.

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4474 on: January 09, 2020, 04:28:50 PM »
Hedged out the bulk of my GM position. Lightened up in high $30's a few months ago and have locked into a trade that makes this now or never with capped downside. Incompetent management and naive shareholders are a recipe for basically what this company has been since its IPO. Things are not dandy when your stock has gone no where, dividend hasn't been raised in years, buybacks nonexistent, and ratings agencies considering your debt-junk. Yet some continue to tell themselves things are great; probably fueled by Buffett inspired "value investor" wisdom.

Don't forget pissing away money on Lyft, Maven, and probably Cruise.

While Ive long liked Cruise, it is hard now not to view it through the tainted lens of Softbank being the main reason it's considered a home run...

Spekulatius

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4475 on: January 09, 2020, 06:36:19 PM »
Hedged out the bulk of my GM position. Lightened up in high $30's a few months ago and have locked into a trade that makes this now or never with capped downside. Incompetent management and naive shareholders are a recipe for basically what this company has been since its IPO. Things are not dandy when your stock has gone no where, dividend hasn't been raised in years, buybacks nonexistent, and ratings agencies considering your debt-junk. Yet some continue to tell themselves things are great; probably fueled by Buffett inspired "value investor" wisdom.

Don't forget pissing away money on Lyft, Maven, and probably Cruise.

While Ive long liked Cruise, it is hard now not to view it through the tainted lens of Softbank being the main reason it's considered a home run...

All the car companies except Tesla have been trading like junk for the last 12 month almost without exception. that includes Europe, and to a to a lesser degree Japan. They are like the c malls of the industrials.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4476 on: January 09, 2020, 06:48:59 PM »
Hedged out the bulk of my GM position. Lightened up in high $30's a few months ago and have locked into a trade that makes this now or never with capped downside. Incompetent management and naive shareholders are a recipe for basically what this company has been since its IPO. Things are not dandy when your stock has gone no where, dividend hasn't been raised in years, buybacks nonexistent, and ratings agencies considering your debt-junk. Yet some continue to tell themselves things are great; probably fueled by Buffett inspired "value investor" wisdom.

Don't forget pissing away money on Lyft, Maven, and probably Cruise.

While Ive long liked Cruise, it is hard now not to view it through the tainted lens of Softbank being the main reason it's considered a home run...

All the car companies except Tesla have been trading like junk for the last 12 month almost without exception. that includes Europe, and to a to a lesser degree Japan. They are like the c malls of the industrials.

For sure, with regard to the sentiment, but 2019 was yet another record year for auto sales(in $ figures). The problem is they are terrible allocators. E&P companies are probably better peers than the malls. They make tons of money in good years but give none of it back to shareholders because dumb career industry folks run the companies based on out dated and inefficient theories for "what you're supposed to do". Then during the bad years... shit gets ugly.

As my bearishness on the overall market has grown, GM has started to bother me more. If this is how they perform in a record market, I probably dont want to be around for when things stop going perfectly.

Spekulatius

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4477 on: January 09, 2020, 06:59:46 PM »
Hedged out the bulk of my GM position. Lightened up in high $30's a few months ago and have locked into a trade that makes this now or never with capped downside. Incompetent management and naive shareholders are a recipe for basically what this company has been since its IPO. Things are not dandy when your stock has gone no where, dividend hasn't been raised in years, buybacks nonexistent, and ratings agencies considering your debt-junk. Yet some continue to tell themselves things are great; probably fueled by Buffett inspired "value investor" wisdom.

Don't forget pissing away money on Lyft, Maven, and probably Cruise.

While Ive long liked Cruise, it is hard now not to view it through the tainted lens of Softbank being the main reason it's considered a home run...

All the car companies except Tesla have been trading like junk for the last 12 month almost without exception. that includes Europe, and to a to a lesser degree Japan. They are like the c malls of the industrials.

For sure, with regard to the sentiment, but 2019 was yet another record year for auto sales(in $ figures). The problem is they are terrible allocators. E&P companies are probably better peers than the malls. They make tons of money in good years but give none of it back to shareholders because dumb career industry folks run the companies based on out dated and inefficient theories for "what you're supposed to do". Then during the bad years... shit gets ugly.

As my bearishness on the overall market has grown, GM has started to bother me more. If this is how they perform in a record market, I probably dont want to be around for when things stop going perfectly.

How would you run GM better? Large buybacks may not be the best course of action because the stock really didnít move. In a way it would be wasted.

GM will bleed probably bleed $10B+ In cash during a recession because they would need to spent on new models and because the industry is in transition on electrification and self driving cars. There isnít an easy way out, the business is a value trap.

If I had to buy one stock, it would be FCAU. They are winning market share in trucks and the merger with Peugeot will fix their ailing European business hopefully.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4478 on: January 09, 2020, 07:28:06 PM »
Yea FCAU has long been a regret of mine. Its been the better investment, largely because Machionne was a world class manager.

With GM, you cant be a growth company when revenue isn't going anywhere. You cant be a dividend play, when you cant even bump the payout a mid single digit % every year. You cant be a buyback machine if you refuse to buyback stock, and you cant be a conservative company with a strong balance sheet when you are teetering on junk status.

So, I'm not an auto executive and Im not arrogant enough to say I have the formula for running an auto company. But what I do know, is that I would find an identity and just stick to that. GM has half assed everything which is why its gotten credit for nothing. They've gotten some push from shareholders occasionally, and like with Tepper, done enough to shut them up for a bit, and then revert back to bad behavior. Einhorn had a flawed presentation, but the right idea with the dividend shares, and then growth shares. I also think the ship sailed on Cruise. There was a huge opportunity to IPO that in Hong Kong, or even here, and they did nothing. Now its hard not to question that valuation, given it may be another Softbank special.

The right move IMO, which would obviously never happen, would be to shut the sedans, sell/JV the truck lines to Toyota or VW(someone dying to get into the NA truck market) and then become a pure play EV/autonomous driving company with only modest exposure to the best parts of "old auto".

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4479 on: January 10, 2020, 10:04:56 AM »
Picked up a few DD as close to $60 as I could