Author Topic: what are you selling today?  (Read 164679 times)

Cigarbutt

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #500 on: August 09, 2020, 07:58:52 AM »
I am tempted to short Eversource.
My town and neighboring towns has lost powers for a week now and people are so pissed with them.
The regulator is also pissed.
https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/top-state-leader-calls-for-resignation-of-eversource-ceo/2316001/
First and foremost: Good luck and i hope that 'energy' is restored rapidly. In my quarters, losing WiFi access for a few seconds has the potential to trigger an uproar and it's easy to think of the real consequences when the outage lasts more than a few hours.
This is interesting (utilities as investment targets, utilities risk management strategy for power outages, both as prevention and response and the models behind the thought process; one of my daughter's summer job is to help build a mathematical model that may be sold to the utility monopoly in my jurisdiction and that tries to assess the best strategy to deal with heavy rainfalls in relation to the distribution infrastructure).
Just skip below for a poorly substantiated comment about Eversource.
--o--
We (developed countries) take low outage rates for granted and the number of outages has been convincingly going up including (and especially?) in your great country. There is no need to believe that weather-related events are on the rise since even keeping that number constant, the growing and densifying distribution network will make sure this 'problem' is not going away. And of course, there's the elephant in the room that the American Society of Civil Engineers keeps on depicting (and quantifying): the ageing patchwork of the distribution infrastructure. The US is a large place and is submitted to an unusual array of severe meteorological phenomena, but evidence is building up that the exceptional energy setup has entered a phase of decrepitude.  Also, European countries (and my province) typically have a single regulatory body which is responsible for reliability of the entire nation’s power system which is a nagging feature but seems to be a net positive factor for 'reliability' at large. Anyways, 'public' investments will happen but i bet that private players like BRK will successfully resist the crowding out which may recede if budget constraints become fashionable again. Long term thinking may be required but tomorrow starts today in a way. It's interesting to recall that Eisenhower, during his presidency, was inspired to develop the interstate highway system as a result of an attempt (painful) to cross America by jeep decades before as an army man.
--o--
After spending just a few minutes on Eversource (market, network, policies and financials), it's possible that the stock price goes down from a momentum point of view especially if investigations reveal gross mismanagement but these episodes inevitably force politicians to 'strategically' respond in order to temper public outrage and people may realize that it can be hard to put a standard deviation on an Act of God. The fact that a smaller competitor looks good is a compounding factor though. Interestingly, the most effective short term restoration tool for the company may lie in its communications skills, a skill that is hard to assess prospectively. Typically, the long term value of utilities is rarely dented significantly by an isolated and disturbing power outage. Also, i wonder if it's a good idea to short a stock you're mad at..


Spekulatius

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #501 on: August 09, 2020, 09:53:18 AM »
I recall when I moved to the US in 1997, I made photos (and wasted film) of sagging power poles and haphazard strung electricity wires especially in San Francsico because I honestly have never seen such a mess, except on a trip to Cuba. I still should have pics somewhere.

My current nervy company is National Grid and when I moved to MA and rented an apparent back then, the power went out in March 2018 twice due to snow storms, the second time for almost a week. In March 2018 it was pretty cold  and having no power and heat isn’t fun at all.

When I bought my house here in The same area, a selling point for me is that the power connection is with an underground power wire coming from a main line.

Also and interesting fact is that a town next to me (Groton, MA) bought back their distribution network from national Grid a while ago and currently, their electricity rates are some of the lowest in MA. Also, the grid seems we’ll make tainted and never experienced the outages that Nation Grid experienced during the same 2018 Episode. in fact, realtors use this as a selling point for houses there.

In a world of low interest rates and apparent failure of good stewardship, I think it is an option for local communities to apply pressure to regulated utilities and buy back networks where intakes sense, imo.

One can call this socialism, but in my opinion, with “great power comes great responsibility” and when a monopoly doesn’t meet the needs of the communities it serves , than I think it should be fair to take it back for a reasonable compensation of course.

Now the Groton model may not work everywhere and there isn’t risk theta town mired in “power” politics will do even worse than a privately owned regulated utility.

FWIW, I have no opinion on Eversource or NGG as an investment and don’t recommend shorting something for emotional reasons as well.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2020, 02:17:26 PM by Spekulatius »
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sleepydragon

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #502 on: August 09, 2020, 10:29:03 AM »
I am tempted to short Eversource.
My town and neighboring towns has lost powers for a week now and people are so pissed with them.
The regulator is also pissed.

https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/top-state-leader-calls-for-resignation-of-eversource-ceo/2316001/


Spekulatius

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #503 on: August 11, 2020, 04:16:14 PM »
Sold my BRKB shares. My most Index like position and close enough to fair value to me.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

sleepydragon

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #504 on: August 11, 2020, 05:27:46 PM »
I am tempted to short Eversource.
My town and neighboring towns has lost powers for a week now and people are so pissed with them.
The regulator is also pissed.

https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/top-state-leader-calls-for-resignation-of-eversource-ceo/2316001/

https://www.zawya.com/mena/en/economy/story/Hurricane_Isaias_may_claim_at_least_one_CEO_scalp-TR20200810nL1N2FC0HXX1/

“Hurricane Isaias may claim at least one chief executive’s scalp. Connecticut legislators want the head of James Judge, the CEO of $30 billion New England utility Eversource Energy, on a pike as blackouts linger in the Nutmeg State. “

Stock is down 2% today.

I am not emotional about this stock. I just think investors are not realizing how bad the situation is for this company.



Spekulatius

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #505 on: August 11, 2020, 07:13:07 PM »
I am tempted to short Eversource.
My town and neighboring towns has lost powers for a week now and people are so pissed with them.
The regulator is also pissed.

https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/top-state-leader-calls-for-resignation-of-eversource-ceo/2316001/

https://www.zawya.com/mena/en/economy/story/Hurricane_Isaias_may_claim_at_least_one_CEO_scalp-TR20200810nL1N2FC0HXX1/

“Hurricane Isaias may claim at least one chief executive’s scalp. Connecticut legislators want the head of James Judge, the CEO of $30 billion New England utility Eversource Energy, on a pike as blackouts linger in the Nutmeg State. “

Stock is down 2% today.

I am not emotional about this stock. I just think investors are not realizing how bad the situation is for this company.

ED, PEG and NGG (all of them are East coast utes) are all down today in the same 2% ballpark. Likely cause is rising treasury yields, imo.

May the power be with you soon.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

sleepydragon

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #506 on: August 11, 2020, 07:55:30 PM »
I am tempted to short Eversource.
My town and neighboring towns has lost powers for a week now and people are so pissed with them.
The regulator is also pissed.

https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/top-state-leader-calls-for-resignation-of-eversource-ceo/2316001/

https://www.zawya.com/mena/en/economy/story/Hurricane_Isaias_may_claim_at_least_one_CEO_scalp-TR20200810nL1N2FC0HXX1/

“Hurricane Isaias may claim at least one chief executive’s scalp. Connecticut legislators want the head of James Judge, the CEO of $30 billion New England utility Eversource Energy, on a pike as blackouts linger in the Nutmeg State. “

Stock is down 2% today.

I am not emotional about this stock. I just think investors are not realizing how bad the situation is for this company.

ED, PEG and NGG (all of them are East coast utes) are all down today in the same 2% ballpark. Likely cause is rising treasury yields, imo.

May the power be with you soon.

Because all of them are being blamed for the storms. For years they have been reducing labors and saved on maintenance, and shareholders benefited. Now politicians may force them to spend more money, including adding new headcounts, to prepare for future outages.


fareastwarriors

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #507 on: August 11, 2020, 09:03:52 PM »
I am tempted to short Eversource.
My town and neighboring towns has lost powers for a week now and people are so pissed with them.
The regulator is also pissed.

https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/top-state-leader-calls-for-resignation-of-eversource-ceo/2316001/

https://www.zawya.com/mena/en/economy/story/Hurricane_Isaias_may_claim_at_least_one_CEO_scalp-TR20200810nL1N2FC0HXX1/

“Hurricane Isaias may claim at least one chief executive’s scalp. Connecticut legislators want the head of James Judge, the CEO of $30 billion New England utility Eversource Energy, on a pike as blackouts linger in the Nutmeg State. “

Stock is down 2% today.

I am not emotional about this stock. I just think investors are not realizing how bad the situation is for this company.

ED, PEG and NGG (all of them are East coast utes) are all down today in the same 2% ballpark. Likely cause is rising treasury yields, imo.

May the power be with you soon.

Because all of them are being blamed for the storms. For years they have been reducing labors and saved on maintenance, and shareholders benefited. Now politicians may force them to spend more money, including adding new headcounts, to prepare for future outages.

Prioritizing customers over shareholders?

Blasphemy!

Cigarbutt

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #508 on: August 12, 2020, 03:30:41 AM »
...vs shorting Eversource...
Because all of them are being blamed for the storms. For years they have been reducing labors and saved on maintenance, and shareholders benefited. Now politicians may force them to spend more money, including adding new headcounts, to prepare for future outages.
So, apart from the noise, you have to establish scenarios where the intrinsic value or perception of intrinsic value is or will be significantly impaired.

When looking back at the New York outage from the summer 2019 (there was a small thread on this) and when comparing to the longer term evolution of Con Edison's share price, it is not at all obvious how one could have benefitted from a short sale then (the same CEO is still there).

Investor-owned utility conversion to another model could make sense, under certain circumstances, but this seems unlikely for Eversource. If there was one poor corporate 'citizen' example, it was PG&E (2 threads on this) and it even went through bankruptcy and came out relatively intact.

Please show what is different in this case.

Castanza

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #509 on: August 12, 2020, 10:15:05 AM »
WFC - Broke even on my position. Plenty of other good banks out there at good prices. I think the thesis should be kept relatively simple. Too many "if they dos" for my liking. Couple that with the current environment and I'd rather try to find a better place for my money. I do believe there will be plenty of opportunities to re-enter a position within the next year should I change my mind.
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