Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 2206567 times)

fareastwarriors

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #6380 on: February 23, 2021, 07:44:00 AM »
I opened the short position at the close when they joined the S&P at 695 / share.  I added to the short from time to time to end up with an average basis of about 836.  I don't want to hold large short positions in individual stocks and much prefer to be short an index or ETF.  Obviously I still think Tesla is valued far too richly but I am happy to close out the risk for now.  I would not be surprised at all if Tesla continued down much lower.

Thanks for sharing your thought process. Congrats on some (quick) nice gains.


Ice77

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #6381 on: February 23, 2021, 07:55:41 AM »
I like Wildbrain too, Old West's Q4 letter had a helpful write-up.

Wildbrain posted a strong Q2, but my main concern is the leverage ratio.  While it's improving (they plan to bring it down to the mid-4x level by end of their Fiscal 2022), it's still quite high.  Do you see this as a concern?

(And agree we should start a separate thread on this!)

Their operating cash flow run-rate is ~$100m while interest paid on LT debt is a third of that.  Not too bad. The leverage covenant is at 6.75 so they are within that for now and with the leverage expected to fall to 4s it should be fine. Their term facility doesn't mature until end 2023. They also have a pretty large shareholder who might be a saviour potentially if things require it. They can always pare down some less interesting parts of the library to manage liquidity issues if any.

sethatk

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #6382 on: February 23, 2021, 07:56:29 AM »
I like Wildbrain too, Old West's Q4 letter had a helpful write-up.

Wildbrain posted a strong Q2, but my main concern is the leverage ratio.  While it's improving (they plan to bring it down to the mid-4x level by end of their Fiscal 2022), it's still quite high.  Do you see this as a concern?

(And agree we should start a separate thread on this!)

I think management will execute. With the cheap money abound, I'm not overly concerned about the debt. 

CorpRaider

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #6383 on: February 23, 2021, 09:03:46 AM »
Interesting pitch on A Walkers pod.  I followed Iconix for a while.  I do like the content "studios/labels" (relative to their prices). 

SafetyinNumbers

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #6384 on: February 23, 2021, 11:58:48 AM »
Added a touch more ATTO.

A full position for me but I trade around the edges.

I can't see a specific reason for the sell off but it is up a lot this year and some fund might be looking to take profits.

They report next Wednesday night with the conference call on Thursday morning (Mar 4) at 10 am.

At the very least we should have analyst estimates increased post report as all of the analysts have been restricted because of a debt refinancing since they pre-reported better than expected revenues and EBITDA.

Consensus 2021 EBITDA is $186.5m and they reported an EBITDA range of $50-55m for Q4. That should lift consensus above $200m. At 5% cc revenue growth and 14% margins, 2021E EBITDA would be $217m. They pre-reported margins of 14-14.5% for Q420 so it doesn't seem like a big stretch to assume that for the full year. Each point of margin adds ~$15m to EBITDA.

At $22.50, the company is trading at 4.6x EV/EBITDA on current consensus 2021E EBITDA. If consensus jumps to $217, at 4.6x, the stock would trade at $30.50.

The beauty of leverage and only 16.3m shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis.

I am a valueHODLer here until the strategic sale of the company in 2022 or 2023. Peers trade 8-15x EBITDA. If a sale could be based on 2023E estimates, assuming the same sales growth and a lift of EBITDA margins to 14.5% or the half way point of guidance. We could have a selling price of $90+ based on the low end of the comp range at 8x.

Still a long way to go from here of course but I think it's important to understand the roadmap.

ValueArb

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #6385 on: February 23, 2021, 03:42:34 PM »
Covered a Tesla short.  I do not have diamond hands.

So soon? I can't sell, I bought my $200/$400 Puts around $825, and am barely showing a profit.
Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent

JRM

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #6386 on: February 24, 2021, 07:29:23 AM »
Altus Midstream (ALTS).  First ever dividend ex-date is Friday, $1.50 quarterly (>10% yield as a c-corp).

Brand new pipeline assets in the Permian.  May put together a write-up, but the thesis is pretty straightforward. 

Forgot to mention, most of the pipelines are part of JVs and partnership agreements, and Apache owns 79% of ALTM so I think there are possibilities for strategic transactions in the future.  Either that or Apache dumps its stake and crushes the share price.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2021, 07:41:53 AM by JRM »

Pistachio_Lawyer

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #6387 on: February 24, 2021, 07:59:13 AM »
Bought Facebook at 258.88 and Verizon at 57.09

Lets go team value

sethatk

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #6388 on: February 24, 2021, 08:14:14 AM »
Added to DFH

sarganaga

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #6389 on: February 24, 2021, 02:05:24 PM »
Altria (MO)