Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 1528085 times)

StevieV

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4480 on: January 10, 2020, 11:39:05 AM »
Yea FCAU has long been a regret of mine. Its been the better investment, largely because Machionne was a world class manager.

With GM, you cant be a growth company when revenue isn't going anywhere. You cant be a dividend play, when you cant even bump the payout a mid single digit % every year. You cant be a buyback machine if you refuse to buyback stock, and you cant be a conservative company with a strong balance sheet when you are teetering on junk status.

So, I'm not an auto executive and Im not arrogant enough to say I have the formula for running an auto company. But what I do know, is that I would find an identity and just stick to that. GM has half assed everything which is why its gotten credit for nothing. They've gotten some push from shareholders occasionally, and like with Tepper, done enough to shut them up for a bit, and then revert back to bad behavior. Einhorn had a flawed presentation, but the right idea with the dividend shares, and then growth shares. I also think the ship sailed on Cruise. There was a huge opportunity to IPO that in Hong Kong, or even here, and they did nothing. Now its hard not to question that valuation, given it may be another Softbank special.

The right move IMO, which would obviously never happen, would be to shut the sedans, sell/JV the truck lines to Toyota or VW(someone dying to get into the NA truck market) and then become a pure play EV/autonomous driving company with only modest exposure to the best parts of "old auto".

Just thinking out loud here.  They aren't going to become a growth company.  Seems like you'd want to - sure up the balance sheet; buyback shares; steadily raise the dividend --> in that order.

I don't think that you want to get caught flat-footed on electric or autonomous, but I am not sure overspending in either area makes sense.

Regarding EVs, I'm not sure what GM's plans are, but I wouldn't go rushing into launching all kinds of electric vehicle models.  Why rush to launch a bunch of unprofitable vehicles that aren't demanded by the marketplace?  Certainly prepare, but I don't think it is necessary to launch huge lines until there is demand and potential profit and battery tech to make them attractive (I am not familiar with all regulatory issues).  Launch EVs when you can be successful with them.  I'm not sure early unsuccessful generations help.  Did the Bolt and Volt help (though I admit, I though that a plug-in hybrid was a good idea)?

I may be way off base, but I don't see EVs as a huge technical challenge for the car companies.  We've been told repeatedly how simple electric motors are.  They aren't developing the battery cells and chemistries (I don't believe).

I think AVs are a huge technical challenge and something else you don't want to miss on, but maybe GM should have moved the other way.  Let Mobileye or someone else do the heavy lifting.  Implement it in your cars.  The type of tech needed for AVs aren't what I would consider in GM's typical wheelhouse.

That would leave GM in a not great part of the business - car manufacturing.  However, it would at least be in their wheelhouse.

Anyway, just thinking out loud.


CorpRaider

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4481 on: January 10, 2020, 12:09:55 PM »
One reason I decided to sell my GM warrants and never look back was that it appears there are huge, unstated, (mostly) contingent claims of stakeholders (i.e., dealers, unions, and politicians (jobs jobs jobs).  Arguably Tesla (and other new entrants) don't operate with the same huge debt-like claims on future earnings/road blocks to rational operations from the dealer, unions, suppliers, and/or governments etc...as a "national champion"/massive quasi-captive entities, at least at this point.  I guess it is maybe not so different than any other industry where the incumbent can't or won't cannibalize its existing business/relationships.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2020, 05:35:32 PM by CorpRaider »

Spekulatius

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4482 on: January 10, 2020, 02:48:41 PM »
Picked up a few DD as close to $60 as I could

Same here. Price action looks very weak. I think we will get mid fifty prices in a general stock market correction. I did notice some smaller insider sales (Breen etc) at the end of last year.

Edit : also added a bit of LBTYK.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2020, 07:15:03 PM by Spekulatius »
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

gjangal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4483 on: January 10, 2020, 03:25:59 PM »
Added DLTR and AMZN

james22

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4484 on: January 13, 2020, 05:48:00 AM »
VGELX
BRK, BAM l SV, EM l Energy l Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac l Stable Value, Cash Value of Pension

newtovalue

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4485 on: January 13, 2020, 04:34:02 PM »
Picked up DISCK - still trading in the mid teens FCF, and now that their Debt is at a level with which they are comfortable, they will look to buyback more stock

Lance

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4486 on: January 14, 2020, 07:01:00 AM »
WFC

Thanks
Lance

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4487 on: January 14, 2020, 07:01:52 AM »
bought a little more MSGN

Castanza

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4488 on: January 14, 2020, 07:18:56 AM »

lnofeisone

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4489 on: January 14, 2020, 08:28:25 AM »
+1 on this. Definitely getting some shares put to me lest we hit 52 before Friday.