Author Topic: what are you selling today?  (Read 187510 times)

rb

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #450 on: May 22, 2020, 05:34:20 AM »
I sold out of AAPL.


Casey

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #451 on: May 22, 2020, 09:16:14 AM »
I sold out of AAPL.

Curious if you want to share any reasoning.

I have a bit long. Cranking out 30% app store fees, 80% of USA youths have an Apple phone, Trump has an apple phone, lowering costs on some models, Huwawei blocked for politics in USA, going towards services and other products like watch and health, reasonable capital allocation.
dbx, msft, fb, amzn

rb

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #452 on: May 22, 2020, 09:24:41 AM »
I sold out of AAPL.

Curious if you want to share any reasoning.

I have a bit long. Cranking out 30% app store fees, 80% of USA youths have an Apple phone, Trump has an apple phone, lowering costs on some models, Huwawei blocked for politics in USA, going towards services and other products like watch and health, reasonable capital allocation.
I have absolutely nothing against the business. I think it's a great company. It was valuation sell.

I picked up a lot of it a year or so ago when everyone was freaking out about iphone volumes and talking about what a piece of crap Apple was. But around $320 the value proposition is a lot different than around 160 which was my entry price. So I just rang the cash register.

valueinvestor

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #453 on: May 27, 2020, 02:29:11 AM »
EVBG, COUPA, AEO, PK, TDG, in favour for SHOP when it went down.

james22

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #454 on: May 27, 2020, 05:35:46 AM »
Shifted some of my Emerging Markets fund (VEMAX) to US Small Value (VSIAX).
BRK, BAM, MKL l SV, EM l Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac l Cash

valueinvestor

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #455 on: May 27, 2020, 07:18:45 PM »
Sold out of AEO, TDG fully and bought SHOP, SEA LTD.

clutch

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #456 on: June 03, 2020, 09:20:22 AM »
Sold my Corona-damaged basket - BUD, MLHR, BPY.UN, RL - for 20~30% gains.

Spekulatius

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #457 on: June 03, 2020, 03:52:27 PM »
Sold short a bit $RGA (Life reinsurer) at the open when reading about their stock offering at $81. I was surprised it opened as high as it did ($89) and then even briefly went higher.

I first thought it was a potential long until I read the 424B offering filing. It appears that they loose about $400-500M for every 100k death in the US or 1.4M worldwide, so it is very levered to excess death (which is basically the risk they insure).

I closed this out for a small gain later, but I really think this has a potential as a short as I think we could be a few hundred thousand dead in the US before this is over and potentially a million. In the latter case, RGA likely would be toast.

Anyone has a clue how to get statutory filings. Pre- Corona, they had ~$700M in excess equity and COVID probably took $400-500M of this, so I assume their actuaries got nervous and that’s why their raised capital.

It’s cheap and trades far below book, but every financial on its way to going broke looks cheap and below book. RGA suffers from a double whammy of excess death and low interest rates so it could be really in a bind right now.

I know it’s kind of Macabre to bet on a demise of such a company,  but hey what happens, happens whether we bet or not. If nothing else, it could be a way to insure against the tail risk of the virus getting worse again.  I own some so insurance positions like TRV, ORI and BRK that I wouldn’t mind protecting.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2020, 03:50:07 AM by Spekulatius »
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

thekiefs

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #458 on: June 03, 2020, 08:40:03 PM »
Sold most of my COVID trades: GOOG, WMB, SPY, V

Finally exited FCAU, RACE to build some cash




Cigarbutt

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #459 on: June 04, 2020, 06:04:16 AM »
Sold short a bit $RGA (Life reinsurer) at the open when reading about their stock offering at $81. I was surprised it opened as high as it did ($89) and then even briefly went higher.

I first thought it was a potential long until I read the 424B offering filing. It appears that they loose about $400-500M for every 100k death in the US or 1.4M worldwide, so it is very levered to excess death (which is basically the risk they insure).

I closed this out for a small gain later, but I really think this has a potential as a short as I think we could be a few hundred thousand dead in the US before this is over and potentially a million. In the latter case, RGA likely would be toast.

Anyone has a clue how to get statutory filings. Pre- Corona, they had ~$700M in excess equity and COVID probably took $400-500M of this, so I assume their actuaries got nervous and thatís why their raised capital.

Itís cheap and trades far below book, but every financial on its way to going broke looks cheap and below book. RGA suffers from a double whammy of excess death and low interest rates so it could be really in a bind right now.

I know itís kind of Macabre to bet on a demise of such a company,  but hey what happens, happens whether we bet or not. If nothing else, it could be a way to insure against the tail risk of the virus getting worse again.  I own some so insurance positions like TRV, ORI and BRK that I wouldnít mind protecting.
That's very interesting but i don't plan to spend more time on this (now).
Looking for statutory documents can be a frustrating experience. Sometimes it's useful to look at specific states (Missouri in this case?).
You may want to take a look at the following which is a solvency report from the "international" sub domiciled in Ireland. The report has a risk section (insurance risk, market risk and the new CV risk) with sensitivity scenarios that may be transposed to the whole company?
https://rgare.com/docs/default-source/regulatory-documents/sfcr-report-template-2019.pdf
They also seem to have significant and growing exposure to longevity risk which is related to the management of volatility of pension plans and that has the potential also to be very interesting. The risk that risks become more correlated may be underappreciated.
Please eventually provide longer term follow-up.