Corner of Berkshire & Fairfax Message Board
General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: muscleman on October 08, 2013, 08:16:48 PM
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While I think the thread below is probably helpful to members, I think maybe a thread called "what are you selling today?" will also be helpful. This is not for selling short. Just selling.
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/what-are-you-buying-today/
There could be a few reasons for selling:
1. You just found a better opportunity. Please tell us why.
2. You made an investment mistake. Please tell us the story. What was your original thesis and what is your current expectation.
3. You made a handsome profit on an investment, and you are exiting because it has reached your price target. Congrats on that! It will be great if you could share with us some stories about this investment. Now in hindsight, do you think this is pure luck, or it is your hard working being paid off, and why?
4. Exiting a position due to a corporate event and/or loss of faith in management or the major shareholders.
:)
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haven't sold anything for a while, looking to deploy the 40% or so in cash that i have burning in my pocket.
the tax man clouded my judgement and prevent me from selling more stock recently (the tax bill is getting too high)
still looking for the opportunity to deploy more cash
EDIT: anyone with a HIGH conviction opportunity?
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muscleman,
Allow me to add a 4th reason by way of recent experience - exiting a position due to a corporate event and/or loss of faith in management or the major shareholders.
I bought preferred shares in Oi via the ADR (OIBR) in August thanks to Packer's sage advice and my own research leading me to believe that Zeinal Bava, the CEO, was indeed an excellent manager and that the company had excellent growth prospects. The stock proceeded to go up around 50% from my entry point in about a month, declared a reduced but still handsome dividend and I was happy to hold the investment for a few years to allow it to realize its full value
Last week they announced they are doing a rights ofering which is 125% of the current MV of their equity PLUS they are combining with their parent Portugal Telecom by buying PT's assets for a lot more than book value and at a very bad EUR/BRL exchange rate. This all resulted in me being diluted around 50% of an FCF basis, but as I wrote at the time on the Oi thread, I decided to exit because do not want to partner with those out to fleece me.
I was ready to sell once trading opened thinking that the shares must trade down BUT to my surprise the pre-market was positive, so I followed the shares upward through the day and sold towards the end of the day close to the daily high. After the unexplained euphoria of that day's trading the market finally realized how bad the deal was for Oi shareholders and the shares lost 30% in a few days.
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muscleman,
Allow me to add a 4th reason by way of recent experience - exiting a position due to a corporate event and/or loss of faith in management or the major shareholders.
I bought preferred shares in Oi via the ADR (OIBR) in August thanks to Packer's sage advice and my own research leading me to believe that Zeinal Bava, the CEO, was indeed an excellent manager and that the company had excellent growth prospects. The stock proceeded to go up around 50% from my entry point in about a month, declared a reduced but still handsome dividend and I was happy to hold the investment for a few years to allow it to realize its full value
Last week they announced they are doing a rights ofering which is 125% of the current MV of their equity PLUS they are combining with their parent Portugal Telecom by buying PT's assets for a lot more than book value and at a very bad EUR/BRL exchange rate. This all resulted in me being diluted around 50% of an FCF basis, but as I wrote at the time on the Oi thread, I decided to exit because do not want to partner with those out to fleece me.
I was ready to sell once trading opened thinking that the shares must trade down BUT to my surprise the pre-market was positive, so I followed the shares upward through the day and sold towards the end of the day close to the daily high. After the unexplained euphoria of that day's trading the market finally realized how bad the deal was for Oi shareholders and the shares lost 30% in a few days.
Congrats! You still made a handsome profit on that!
I added that as the 4th reason, but I think it is similar to No.2.
As the price drop more, maybe it will be a good time to reenter?
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Nothing to sell, my portfolio has gotten killed last 3 weeks.
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I sold all my SHLD holding today.
I think Eric is right. Recently all retailers are reporting bad numbers, and SHLD is still losing money. So taking a potential double as the upside does not sound as attractive given the risks.
The other reason is that as we approach the year end tax loss sale season, there could be more interesting opportunities and safer.
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Yup, sold 80% of my SHLD last week with this ridiculous gov actions looming. Too much sitting on the table.
Sold a tech - NOW on valuation. a few other things to raise cash. Hope to get another shot with SHLD.
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I haven't bought or sold anything recently. There are a lot of companies I'd love to own, but not at the prices they are trading at. Ignoring my small positions my portfolio is now (in order) BAC(LEAPS & warrants), FRFHF, AIG-WT, SD(common & LEAPS), HOTR, AAPL
There is nothing I want to sell right now.
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Not doing anything. My only position is BP. Other than that I have tons of cash.
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muscleman,
Allow me to add a 4th reason by way of recent experience - exiting a position due to a corporate event and/or loss of faith in management or the major shareholders.
I bought preferred shares in Oi via the ADR (OIBR) in August thanks to Packer's sage advice and my own research leading me to believe that Zeinal Bava, the CEO, was indeed an excellent manager and that the company had excellent growth prospects. The stock proceeded to go up around 50% from my entry point in about a month, declared a reduced but still handsome dividend and I was happy to hold the investment for a few years to allow it to realize its full value
Last week they announced they are doing a rights ofering which is 125% of the current MV of their equity PLUS they are combining with their parent Portugal Telecom by buying PT's assets for a lot more than book value and at a very bad EUR/BRL exchange rate. This all resulted in me being diluted around 50% of an FCF basis, but as I wrote at the time on the Oi thread, I decided to exit because do not want to partner with those out to fleece me.
I was ready to sell once trading opened thinking that the shares must trade down BUT to my surprise the pre-market was positive, so I followed the shares upward through the day and sold towards the end of the day close to the daily high. After the unexplained euphoria of that day's trading the market finally realized how bad the deal was for Oi shareholders and the shares lost 30% in a few days.
Congrats! You still made a handsome profit on that!
I added that as the 4th reason, but I think it is similar to No.2.
As the price drop more, maybe it will be a good time to reenter?
Thanks muscleman :)
I have no complaints about the profit! As for Oi, do look at the thread but after a good deal of analysis I think that unless the stock completely tanks (i.e. under a dollar when currently at around $1.70), there is not enough upside in it
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Sold some BAM.A and BEP.UN
Still like BAM.
Reason: BAM is a big part of the portfolio for me and with the debt ceiling debate not going away, I thought some of the $$$ should sit on the sidelines to see how it all shakes out. May sell more on good days leading up to the 17th. Upside is limited and downside is meaningful until we get resolution on US government and debt ceiling questions.
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Recently sold half of my position in AAON a HVAC manufacturer that does a lot of custom systems. I just think it's over priced. It's great company Owner Operator, growing market share, strong margins etc.. I put that money into LMCA Which has bumped up nicely since then.
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Not doing anything. My only position is BP. Other than that I have tons of cash.
Why only BP?
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I recently sold 50% of my position in SHLD for $64.50. My justification is in the SHLD thread...
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Yesterday I sold a little over half my SD LEAPS for basically taking my initial investment off the table and let most of the gains run. If anyone cares, I will likely wait to see if we get a big sell-off on the political stuff and look for the 2015 LEAPS when they start trading.
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Not doing anything. My only position is BP. Other than that I have tons of cash.
Why only BP?
Seems cheap and disliked. I recently bought then quickly sold both MBI and BBRY. I didn't trust my initial analysis. I'm looking for some fear elsewhere, but haven't seen much that is compelling. My positions can change quickly.
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Sales 2013
MBI position earlier this yr
40% of BAC WTA during the summer
Buys 2013
increasing my SHLD position summer)
27% cash
18.5% BYDDY
17% SHLD
14.5% BAC WTA
14% AIG WT
9% FFH
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Sold some RGR today. I may load it into some SWHC.
Unwound some BAC 2015 calls today into this rally and went into the common.
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After reducing my leverage over the last days, i sold off the last bit of my AAPL position today. It was a trading position, my price target was 580. It has not reached it but it was close enough to close the position. It was never a high conviction idea for me, so taking profits and putting it to work somewhere else with a better upside potential looks like a good idea to me. Will buy more TI/ARCP over the next days.
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I raised cash levels from 17% to 58% today:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rN6avab0fIY
I guess you could say I was selling almost everything today.
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Just sold some XIV today. Up ~50% in the two months that I have held it. Yes I am bragging about my luck. ;D
Will reload when the VIX goes above 20 again.
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Just sold some XIV today. Up ~50% in the two months that I have held it. Yes I am bragging about my luck. ;D
Will reload when the VIX goes above 20 again.
Short VXX and/or Long XIV (for a small portion of the portfolio though) has been a consistent winner the past few years. I don't think it is entirely luck, the construction of these products has something to do with it. As long as you can stomach the volatility of these volatility products, I think the shape of the VIX curve kind of guarantees some of this return. I hope they don't pull these products from the market soon....
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Just sold some XIV today. Up ~50% in the two months that I have held it. Yes I am bragging about my luck. ;D
Will reload when the VIX goes above 20 again.
Short VXX and/or Long XIV (for a small portion of the portfolio though) has been a consistent winner the past few years. I don't think it is entirely luck, the construction of these products has something to do with it. As long as you can stomach the volatility of these volatility products, I think the shape of the VIX curve kind of guarantees some of this return. I hope they don't pull these products from the market soon....
I am short VXX/UVXY as well. The near-term of the VIX curve in contango virtually guarantees the decay. I like to spice it up with levered UVXY to let the compounding effect of volatility due to leverage to work in my favor.
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I'm also in XIV and SVXY (which is nice because it has options and it's fun to sell covered calls when the VIX gets low).
It's worthwhile noting that XIV will at some point go to zero in a single day and UVXY at some point will probably go up ten times in a short period of time. So any investment strategy that involves those ETFs should be designed to be resilient to those sorts of events.
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I'm also in XIV and SVXY (which is nice because it has options and it's fun to sell covered calls when the VIX gets low).
It's worthwhile noting that XIV will at some point go to zero in a single day and UVXY at some point will probably go up ten times in a short period of time. So any investment strategy that involves those ETFs should be designed to be resilient to those sorts of events.
Yes, I have also wondered what happens to XIV if VIX jumps 100% in a single day (not inconceivable now given VIX is in the 12-14 range). These products are based on VIX futures. Would the exchange allow a +100% move on the futures in a single day? Aren't there margin rules and/or disruption rules designed to limit the movement in a single session?
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Yes, I have also wondered what happens to XIV if VIX jumps 100% in a single day (not inconceivable now given VIX is in the 12-14 range). These products are based on VIX futures. Would the exchange allow a +100% move on the futures in a single day? Aren't there margin rules and/or disruption rules designed to limit the movement in a single session?
If XIV drops 80% in a single day, it will automatically be liquidated. This is the scenario I mean when I say it'll eventually going to 0. (I'm curious what happens if it gaps to over a 100% loss. I guess the fund company gets burned in that case.)
I'm not sure if there are restrictions on the VIX futures movement. I'd guess not.
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Sold BAC calls today. Still holding the common shares.
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The fun is not over with BAC but good luck!
Sold BAC calls today. Still holding the common shares.
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The fun is not over with BAC but good luck!
Sold BAC calls today. Still holding the common shares.
It is still my largest holding! I'm enjoying the ride and will continue to do so!
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Second Cup (SCU)
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Have been selling CVX and will sell more to gradually close my position.
Be in a relationship with CVX for 10yrs, time for us to part ways.
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Sold 40% of my shorter term OTM WDAY options for a 4-bagger. Holding the rest, aiming for 10x. Hit or miss, I walk away with a good gain.
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How large do you make these option positions? And do you look at them in terms of notional exposure or net costs?
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Generally I do not. Shorter term options I keep very small percentage of total portfolio. Those wday options were 1.3% of my total portfolio and are pure speculation on short term movements. More than large enough if they really get going.
Longer term put options like CRM I buy much more agressively, also because my conviction is a lot higher. I do sell all the way down however. I've found timing way to hard, especially with shorter term options where you can have fluctuations of 100-300%/day.
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Have been selling CVX and will sell more to gradually close my position.
Be in a relationship with CVX for 10yrs, time for us to part ways.
Why?
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Have been selling CVX and will sell more to gradually close my position.
Be in a relationship with CVX for 10yrs, time for us to part ways.
Why?
Well I don't follow it as much as I use to. But the bottom line is:
- profits are at record highs because of $90 / barrel oil, when I first bought it oil was at $30 / barrel
- if oil prices drop CVX profits will plummet
- I look back at the last 10yrs, thank god I didn't own BP, it wasn't skill that led me to choose CVX and avoid the offshore oil spill
- CVX is getting a lot of good press lately about how its return on assets are excellent and how well it is managed
- oil is going to be more and more capital intensive and we go to more difficult places to extract it
- CVX is large cap, and I am becoming a hard core small cap investor
- I expect CVX to perform roughly in line with the market, and I only invest now expecting to beat the market
So basically, it is good time to sell off the top.....
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Selling Nothing.
I think there are a ridiculous amount of companies trading at ridiculously high prices. But the selling is across the board so the few baraings that previously existed are even more of a bargain. FIAT and Corning have held up well, at least for now.
I have a lot of cash and I'm seeing more opportunities emerging. I'm interested in buying soon, Specifically GM and Toyota. I've been watching Korean preferred stocks like Hyundai and Samsung but they are actually a bit higher in price, but still ridiculously cheap. If we have another few days in the red I'll likely make a few buys.
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Sold more of my OTM WDAY puts today. I bought some more earlier last week but was too soon. Further orders didn't fill. :( Still holding some. Netsuite earnings on monday...
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Sold entire position in MSFT.
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Sold some WDAY puts for a near 10-bagger. Still hating that I didn't get those other puts last week. Bought some short term Linkedin puts around opening with fraction of profits.
Glad someone finally stepped on the sell button on CRM. N earnings tonight could move it another way quickly however.
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The DNOW spinoff of NOV. If the $22 valuation of Morningstar is anything near correct it's way overvalued (and I have no time to do deep analysis now and it's a small position).
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I shorted NFLX today.
Thanks,
Lance
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I shorted NFLX today.
Thanks,
Lance
Tilson's T2 Partners had a relatively new presentation on the tactical aspects of shorting. Try to google it. I wished I knew these years ago.
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I wrote puts on CTCM - CTC Media, Inc. today.
Thanks,
Lance
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The remainder of my Intel position
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I wrote puts on CTCM - CTC Media, Inc. today.
Thanks,
Lance
Why sell puts? why not own it outright. Its still pretty cheap.
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Hi rpadebet - Agree that it's pretty cheap, but I enter most of my positions via puts. Also, I sell puts monthly on stocks that I feel are undervalued, not always with the hope that they are assigned. If they're assigned I sell calls on them until they're called away.
Thanks
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To the Board:
Please post your buys and sells in a more timely manner. It would appear that not everything is being reported and what is being reported is only after some delay. We need to ensure that accuracy is maintained.
Thank you for your cooperation in this very important matter.
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Sold half of my remaining Wells Fargo today :-\
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It's a good point Kraven.
I am going to use that as an opportunity to put in a pre-emptive sell order on the SPY ETF. I am 100% short the index when the transaction occurs.
NOTE: As this is a pre-emptive order, the transaction is subject to certain conditions being met. Specifically the SPY must decrease in value by more than 1% by tomorrow's close. Failing that condition I revoke my pre-emptive order.
:P
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Sold half of my remaining Wells Fargo today :-\
I still think Wells is one of the cheaper stocks available today...
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Sold half of my remaining Wells Fargo today :-\
I still think Wells is one of the cheaper stocks available today...
It wasn't an easy decision, but we're up to 8x pre-tax pre-provision profit now. I'm trying to buy a small community bank at less than 5x in its stead.
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Hi rpadebet - Agree that it's pretty cheap, but I enter most of my positions via puts. Also, I sell puts monthly on stocks that I feel are undervalued, not always with the hope that they are assigned. If they're assigned I sell calls on them until they're called away.
Thanks
Quick glance, less than 60 seconds, CTCM looks interesting.
Kraven, So that I do my part to be timely, if I have time this evening to do more research and I like CTCM, I will write some 10-strike puts tomorrow! So you can front run me if you like.
Lance, We have similar, maybe identical, strategies! Thanks for bringing CTCM to my attention.
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i sold my pharmstandard Holding today. Holding it for two months. 37% yield.
now buying more hyundai preffered and Samsung preffered.
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i sold my pharmstandard Holding today. Holding it for two months. 37% yield.
now buying more hyundai preffered and Samsung preffered.
Phil - if you don't mind my asking - what broker do you use to buy the Korean stocks given the difficulty for retail investors to get them?
And are there special restrictions in buying them?
thanks
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i sold my pharmstandard Holding today. Holding it for two months. 37% yield.
now buying more hyundai preffered and Samsung preffered.
Phil - if you don't mind my asking - what broker do you use to buy the Korean stocks given the difficulty for retail investors to get them?
And are there special restrictions in buying them?
thanks
cubsfan iam buying on german ING. i can only buy Samsung preffered and hyundai preffered. These are the only two i can buy. there are no restrictions because they are gdr Shares. they are Imitate a half of a preffered share.
cheers :)
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Thanks Phil - should have figured it would be easier in Europe than the US!
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Thanks Phil - should have figured it would be easier in Europe than the US!
IB allowed me to buy the hyundai prefs (off the london exchange, but traded in USD). There's a thread on it in the investment section.
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It's a good point Kraven.
I am going to use that as an opportunity to put in a pre-emptive sell order on the SPY ETF. I am 100% short the index when the transaction occurs.
NOTE: As this is a pre-emptive order, the transaction is subject to certain conditions being met. Specifically the SPY must decrease in value by more than 1% by tomorrow's close. Failing that condition I revoke my pre-emptive order.
:P
Looks like today is your day! I am a shameless cloner, copied you and shorted the day highs :D.
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I shorted TSLA at $222 today.
Thanks,
Lance
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The remainder of my Intel position
Wow that was great timing. Selling my AZN in January was worse though ::)
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I wrote puts on COH.
Thanks,
Lance
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I shorted some Chipotle yesterday
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I shorted LNKD today.
Thanks,
Lance
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I sold my SSE shares. I received them from CHK spin off and didn't like the valuation and leverage.
Note that this thread is mainly for closing long position. Either cutting losses and explaining what is the lesson or taking a profit.
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Closed my OIBR long.
Lesson learned - when a company's leverage after issuing equity is still large, the chances of a second dilution must be taken into account when buying, if at all...
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I sold my SSE shares. I received them from CHK spin off and didn't like the valuation and leverage.
Note that this thread is mainly for closing long position. Either cutting losses and explaining what is the lesson or taking a profit.
muscleman, got it. Is there a thread for listing shorts?
Thanks,
Lance
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I sold my SSE shares. I received them from CHK spin off and didn't like the valuation and leverage.
Note that this thread is mainly for closing long position. Either cutting losses and explaining what is the lesson or taking a profit.
muscleman, got it. Is there a thread for listing shorts?
Thanks,
Lance
There's not. You are welcome to list shorts here, but since these shorts are not discussed in the investment ideas section, it will be best if you could give a brief outline of why you took the short at this point..
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I have taken a short position in Save the World (ticker: ZERO, extremely ironic). Even if you won't join the bandwagon, the company's 10ks are a fun read. This company has been a serial share issuance machine with the result that the company's market cap has ballooned to almost $150mln. The company has pulled a new rabbit out of its head, everytime the market was willing to give up on the company. Currently, the company tries to tell its AOT Technology as a groundbreaking technology, but I am fairly certain that TransCanada that currently has a temporary trial lease won't renew the contract, nor that a lot of other oil companies will follow. The current market cap, assuming no further dilution, assumes a sustainable earnings stream of $10mln, which will never materialize. I think that the end of Transcanada's lease could be the catalyst, combined with the lack of further partnerships, that could help the stock to go to zero eventually.
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Lightened up again on Western Digital (WDC). Down to just a few hundred shares now. Was the second largest holding for me, but that's harder to justify at $97. Cash position up to 17%
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Mostly ETFs and funds (dividend funds and etfs, infrastructure ETFs, etc.), but also a wide range of speculative and investment grade positions. Keeping companies like BRK, FFH, MKL, GLRE, OCX, KSU, COS, FMNA, FRMO but have been selling a wide range of other positions.
So basically, I've been raising cash across the board - AGAIN. Last year I apparently erred as, for well over a year now, I've felt the market was overvalued and at risk of a substantial decline, so by mid-May 2013 I had substantially raised my cash levels which was fortunate timing in the very short-term but the market decline was very minor and I then missed the fall rally. >:( Hating holding cash and knowing I can't really time the market, :) I couldn't stand it any longer and bought back into the market late in the year and into the first half of 2014. I still feel that the market is highly vulnerable and am basically trying to time a 5-7 year business cycle market top. That said, I've been returning to much more comfortable cash levels by taking modest profits across the board.
Note: In the past held decade/two decade long positions and only went largely to cash in 2008. In 2009 I jumped back into the market big time. Then took profits until the crisis in the fall of 2011 and again jumped back in in the downgrade crisis. So I don't think I'm so much as a market timer as an opportunist in these volatile times. I think the 2008/2009 crash was pretty much a once in a lifetime opportunity and don't expect a reoccurrence. Right now with many somewhat reliable market ratios at record highs (Hussman goes on ad nauseam about them), many guru investors now raising cash, Buffett not buying much if anything, and screens like AAII's Shadow Market portfolio finding zero small caps passing its criteria (beyond its current holdings), indicate to me that market risk is higher than normal if not unusually high, and so I'm selling market/index investments and a few others to boot. Rule number one - don't lose money. ...And this market has been driven so much by intervention and subsidization and not free market fundamentals that I feel uncomfortable about prospective returns at these levels (in North America).
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sold CNQ bought at 27 and sold at 45.77 a nice gain for the family portfolio. But taking some profits :D
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I sold a bit more of my Ceapro (CZO). I've owned it and accumulated it on and off over more than a decade and tt's finally doing fairly well but I'm paring back everything I own except BRK, FFH and a few "keepers" to raise my cash levels. (Market timing.)
I have been selling off a number of index ETFs over the past few weeks too (some of which I just picked up a few months back).
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Short GPRO
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Short GPRO
What kind of borrow rates are you getting?
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Sold KMI today. Makes no sense to hold if i can`t fully decide if its cheap or expensive here and i am not comfortable with my valuation on the dividend yield. I want to build a clean value portfolio at the end of october, and this has probably no place in it with its massive market cap.
Also trimmed some of my put positions.
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BRKB
Expect 12% ROE long-term and it is near fair value. There are a lot of potential investments forming so I wanted more cash. My portfolio is now 25% cash, 35% micro-caps (because I think they are uncorrelated to market - my version of workout given portfolio size), 40% long-term holdings/forever stocks.
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BRKB
My portfolio is now 25% cash, 35% micro-caps (because I think they are uncorrelated to market - my version of workout given portfolio size), 40% long-term holdings/forever stocks.
As any long-time practioner in the micro-cap space would probably have told you, these stocks are not uncorrelated to market, but they are just slow to react to broader market movements, both on the upside and on the downside. However, when they do react, they react hard and one will likely suffer tremendous mark-to-market losses (i.e. in a market panic). Therefore, I wouldn't necessarily treat these as workouts, unless there are clear catalysts to unlock value in a imaginable time frame.
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BRKB
My portfolio is now 25% cash, 35% micro-caps (because I think they are uncorrelated to market - my version of workout given portfolio size), 40% long-term holdings/forever stocks.
As any long-time practioner in the micro-cap space would probably have told you, these stocks are not uncorrelated to market, but they are just slow to react to broader market movements, both on the upside and on the downside. However, when they do react, they react hard and one will likely suffer tremendous mark-to-market losses (i.e. in a market panic). Therefore, I wouldn't necessarily treat these as workouts, unless there are clear catalysts to unlock value in a imaginable time frame.
Thanks for the comment and I would generally agree with you, micro-caps generally are tied to the market but with lower volume/higher volatility. My reason for calling them workouts (I have another small cap in the forever section) is because my investment thesis is not tied to a change in price multiple since volume is so low. My bet is on the business and that the turnaround will continue, thus the return will come from an increase in intrinsic value and future earnings power.
Looking back on it, 'Workout' probably isn't the correct term to use, but I do see my ownership in this company as more of a private equity-type investment where I do not expect to be able to flip it at higher multiples nor receive dividends for a few years while I wait for the business to progress.
Looking at the past price history for the issue, I have a reasonable belief that the price is decoupled from the market as a whole and will generally reflect the current and future business prospects.
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Sold all puts today. I noticed that i got back to my old behaviour instead of following the plan to just be protected from june->october. It was really hard to do this and i struggled with this decision for one or two weeks now. Whats a bit silly is that i could have liquidated the positions on the start of november with a gain but because i waited so long it came out with a loss. My strategy was to sell half of the put positions when they doubled and that worked very well.
The last 6 weeks were like a complete rollercoaster for me from feeling like genius in the middle of october (outperformance against the S&P was 15% at that point) to feeling like a fool now (-7% against the S&P ). I think i was just fucking greedy in october and that has cost me money and sleep.
Writing this helped me feel a little better so thanks for reading. :)
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Old behavior?
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Old behavior?
Too much wave counting, technical analysis and being a perma bear. Especially the last is a handicap that i can`t get rid of so easily.
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Too much wave counting, technical analysis and being a perma bear. Especially the last is a handicap that i can`t get rid of so easily.
I haven't succeeded in reaching this level of zen detachment yet, but have you tried not looking at the market as much? Or at least, cutting out almost all financial news.
Guy Spier has some interesting ideas on this (shutting down his bloomberg terminal and keeping it in a different room, only looking at prices when the market is closed, only looking once a week or whatever, etc)? Maybe this can help with all those problems, even without going as far as someone like Spier.
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KCLI, ITIC, Fujimak (TSE:5965)
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MBI
Swapped it for JPM warrants
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KCLI, ITIC, Fujimak (TSE:5965)
What made you sell Fujimak?
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Sold all puts today. I noticed that i got back to my old behaviour instead of following the plan to just be protected from june->october. It was really hard to do this and i struggled with this decision for one or two weeks now. Whats a bit silly is that i could have liquidated the positions on the start of november with a gain but because i waited so long it came out with a loss. My strategy was to sell half of the put positions when they doubled and that worked very well.
The last 6 weeks were like a complete rollercoaster for me from feeling like genius in the middle of october (outperformance against the S&P was 15% at that point) to feeling like a fool now (-7% against the S&P ). I think i was just fucking greedy in october and that has cost me money and sleep.
Writing this helped me feel a little better so thanks for reading. :)
My experience with buying puts has been pretty poor. I have only ever used them to hedge, not to deliberately short anything. Usually what happens is the market or stock goes up a little after a put purchase. A few weeks lapses, the market tanks, and the puts dont even get back to the level I paid for them.
It is said that 70% of options expire worthless. I am *guessing* that puts probably expire worthless in 90-95% of cases. I have tried every permutation of buying puts and have found this to nearly always be the case.
So, I find I am better at disciplining myself to move to cash, rather than buy puts. The problem here is the tax man. One day I need to sit down and do a tax versus losses on puts comparison. But, I am pretty sure that my losses from puts will exceed the taxes on selling gains by a long shot.
The obvious answer to puts that nearly always expire is to sell puts, of course. This needs to be done with a very careful eye. I have goofed this side up badly at extremely bad times, or with really bad stock choices (re: RIMM). I may have got the hang of it now with much smaller positions and more careful choices.
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Trimmed my long positions in KMI by selling all of my 2016 $30 strike calls. Keeping the 2017 warrants.
Still long-term bullish on KMI, but wanted to take some profits amid the market making new highs.
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LMCK
Swapped into LMCA
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KCLI, ITIC, Fujimak (TSE:5965)
What made you sell Fujimak?
The primary reason is for a tax loss. I actually think I almost broken even in yen, but the yen has depreciated from 95 per USD to 116 today so I am down 20% or so. I used a bit of the proceeds to buy Riken Keiki (7734). But in 2weeks it will be 30 days since I sold so I can buy back in. I just might. Mind you this is after they revised their loss estimate from -39yen to -16yen.
What do you think about Fujimak?
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KCLI, ITIC, Fujimak (TSE:5965)
What made you sell Fujimak?
The primary reason is for a tax loss. I actually think I almost broken even in yen, but the yen has depreciated from 95 per USD to 116 today so I am down 20% or so. I used a bit of the proceeds to buy Riken Keiki (7734). But in 2weeks it will be 30 days since I sold so I can buy back in. I just might. Mind you this is after they revised their loss estimate from -39yen to -16yen.
What do you think about Fujimak?
As far as I can see it is still very cheap so I was surprised about you selling. I figured you had some new insights and was wondering what I had missed. I live in a country where we have a net worth tax as opposed to a capital gains tax so I always forget to consider the tax angle.
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As I posted in the 2014 results thread the past three years have been humbling to me to say the least. Since that post I started to close out positions of my weird investments:
I closed out my position in REPR before their earnings were released last night for a nice gain. Sales growth was very healthy but the prior 2 quarters expenses had grown as fast/faster and therefore there was no leverage showing up in the business. In December their prereleased strong sales growth for the current Q but nothing on the expense side which has caused a run up before earnings. The stock is down 16% today on high volume for it as people are coming to the same conclusion as I did back in December when I was not confident that it would translate. Its now trading at 18x earning and probably will be over 20x after the 4th quarter. Mgmt doesn't seem like they want to sell out which is what the end game should be as the sales growth should be enticing to somebody in the space as they should be able to cut SG&A drastically.
Since my first post here I've also closed out my positions in ABTL, KIQ and GLDD and 50% of my Lands End (LE). To be honest I interviewed with Lands End corporate right before their spinoff from Sears and while I declined the job I saw from the employees the optimism in charting their own way and could hear the problems of being under Sears meant to them.
Increasing my cash positions will hopefully make me think clearer and eliminate the bias I have in anchoring. Other positions I have in OESX and GLGI and a few others I continue to hold through the next earnings call. Those results will help me.
To be honest - I'm pretty much done in the microcap space.
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Maybe foolishly sold out of my EUROB for a quick 45%+ gain at the end of last week. My very large holding in Intralot made me nervous about losing gains in either name.
Also sold a part of my NTLS holding last week after buying a lot more in the $4.4 range recently. Still hold a good position.
Lesson: Patience is improving but I really have to learn to let winners run. Should have learned this by now!
Also starting to run out of ideas, especially in the US. Seeing very little that I could invest 20%+ of my portfolio in and that offers 100%+ potential without too much risk. :(
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Maybe foolishly sold out of my EUROB for a quick 45%+ gain at the end of last week. My very large holding in Intralot made me nervous about losing gains in either name.
Also sold a part of my NTLS holding last week after buying a lot more in the $4.4 range recently. Still hold a good position.
Lesson: Patience is improving but I really have to learn to let winners run. Should have learned this by now!
Also starting to run out of ideas, especially in the US. Seeing very little that I could invest 20%+ of my portfolio in and that offers 100%+ potential without too much risk. :(
Have you looked at Bank of Cyprus? This is similar to Eurobank except that this should be safer. Wilbur Ross owns 19% of this company.
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/bocr-at-bank-of-cyprus/
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Bought Outerwall last week and SMA Solar today.
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Also starting to run out of ideas, especially in the US. Seeing very little that I could invest 20%+ of my portfolio in and that offers 100%+ potential without too much risk. :(
After selling NTLS I'm "stuck" with 33% cash. Don't feel like buying large caps with maybe 50% upside or compounders that are decently priced either. This too requires patience I guess.
Am I alone in having this problem? Many seem to be buying hand over fist. I just don't see many obvious buys.
Have you looked at Bank of Cyprus? This is similar to Eurobank except that this should be safer. Wilbur Ross owns 19% of this company.
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/bocr-at-bank-of-cyprus/
Only briefly but it didn't seem as attractive at first sight. In hindsight of course neither was Eurobank! Definitely was lucky there.
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I sold GOOG and PCLN today. I almost hit the sell button on Google after earnings at $640. At $673 and 31x earnings? No thank you. PCLN is similar for me. With the China news this morning, I'm not seeing PCLN getting a currency tailwind any time soon.
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Am I alone in having this problem? Many seem to be buying hand over fist. I just don't see many obvious buys.
I don't see any obvious buys. Fairfax and BRK are closest to being buys for me...
Well, maybe oil sector, but that's also not obvious. ;)
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Berkshire and Fairfax are in the realm of reasonable valuation. Very hard to tell whether they could deliver outperformance at this point so I'll stay away. Berkshire was very obviously cheap for almost 5 full years (!!) and isn't really now. No point in lowering my investing standards just because there are no alternatives imo.
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Tom
did you look at RX (Biosyent) , DAP-U (XPEL) - great micro-caps trading at reasonable valuation in my opinion.
decent CEO...
I believe RX still expects 35% growth and 50% for XPEL
they have been growing without debt or equity financing - a ver attractive figure for me (also why I like BRK and CSU... great companies don't need to issue shares or take on significant debt).
Gary
Also starting to run out of ideas, especially in the US. Seeing very little that I could invest 20%+ of my portfolio in and that offers 100%+ potential without too much risk. :(
After selling NTLS I'm "stuck" with 33% cash. Don't feel like buying large caps with maybe 50% upside or compounders that are decently priced either. This too requires patience I guess.
Am I alone in having this problem? Many seem to be buying hand over fist. I just don't see many obvious buys.
Have you looked at Bank of Cyprus? This is similar to Eurobank except that this should be safer. Wilbur Ross owns 19% of this company.
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/bocr-at-bank-of-cyprus/
Only briefly but it didn't seem as attractive at first sight. In hindsight of course neither was Eurobank! Definitely was lucky there.
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Am I alone in having this problem? Many seem to be buying hand over fist. I just don't see many obvious buys.
I don't see any obvious buys. Fairfax and BRK are closest to being buys for me...
Well, maybe oil sector, but that's also not obvious. ;)
Been selling a lot too recently. Out of MSFT,EBAY,AAPL, MTB warrants, NOV, half of AMZN etc. total exposure cut by half almost. Waiting to cut AIG as well.
Only invested in things with long term value (5+ years). I don't believe investments with positive catalysts will pan out in the near future.
Recent buys include FAST,RX,INP.V, PKTEF, LILAK
Hoping for a nice correction in the next 12 months.
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Tom
did you look at RX (Biosyent) , DAP-U (XPEL) - great micro-caps trading at reasonable valuation in my opinion.
decent CEO...
I believe RX still expects 35% growth and 50% for XPEL
they have been growing without debt or equity financing - a ver attractive figure for me (also why I like BRK and CSU... great companies don't need to issue shares or take on significant debt).
Gary
Also starting to run out of ideas, especially in the US. Seeing very little that I could invest 20%+ of my portfolio in and that offers 100%+ potential without too much risk. :(
After selling NTLS I'm "stuck" with 33% cash. Don't feel like buying large caps with maybe 50% upside or compounders that are decently priced either. This too requires patience I guess.
Am I alone in having this problem? Many seem to be buying hand over fist. I just don't see many obvious buys.
Have you looked at Bank of Cyprus? This is similar to Eurobank except that this should be safer. Wilbur Ross owns 19% of this company.
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/bocr-at-bank-of-cyprus/
Only briefly but it didn't seem as attractive at first sight. In hindsight of course neither was Eurobank! Definitely was lucky there.
I haven't yet but have seem those topics fly by. :) Very hard to read everything here these last few years so sometimes I miss a few. Thank you for the heads-up, I'll look them up!
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Well RR is a pretty obvious buy. I'm not sure that WMT is that obvious but I think it's on the cheaper side right now.
I'm not so keen on FFH. But yes BRK is somewhere around reasonably priced. It's a bit trickier for me to buy more cause it's already above 10% of the portfolio. But what's so wrong about buying a company like BRK around a reasonable valuation? Especially in an environment like this when you have many iffy companies trading at lofty multiples. Now, over 5 years maybe it will outperform an index or maybe not. If it doesn't I don't think it will be a terrible underperformance. One thing I'm pretty sure of is that it'll make a lot of money over the next 5 years, it'll be worth more after 5 years and it'll definitely outperform cash.
Oh, and I think one will sleep pretty good owning BRK over the next 5 years. I think that's probably worth something too.
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Been selling a lot too recently. Out of MSFT,EBAY,AAPL, MTB warrants, NOV, half of AMZN etc. total exposure cut by half almost. Waiting to cut AIG as well.
Only invested in things with long term value (5+ years). I don't believe investments with positive catalysts will pan out in the near future.
Recent buys include FAST,RX,INP.V, PKTEF, LILAK
Hoping for a nice correction in the next 12 months.
I'm curious, may I ask why you've sold out of MSFT? I've pared back as well over the past couple of years based on valuation. By why sell out if you don't need cash? Just valuation or do you have something about the business you don't like?
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Been selling a lot too recently. Out of MSFT,EBAY,AAPL, MTB warrants, NOV, half of AMZN etc. total exposure cut by half almost. Waiting to cut AIG as well.
Only invested in things with long term value (5+ years). I don't believe investments with positive catalysts will pan out in the near future.
Recent buys include FAST,RX,INP.V, PKTEF, LILAK
Hoping for a nice correction in the next 12 months.
I'm curious, may I ask why you've sold out of MSFT? I've pared back as well over the past couple of years based on valuation. By why sell out if you don't need cash? Just valuation or do you have something about the business you don't like?
Needed cash, had 140% exposure on margin earlier this year.
Didn't sell MSFT because i think its over valued. I think they have a decent strategy now and runway with cloud. But it will take time and investment to show up in earnings.
I had too much tech and financial large caps over the last couple of years. Did well. I think the valuations have now become more reasonable. Forward growth there is not as attractive, so scouting for other smaller fast growers. I will do large caps only if they are very cheap or growth runway is very attractive relative to price.
I am looking for 20%+ returns annually, so multiple expansion from valuation + dividends alone wont get me there, need growth and growth runway so I don't have to keep replacing these every year. Also avoiding margin leverage in the short run, until this rate hike, china devaluation, oil decline etc plays out.
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sold pcp,
although i'm not a huge fan of the deal for shareholders. seems likely that deal will go through on current offer.
proceeds moved into CMPR and BAM
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I sold a little FICO Monday because I needed some cash. I've held for almost 5 years and it was my first purchase so it was tough to sell. I really didn't want to sell either ELDO or MCO so the FICO sale was forced. I'm extremely concentrated and I have 20%+ cash over all accounts. That summarizes my opinions on the market opportunities pretty well. I sold <1/4 of my stake in FICO and it's still a 20%+ allocation.
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Been selling a lot too recently. Out of MSFT,EBAY,AAPL, MTB warrants, NOV, half of AMZN etc. total exposure cut by half almost. Waiting to cut AIG as well.
Well, I bought some AAPL and NOV recently. ;) Not obvious buys though.
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Well RR is a pretty obvious buy.
RR is totally not obvious to me. ;)
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Well RR is a pretty obvious buy.
RR is totally not obvious to me. ;)
well you do have to squint a bit
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Well RR is a pretty obvious buy.
RR is totally not obvious to me. ;)
well you do have to squint a bit
It might work well out for you, but for me it's too much of a turnaround plus complex accounting. A pass. :)
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KCLI, ITIC, Fujimak (TSE:5965)
I own and kinda like ITIC...seems reasonable to me at roughly book value.
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Reduced CHR.CPH [Chr. Hansen Holding A/S] from a small position [~1.5%] to a tracker position, yesterday, at quarterly reporting, at a gain of ~50% in about 18 months. Despite good progress and growth for the company, a P/E at around 40 makes no sense to me at the moment.
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Maybe Apple (someone talk me out of it!)
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Sold a bunch of stuff today. Good day to raise cash and clean portfolio. Sold some stuff yesterday too.
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Sold about 1/3 of my BAC position (all commons).
Would like to repurchase at some point, but we'll see what the market does.
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Sold a basket of Canadian marijuana stocks over the last two days.
Thanks
Lance
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A little (or a lot) of everything. At about 70% cash now. We'll see what happens, but I'm going to be sitting on the sidelines for a while.
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I trimmed a bit of everything, around 5% of the portfolio. I'm too afraid stocks double from here to trim substantially.
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Sold some EZPW at $11.20 yesterday
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I'd like to trim some stuff but I can't really :(. Some positions like WFC I still think is undervalued, others have large gains on them which will trigger lots of taxes and I have plenty of cash around. Just a heads up that some very interesting companies have been selling hard for a while and the election accelerated the selling. Could get interesting.
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VRX
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SAN [the large chunk of the position, that I bought at Brexit Day - sold at 5.80, bought at 3.88].
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DISCK - I think my thesis is broken after the earnings report. Cordcutting increasingly seems to become a strong headwind.
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Sold my last shares of ITIC at 2.3x book after owning shares for at least 10 years. This stock traded for 2/3 book in 2011. Consistent 7-12% ROE every year. It was a pleasure owning but getting ridiculous at current prices.
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Signs of a bull market, this topic is dead for over 6 months.
Sold out BRK-B today. I think it is still undervalued but made a decent gain in a month or two and now I'm going back to my small companies corner.
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Sold 75% of my position in Markel
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MTB
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Wondering why this thread is dead while the "buy" thread is active. That being said I haven't sold anything lately either.
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Nell-e,
Some board members actually do not sell, or sell seldom. [i.e. longinvestor and Valuehalla are in that camp, and you can include me there.]
Some board members selling or reducing their positions prefer to post about it in the particular topic in the Investment Idea forum.
Some board members prefer to post about their rebalancings gathered as one post in the buying topic.
Some board members don't post in detail about their doings. [We don't have to.]
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I appreciate you asking. It's a big board. It takes time to find out how things actually work around here.
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And we're in year nine of a bull market. We've bullied away the sellers on this forum and replaced them with compounders.
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And we're in year nine of a bull market. We've bullied away the sellers on this forum and replaced them with compounders.
I got an itchy sales finger. I must sit on my hands.
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I've been thinking a lot about selling my most expensive net nets (trading at around 0.75% of NCAV) and buying even cheaper net-nets or ones which have heavier cash balances like Namura Shipbuilding, KDM Shipping or Kikukawa Enterprises.
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It's also because some of us think it's kind of pointless to have two threads for the same purpose - I post my sales in the "What are you buying" thread just so all transactions are discussed in one place.
Also, I don't post ALL of my transactions - just the ones that cross my mind at the time and the ones that might be worth discussing. I imagine other board members are the same.
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WFC. [All out.]
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Not actually today, but Wednesday this week, where there was a price peak during the day:
"Legacy assets":
MAERSK B.CPH [A. P. Møller - Mærsk A/S, ser. B], at DKK 9,000.00.
My brother built a position gradually November 2014 - March 2015 at average cost at ~DKK 13,400/share, doubled down at ~DKK 8,600 in February 2016, sold half in November 2017 at ~DKK 10,400 based on my recommendation, just before he gave me trading power of attorney on his behalf. He's now out with a positive zero, because of dividends.
I'm happy it's over now - the future for this company does not exactly appear to be bright.
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Not actually today, but Wednesday this week, where there was a price peak during the day:
"Legacy assets":
MAERSK B.CPH [A. P. Møller - Mærsk A/S, ser. B], at DKK 9,000.00.
My brother built a position gradually November 2014 - March 2015 at average cost at ~DKK 13,400/share, doubled down at ~DKK 8,600 in February 2016, sold half in November 2017 at ~DKK 10,400 based on my recommendation, just before he gave me trading power of attorney on his behalf. He's now out with a positive zero, because of dividends.
I'm happy it's over now - the future for this company does not exactly appear to be bright.
The shipping industry is a disaster. Sure, money can be made in an disastrous industry, but why go there, when there are far easier way to do equally well with much less risk and effort.
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Reduced my position in ENB and FB a bit. I added to FB after a disaster CC and now have reduced my position to what I had prior. ENB was an overweight holding that I reduced after the run up. I started buying into this to early. Still one of my largest holdings right now.
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Reduced my position in ENB and FB a bit. I added to FB after a disaster CC and now have reduced my position to what I had prior. ENB was an overweight holding that I reduced after the run up. I started buying into this to early. Still one of my largest holdings right now.
Same idea as you with FB. Bought after CC, will reduce around 195 to my normal position.
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More "legacy assets" in my brothers portfolio - small positions:
FLS.CPH [F. L. Smidth & Co. A/S] [Website] (http://www.flsmidth.com/).
NDA DKK.CPH [Nordea Bank AB].
PAAL B.CPH [Per Aaarsleff Holding A/S B] [Website] (http://www.aarsleff.dk/).
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End of of legacy sweep, except PNDORA.
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CAH - that wasn't a pretty quarter.
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CAH - that wasn't a pretty quarter.
Why CAH and not the better managed MCK or ABC? Valuation is a bit less for CAH, but I think the better management at MCK or ABC more than compensates for the valuation difference.
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Didn't ask me, but its a selling thread
CAH - that wasn't a pretty quarter.
Why CAH and not the better managed MCK or ABC? Valuation is a bit less for CAH, but I think the better management at MCK or ABC more than compensates for the valuation difference.
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First [lowest] sell order for PNDORA.CPH [of 1/3, at 370] just filled.
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Second sell order for PNDORA.CPH [1/2 of the rest of the position, at 390] just filled.
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Third & last sell order for PNDORA.CPH [the rest of the position, at 410] just filled.
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Think of flipping from $CAG into $KHC. Seem roughly similarly valued and I won't have the paid through the nose/integration risk with the $PF deal.
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Sold about half of BRK.b holdings today.
Could be a relative mistake as the other Buyer may have a particular sense of intrinsic value.
Bought recently after Mr. Buffett "signalled" a message which I thought was inefficently picked up by Mr. Market and made it about a 27% position. Would be happy to hold BRK.b forever and it has been used as an opportunity cost reference. However, I felt I needed to bring the position down to size within my portfolios. Interesting also because I have been selling another relatively illiquid security (small position) over a few days and was able to sell BRK.b in 11 separate accounts during the last 8 minutes of trading.
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That actually reads like you have done a great short term trade in Berkshire, Cigarbutt,
To me it reads like you have done 6 - 7 percent within about 3 weeks on north of 10 percent of your total capital.
I came across a tweet (https://twitter.com/EdBorgato/status/1047932320735350784) by Ed Borgato today:
The phrase "buy and hold" should actually be "buy and keep learning; and always leave room to change your mind."
Doesn't actually have the same ring to it.
A part of it is also about learning about ourselves, right? [ : - ) ]
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...
I came across a tweet (https://twitter.com/EdBorgato/status/1047932320735350784) by Ed Borgato today:
The phrase "buy and hold" should actually be "buy and keep learning; and always leave room to change your mind."
Doesn't actually have the same ring to it.
A part of it is also about learning about ourselves, right? [ : - ) ]
So much to learn and so little time.
I guess you could call this work in progress but this short term stuff is mostly noise.
Ideally, it would be nice (and the right thing?) to be able to think like this gentleman, whom you may have heard of:
http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Nick-Train-The-King-of-Buy-and-Hold.pdf
For still an undefined period, will continue to have in mind St-Augustine's prayer who had his own way of formulating the paradigm between excellence and finish lines: "Lord make me pure, but not yet".
I'm also looking forward to your comments (especially concerning what's written between the lines) about Mr. Marks' latest book.
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I should probably sell everything, except BRK, since my head seems to be filled with cognitive biases.
A small portfolio of rental homes would be in my wheelhouse but would require more actual work.
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I'm taking a break from Twitter & the 24 hour news cycle for the rest of this month & will concentrate on my circle of competence (music & school) and my sphere of influence (the space that extends slightly beyond the length of my arms.)
I'll still peek in here to see if there's any interesting discussions about what I own but, as has been since its creation, the politics section is off limits.
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I've been leaving the cellphone at home a lot & going to study in the afternoons under an umbrella at the beach & am considering expanding this by leaving the phone at home when I go to school.
It would stay connected to a wall, just like back in the day (no party line though.)
It feels liberating to be out of touch while at the same time being more in touch with what is actually near me.
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Small positions - legacy assets :
LUN.CPH [H. Lundbeck A/S] - has done very well - not especially expensive right now, I think - just time to move on.
GEN.CPH [Genmab A/S] - has done well - biotech, thereby outside my circle.
SIE.ETR [Siemens AG NA, Deutsche Börse, Xetra market] - has gone nowhere for years ex. dividends - not a bad business - please look up posts by Spekulatius about it if any interest - just time to move on.
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I should probably sell everything, except BRK, since my head seems to be filled with cognitive biases.
A small portfolio of rental homes would be in my wheelhouse but would require more actual work.
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I'm taking a break from Twitter & the 24 hour news cycle for the rest of this month & will concentrate on my circle of competence (music & school) and my sphere of influence (the space that extends slightly beyond the length of my arms.)
I'll still peek in here to see if there's any interesting discussions about what I own but, as has been since its creation, the politics section is off limits.
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I've been leaving the cellphone at home a lot & going to study in the afternoons under an umbrella at the beach & am considering expanding this by leaving the phone at home when I go to school.
It would stay connected to a wall, just like back in the day (no party line though.)
It feels liberating to be out of touch while at the same time being more in touch with what is actually near me.
Good for you leaving your cell home. The new Marshmallow test of self-discipline, the ability to resist a blinking inbox or a buzzing phone
Larry D. Rosen, L. Mark Carrier, and Nancy A. Cheever, “Facebook and texting made me do it: Media-induced task-switching while studying,” Computers in Human Behavior, Vol. 29, pages 948-958, May 2013.
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Small positions - legacy assets :
COLO B.CPH [Coloplast A/S B]
NZYM B.CPH [Novozymes A/S B]
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Sold all of my Autozone stock last week (lucky timing). I might regret this a couple of years down the line, because these guys have a winning formula, but there's a real opportunity cost, and it was a really good IRR after the Amazon scare blew over. Lots of stuff looks attractive right now so solely sold on valuation (which isn't even that demanding to be honest).
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EPAM...valuation is much higher than when I purchased so trimmed by 50% despite fundamentals continuing to hold up.
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I exited my Markel position. Not sure if that'll be a long term mistake, but didn't see enough positive to hold.
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466 shares of ELAN... :)
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Apple: Sold Jan 2020 $200 calls against my entire long position after its pretty crazy run this week. 6% premium for 7% OTM call. Quite happy to get this opportunity after how much I was down on this stock 3 months ago.
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Some of my lower cost Altria shares for a small gain.
Still believe CEO & BOD are idiots.
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Some of my lower cost Altria shares for a small gain.
Still believe CEO & BOD are idiots.
Why do you sell your lower cost shares ? You should sell your high cost shares, perhaps take a loss and either wash sale it by parking in another tobacco stock or just rebuying 31 days later.
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Spekulatius,
Back in November 2018 - here (http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/affordable-care-act/msg351489/#msg351489) - Jeff contributed in the ACA topic with a post, based on his personal & actual situation :
My previous employers obligation to provide me with COBRA insurance came to an end on 30 September.
Faced with the need to mitigate the potential risk to all that I've worked for & saved, I stopped in
at the BCBS service center which is conveniently located right across the street from school.
I had been paying Chouest $437 a month for the same great coverage which had previously cost me $104.30
(I thought the higher premium was still a bargain, thank you Gary Chouest!) & I expected to have to
start paying the same or more for a significantly higher deductible.
Instead, the ACA will provide assistance, which will result in a monthly premium of just $22.55 with no deductible &
a $2500 annual max out of pocket expense.
If you make less than $12,060 per year you get zip.
Passive income counts & I qualify for 2019 with the following projections:
$8,200 - Pell Grant estimate
$12,000 - expected dividends & cap gains
I expect to take advantage of this until May of 2022 when I'll earn a Bachelors degree & get back to work.
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I thought this might interest anyone who has a friend or relative who needs assistance but hasn't yet gotten it.
Open enrollment is going on NOW.
Anyone who feels like I'm a slacker for doing this should examine whether they enjoy professional musical entertainment after a hard day at the office.
(They should also follow me around for a week to see how hard this stuff actually is...)
So much for the US Health Care System. If you are a healthy person in good mental shape, alone maneuvering this system may eventually put you on medication.
-
The amount of brain damage that single payer system would save US citizens alone makes it worth it. ;D
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Some of my lower cost Altria shares for a small gain.
Still believe CEO & BOD are idiots.
Why do you sell your lower cost shares ? You should sell your high cost shares, perhaps take a loss and either wash sale it by parking in another tobacco stock or just rebuying 31 days later.
Read my signature below.
The part right before the Twitter link.
[edit]: i forgot to add that I'm also still long MO Calls - Jan 2020 $52.50's & Jan 2021 $50's (fingers crossed...)
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The amount of brain damage that single payer system would save US citizens alone makes it worth it. ;D
I'm single & was paying for drinks at the FloraBama last night.
I feel a lot more sane today.
That is all.
;D
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Spekulatius,
Back in November 2018 - here (http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/affordable-care-act/msg351489/#msg351489) - Jeff contributed in the ACA topic with a post, based on his personal & actual situation :
My previous employers obligation to provide me with COBRA insurance came to an end on 30 September.
Faced with the need to mitigate the potential risk to all that I've worked for & saved, I stopped in
at the BCBS service center which is conveniently located right across the street from school.
I had been paying Chouest $437 a month for the same great coverage which had previously cost me $104.30
(I thought the higher premium was still a bargain, thank you Gary Chouest!) & I expected to have to
start paying the same or more for a significantly higher deductible.
Instead, the ACA will provide assistance, which will result in a monthly premium of just $22.55 with no deductible &
a $2500 annual max out of pocket expense.
If you make less than $12,060 per year you get zip.
Passive income counts & I qualify for 2019 with the following projections:
$8,200 - Pell Grant estimate
$12,000 - expected dividends & cap gains
I expect to take advantage of this until May of 2022 when I'll earn a Bachelors degree & get back to work.
---
I thought this might interest anyone who has a friend or relative who needs assistance but hasn't yet gotten it.
Open enrollment is going on NOW.
Anyone who feels like I'm a slacker for doing this should examine whether they enjoy professional musical entertainment after a hard day at the office.
(They should also follow me around for a week to see how hard this stuff actually is...)
So much for the US Health Care System. If you are a healthy person in good mental shape, alone maneuvering this system may eventually put you on medication.
I'm deeply distracted by the sunk cost fallacy & find it difficult to sell shares of MO which are slightly underwater.
I know that I should sell if I don't believe that management is making good moves (and I don't.)
I should turn that into an if/then statement & see if it's a tautology.
Or would it be better to use a Venn diagram?
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The amount of brain damage that single payer system would save US citizens alone makes it worth it. ;D
I'm single & was paying for drinks at the FloraBama last night.
I feel a lot more sane today.
That is all.
;D
water and advil, my friend ;D ;D
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Did some spring cleaning
MO
NEWR
PANW
HACK
LSXMK
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BBH for a 30ish % gain in a non-taxable account.
Slowly paring down the number of things I own.
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Sold the remainder ( except one share) of my few PDER shares.
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Wrote 300-strike April 26 expiration calls on TSLA, $2.40 a share.
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Wrote 300-strike April 26 expiration calls on TSLA, $2.40 a share.
You wrote naked calls? Before the hype event next week?
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Wrote 300-strike April 26 expiration calls on TSLA, $2.40 a share.
You wrote naked calls? Before the hype event next week?
Yes, naked calls. I would love for Tesla to be successful. I had a model 3 on order but canceled it, I believe back in January.
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Most things. I've raised a significant cash position recently. My reasoning is below.
https://twitter.com/tonyjclayton/status/1118205158721249280
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Shorted SMH and XHB
Thanks
Lance
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5% of my GXE position. But only because I had a 50% gain in an already large position in a matter of weeks. Bought more CRC leaps instead.
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I feel I need to de-risk my portfolio a bit. Probably the best thing to do is simply move to cash. However, I have to ask if anyone sees any good puts for general portfolio protection? In other words, what is very overpriced, will get hammered in a general economic slowdown and has leaps available?
-
Sold some EPAM to bring down position size. Sold TCEHY and PLCE
-
Sold off half my LBRDA. It seems to have outperformed CHTR ( which I own as well).
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Sold all my COKE (the bottling company). Almost a double YTD and had to cash that in, then it went up another 4% after that.
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AAPL & LBRDK, both purchased in late December/early January.
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Shorted VBK. Closed SMH short.
Thanks
Lance
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Shorted VBK. Closed SMH short.
Thanks
Lance
Curious on your thesis for shorting VBK?
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Hi Castanza - am anticipating volatility and lower prices over the next 6 months, but don’t want to part with anything and I’m already sitting on a pile of TLT. I think VBK has more downside than the S&P 500. Also, will short SMH again and add to XHB short on future increases.
Thanks
Lance
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MFCB
Finally!
I have owned this dog for 3 long ugly years. Avg price >$10. Had too much, so couldn't stomach averaging down when it was in the $4s six months ago. Held off selling until opening today (luck, was trying yesterday - just didn't get filled), and scale sold all the way up. You know that feeling when you don't care if buyers make money from here? I don't care that I am selling at <60% of "book" value. Good riddance MFCB and Michael Smith.
This company reminds me a bit of the Dumbdees - "good" resource related Canadian investor goes bad; no really, really bad. Epic destroyer of capital, hubris, etc.
I suppose there should be a lesson in this for me. I don't mind investigating these train wrecks. I love the volatility. They do have potential for multi-bagger gains from the lows. I've done better in Dumbdee - maybe because I started with the preferreds, started smaller and traded around the position several times.
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MFCB
Finally!
I have owned this dog for 3 long ugly years. Avg price >$10. Had too much, so couldn't stomach averaging down when it was in the $4s six months ago. Held off selling until opening today (luck, was trying yesterday - just didn't get filled), and scale sold all the way up. You know that feeling when you don't care if buyers make money from here? I don't care that I am selling at <60% of "book" value. Good riddance MFCB and Michael Smith.
This company reminds me a bit of the Dumbdees - "good" resource related Canadian investor goes bad; no really, really bad. Epic destroyer of capital, hubris, etc.
I suppose there should be a lesson in this for me. I don't mind investigating these train wrecks. I love the volatility. They do have potential for multi-bagger gains from the lows. I've done better in Dumbdee - maybe because I started with the preferreds, started smaller and traded around the position several times.
Agreed. I did well on MFCB (bought at $5, sold at $8.50) but felt at that time the margin of safety wasn't there anymore. Obviously sold way too soon. Completely agree on management here, although they do seem to be doing the right things right now - simplifying balance sheet, paying off debt, focusing on the iron ore royalty. I actually think the name change they announced (to "scully incorporated") is potentially a big deal. Its stupid that matters, but I think Canadian mining investors will be more comfortable buying it if the royalty is right in the name. If they made it a pass through (like LIF) there would still be big upside from here.
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Hi Castanza - am anticipating volatility and lower prices over the next 6 months, but don’t want to part with anything and I’m already sitting on a pile of TLT. I think VBK has more downside than the S&P 500. Also, will short SMH again and add to XHB short on future increases.
Thanks
Lance
Hi Lance,
In this cycle, I have parked a variable amount of "excess" cash in TLT.
An argument could be made that it is becoming increasingly reckless to invest in "risk-free" long-term bonds with a shorter-duration mindset but what else is new?
In a 1999 investors' expectations article, Mr. Buffett quipped that if one thought that the US was becoming like Japan, the way to go was to buy options on bonds. He also "expected" that the Dow Jones would return about 6% over time.
In that article, he compared the return (total return, per year) of a government 30-yr bond to the Dow Jones (1981-1998).
30 yr-bond: 13% (!)
Dow Jones: 19% (!)
Since then:
30-yr bond: 7.8%
S&P: 5.4%
1981 to now:
30-yr bond: about 10%
stock index: about 11%
Further easing would likely put the 30-yr bond back in the leading position and I wouldn't want to be in charge of a pension fund right now.
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MFCB
Finally!
I have owned this dog for 3 long ugly years. Avg price >$10. Had too much, so couldn't stomach averaging down when it was in the $4s six months ago. Held off selling until opening today (luck, was trying yesterday - just didn't get filled), and scale sold all the way up. You know that feeling when you don't care if buyers make money from here? I don't care that I am selling at <60% of "book" value. Good riddance MFCB and Michael Smith.
This company reminds me a bit of the Dumbdees - "good" resource related Canadian investor goes bad; no really, really bad. Epic destroyer of capital, hubris, etc.
I suppose there should be a lesson in this for me. I don't mind investigating these train wrecks. I love the volatility. They do have potential for multi-bagger gains from the lows. I've done better in Dumbdee - maybe because I started with the preferreds, started smaller and traded around the position several times.
That feeling of relief and joy, when pigs in the portfolio fly, is priceless!
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Reduced position a bit in NOVO B.CPH [NVO][in my father's account], to buy BRK.B, combined with pulling money off the table [money, that will never end up on the table again, but that will be allocated to one of his "high interest rate" accounts at Bank Norwegian ASA or Santander Consumer Bank ASA - those accounts are not part of my defined AUM].
I'm trying here to reduce risk.
-
sold the last of my TSLA Puts for 100+% gain in the last year.
Decided to leave the drama behind but this probably means I am leaving money on the table.
-
Sold 10% of my BX. Still cheap, but I think short term its overshot.
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Sold 75% of my HSY - Hershey position. Merely profit taking as it was my best performer this past year. Cost average was 95ish and sold today for 136. My thesis hasn't changed much on the company in general, but this rapid ramp up in price made me want to take some profits.
Edit: Tariff tensions are making me a bit uneasy with HSY. The three Mexican plants are quite important in supporting the North American supply chain. I'm uncertain how tariffs will affect the NA segment. NA makes up about 89% of HSY market where Brazil, MX, China, India make up most of the remaining market share. India is their fastest growing international market.
One thing I do like is Hershey owns all but 2(located in Georgia and NY) manufacturing plants. And in general, their products are manufactured in the marketplace which they will be selling. This helps reduce risk somewhat. Noticed a large surge in $125 August puts today and figured, might as well take profits. Honestly, this has been one of my best plays.
Link to the 10-k if anyone was interested. Don't think I've seen this stock covered on here.
https://www.thehersheycompany.com/content/dam/corporate-us/documents/annual-reports/2019-proxy-statement.pdf
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Sold LBRDA and CHTR over the past few days. It may be a stupid decision as CHTR is on the cusp of gushing FCF, but I have made good returns on them in 16 months so I think there could be better opportunities in the rest of the Liberty empire and the rest of the market. Sitting on about 30% cash at the moment.
-
Trimming CRSP.
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Sold off more than half of my Alliance Data (ADS) shares. When they sold off a big chunk of their business at an okay price and it still didn't move the needle for them I started getting tired of waiting.
As I get more concerned about the economy, a company that has credit card receivables starts to look less attractive when you can pick up some BRK at under $200 (Buffett was buying back shares at a little more than this price last quarter) and FRFHF and Fairfax India at decent prices too, and they tend to scoop up bargains when it gets ugly on the street.
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Sold DIS. I think it is fully valued.
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Shorted TSLA
Thanks
Lance
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Sold DIS. I think it is fully valued.
I think the price is going much higher. They're going to have excellent subscription numbers for the Disney+ channel. More Blockbuster movies on the way including Toy Story 4, Star Wars Episode 9, Frozen 2, and Lion King.
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Sold DIS. I think it is fully valued.
I think the price is going much higher. They're going to have excellent subscription numbers for the Disney+ channel. More Blockbuster movies on the way including Toy Story 4, Star Wars Episode 9, Frozen 2, and Lion King.
Possibly true. I am mostly worried about ESPN.
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EXO.MI, FCAU, FRA.DE
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Sold DIS. I think it is fully valued.
I feel the same way about their valuation. But every single time I've sold something I believe to be an excellent business for that reason I've regretted it, so I'm holding for now.
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EXO.MI, FCAU, FRA.DE
Spekulatius,
I've - with great interest - been following your moves for years. [However I do not understand some of your moves, to me basically because your investment universe is much larger than mine, based on that you have multiples of investment experience & stock picking knowledge compared to me.]
This move by you is a surprise to me with regard to EXOR.MI & FCAU [I'm unopinionated with regard to FRA.DE.] If you would take the time to elaborate just a bit on your line of thinking here, I would personally appreciate it very much.
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EXO.MI, FCAU, FRA.DE
Spekulatius,
I've - with great interest - been following your moves for years. [However I do not understand some of your moves, to me basically because your investment universe is much larger than mine, based on that you have multiples of investment experience & stock picking knowledge compared to me.]
This move by you is a surprise to me with regard to EXOR.MI & FCAU [I'm unopinionated with regard to FRA.DE.] If you would take the time to elaborate just a bit on your line of thinking here, I would personally appreciate it very much.
As far as EXO.MI is concerned, I made the decision to reduce cyclicals, especially automotive in my portfolio. EXO via FCAU and CNHI (the latter may be overvalued actually) is quite exposed. I have not changed my opinion on management. I only sold my position in tax deferred account and keep my position on a taxable account.
FRA.DE simply has reached my valuation target. I am surprised it rerated that quickly, because they will have negative FCF due to an investment in Capex for the next few years.
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Thank you for sharing, Spekulatius.
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Not a big deal, but 1-3 year Treasurys.
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Shorting more TSLA.
Thanks
Lance
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Reduced position a bit in NOVO B.CPH [NVO][in my father's account], to buy BRK.B, combined with pulling money off the table [money, that will never end up on the table again, but that will be allocated to one of his "high interest rate" accounts at Bank Norwegian ASA or Santander Consumer Bank ASA - those accounts are not part of my defined AUM]....
Pulled out all available cash in my fathers account again today.
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MX and EBAY
-
Sold out all of my Apple (AAPL) shares and about a third of my Liberty Latin America (LILAK) shares.
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Sold out all of my Apple (AAPL) shares and about a third of my Liberty Latin America (LILAK) shares.
I sold the rest of my Apple too & will be happy to get exposure to them through BRK.
Also sold:
1/2 of my Charter for a 50ish% gain in a bit over a year & will hold the rest in a tax advantaged account until whenever (Thank you Liberty :) )
1/2 of ABEV for a 16ish% gain & will hold the rest in a tax advantaged account until whenever also.
20% of my Disney for a 38ish% gain & will hold the rest in taxable account until same.
---
Marshaling cash (again) & I would repurchase any of these on significant weakness (probably...)
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FRFHF, ENB and DVA. I sold ENB due to Line 3 and now Line 5 troubles. DVA was stub position and was sold due to poor fundamentals are. FRFHF will be converted into BRK.B eventually.
I also trimmed WFC a bit as I was way too overweighted and I am getting concerned about earnings power at lower interest rates. I would buy it back if shares fall back a little again.
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CTVA
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HHC
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HHC
Same here. That went well.
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HHC
Same here. That went well.
I pushed the sell button on this one a little too quickly this morning, which was an unforced error. That said, it's hard to complain about the results for a position I held less than 48 hours. I thought it was a little too cheap in the mid $90s, but I'm not nearly as bullish on HHC as some of this forum are.
I also sold my small Bayer position this morning.
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HHC
Same here. That went well.
I pushed the sell button on this one a little too quickly this morning, which was an unforced error. That said, it's hard to complain about the results for a position I held less than 48 hours. I thought it was a little too cheap in the mid $90s, but I'm not nearly as bullish on HHC as some of this forum are.
I also sold my small Bayer position this morning.
Yea I bought this thinking if I could get a quick bounce to $100 I'd be thrilled. Did a little better than that, but not much. Dont care. Like you, I am not as hot on this as others, although that isn't to say I don't like it. When you trade, you have to follow your rules and be disciplined. While theres always remorse when something keeps soaring, you have to remember that pigs get slaughtered. I dont really ever sell my core holdings, and I trade on margin, so staying within the parameters I set for myself entering a trade, is a must.
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^ Same here. It’s polite to leave some money on the table for the guy buying the stock you just sold. Igor more than 20% out of my purchase and rolled the proceeds into VNO
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Trimmed FRPH into that late day spike north of $55.
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FRFHF will be converted into BRK.B eventually.
I own both and have not bought or sold either in a while. I like both as counter-cyclical bets because they tend to get great deals in a downturn. Why do you prefer BRK? (I think it's a great company, but so big that I wonder if there are more doubles or triples in there)
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Reduced position a bit in NOVO B.CPH [NVO][in my father's account], to buy BRK.B, combined with pulling money off the table [money, that will never end up on the table again, but that will be allocated to one of his "high interest rate" accounts at Bank Norwegian ASA or Santander Consumer Bank ASA - those accounts are not part of my defined AUM]....
Pulled out all available cash in my fathers account again today.
Sold a bit less than one third of my fathers position in SAN today [at a loss]. It appears the account won't stay under the set goal/max. exposure, set now more than 5 years ago. I will drag out the cash [for good], when it's available after two days, if things don't fall back again.
- - - o 0 o - - -
It's starting to feel like raising a tent on a windy spot on sandy soil, where the tent plugs on the windy side of tent get dragged up from the soil by the wind pressure on the tent, where you use the rubber hammer again and again on the plugs. The difference between this activity and the "tent-plugs-won't-stay-in-the-sandy-soil-because-of-wind" analogy is that this activity does not feel annoying. I begin to understand how Mike [boilermaker] feels when Mike has been selling Berkshire B puts below 200.
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Sold UA and sold YELP.
UA appreciated significantly and the business has not turned around much if at all over a couple years. Meanwhile the stock is up 75-80%.
YELP I bought into based on someone else's research without doing adequate research of my own. I am not comfortable with the direction of the business and this is a good reminder to always do my own work, even if piggybacking on successful investors.
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Trimming some CLF and probably BX too. What an under the radar monster BX has been this year. Even prior to the conversion announcement.
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Trimming some CLF and probably BX too. What an under the radar monster BX has been this year. Even prior to the conversion announcement.
Gregmal - between BX and HHC you're killing it.
Sold FPF and bought back TLT puts.
Thanks
Lance
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Trimming some CLF and probably BX too. What an under the radar monster BX has been this year. Even prior to the conversion announcement.
Gregmal - between BX and HHC you're killing it.
Sold FPF and bought back TLT puts.
Thanks
Lance
Thanks. HHC was just a lucky timing thing on a gut feeling. BX is a longer term position for me and proof patience pays off. Now if only GM can follow suit... I am getting a little bearish though...
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Sold GM at open on Monday.
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Reduced position a bit in NOVO B.CPH [NVO][in my father's account], to buy BRK.B, combined with pulling money off the table [money, that will never end up on the table again, but that will be allocated to one of his "high interest rate" accounts at Bank Norwegian ASA or Santander Consumer Bank ASA - those accounts are not part of my defined AUM]....
Pulled out all available cash in my fathers account again today.
Sold a bit less than one third of my fathers position in SAN today [at a loss]. It appears the account won't stay under the set goal/max. exposure, set now more than 5 years ago. I will drag out the cash [for good], when it's available after two days, if things don't fall back again. ...
Sold a bit more SAN today.
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Sold to close OSTK $10 Sept calls
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Sold to close Aug 16 $17.5 calls at 76% gain. Could be more upside but I couldn't pass up 76% gain in a matter of 15 days. Might buy in again if there is a pullback.
-
Trimming CVS a bit
-
trimming some CLF
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Sold 75% of my HSY - Hershey position. Merely profit taking as it was my best performer this past year. Cost average was 95ish and sold today for 136. My thesis hasn't changed much on the company in general, but this rapid ramp up in price made me want to take some profits.
Edit: Tariff tensions are making me a bit uneasy with HSY. The three Mexican plants are quite important in supporting the North American supply chain. I'm uncertain how tariffs will affect the NA segment. NA makes up about 89% of HSY market where Brazil, MX, China, India make up most of the remaining market share. India is their fastest growing international market.
One thing I do like is Hershey owns all but 2(located in Georgia and NY) manufacturing plants. And in general, their products are manufactured in the marketplace which they will be selling. This helps reduce risk somewhat. Noticed a large surge in $125 August puts today and figured, might as well take profits. Honestly, this has been one of my best plays.
Link to the 10-k if anyone was interested. Don't think I've seen this stock covered on here.
https://www.thehersheycompany.com/content/dam/corporate-us/documents/annual-reports/2019-proxy-statement.pdf
Kicking myself one month later...who would have thought this was going to keep running?!
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Sold last of my NXPI premarket at 102. Busted merger play that ended up producing a respectable shorter term IRR after trading around it(December helped big time).
Noticing a trend with this company that I'm not a fan of, and I'm already overweight GOOG, GM, and CIBR, which roundaboutly cover all the things I felt I liked about NXPI.
EDIT: Also sold last of my JOE; again, thanks December!
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EDIT: Also sold last of my JOE; again, thanks December!
Did you buy JOE in December? If so, you did great. I'm still a holder.
Been selling off a little of HHC. Still like the company and the assets, but I see some cheaper stuff out there and I'm overweight in real estate (also own SRG and TPHS).
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EDIT: Also sold last of my JOE; again, thanks December!
Did you buy JOE in December? If so, you did great. I'm still a holder.
Been selling off a little of HHC. Still like the company and the assets, but I see some cheaper stuff out there and I'm overweight in real estate (also own SRG and TPHS).
Same deal for me, just somewhat different names. Too much cheap real estate. If I can easily determine a real estate company is sitting on assets(or debt) that won't turn the equity into a 0, just wait for a big enough pullback or margin of safety and then buy it on margin. The downside is not all of those can be long term holdings.
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Sold my DF position for a nice return. I was planning to go long but recent run up isn't based on any fundamentals and tomorrows earnings report is likely to be more bad news.
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Sold my DF position for a nice return. I was planning to go long but recent run up isn't based on any fundamentals and tomorrows earnings report is likely to be more bad news.
Impressive return during your holding period.
It seems that Mr. Market is offering another opportunity unless the latest report has changed your assessment of the fundamentals?
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EDIT: Also sold last of my JOE; again, thanks December!
Did you buy JOE in December? If so, you did great. I'm still a holder.
Been selling off a little of HHC. Still like the company and the assets, but I see some cheaper stuff out there and I'm overweight in real estate (also own SRG and TPHS).
Same deal for me, just somewhat different names. Too much cheap real estate. If I can easily determine a real estate company is sitting on assets(or debt) that won't turn the equity into a 0, just wait for a big enough pullback or margin of safety and then buy it on margin. The downside is not all of those can be long term holdings.
I have learned that lesson via companies like Keck Seng, where compounding over long periods is hard if management overpays for assets.
Right now, I still hold HHC, but I'm more interested in adding to Griffin Industrial and FRP Holdings. Griffin seems clearly undervalued to NAV, NAV appears to be growing, and you can see a 3-5 plan (maybe sooner) on how that gap would close, particularly if interest rates stay low. FRP's NAV, on the other hand, is tougher to estimate, but you get to invest alongside the Bakers at the same prices (or lower) that they are buying back shares. You could do much worse than simply giving the Bakers your money via FRP and watch them act prudently and harvest assets at the right time, as they've done many times in the past. And if you want to see what a great asset looks, just look at what they don't sell -- royalties on rock piles.
One real-estate related company that I've haven't seen discussed on here is Canterbury Park Holdings. That may interest some on here, but it's much more of a single asset real estate play, and the attached race track operating business is having issues.
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EDIT: Also sold last of my JOE; again, thanks December!
Did you buy JOE in December? If so, you did great. I'm still a holder.
Been selling off a little of HHC. Still like the company and the assets, but I see some cheaper stuff out there and I'm overweight in real estate (also own SRG and TPHS).
Same deal for me, just somewhat different names. Too much cheap real estate. If I can easily determine a real estate company is sitting on assets(or debt) that won't turn the equity into a 0, just wait for a big enough pullback or margin of safety and then buy it on margin. The downside is not all of those can be long term holdings.
I have learned that lesson via companies like Keck Seng, where compounding over long periods is hard if management overpays for assets.
Right now, I still hold HHC, but I'm more interested in adding to Griffin Industrial and FRP Holdings. Griffin seems clearly undervalued to NAV, NAV appears to be growing, and you can see a 3-5 plan (maybe sooner) on how that gap would close, particularly if interest rates stay low. FRP's NAV, on the other hand, is tougher to estimate, but you get to invest alongside the Bakers at the same prices (or lower) that they are buying back shares. You could do much worse than simply giving the Bakers your money via FRP and watch them act prudently and harvest assets at the right time, as they've done many times in the past. And if you want to see what a great asset looks, just look at what they don't sell -- royalties on rock piles.
One real-estate related company that I've haven't seen discussed on here is Canterbury Park Holdings. That may interest some on here, but it's much more of a single asset real estate play, and the attached race track operating business is having issues.
Aha! You've been using the same strategy? Buying below FRPH disclosed repurchase prices has worked well.
Have not heard of Canterbury. Sounds a little like Dover Downs. Thanks
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Sold REZI after the earnings report. I had reduced my position before the CC, but sold out after. While they made the revenue and earnings number, it was a very low quality report. Gross margin does and the pro forma # excludes the indemnity payment to HON (capped at $140M/ year). This payment is represented on the balance sheet as a $580M liability , but I think it will cost more. Anyway, thy have about $1.1B in debt (costing ~$70M in interest) and don’t seem to be able to generate any FCF currently. I misjudged this, it’s another crappo spinoff (GTX is a sinking ship also), so I take my 15% loss and move on.
KTB is doing better than I thought, also the earnings report is nothing to write home about either.
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Sold PRSP. Seems fully valued.
-
Sold another portion of the residual TLT (20-30 yr US gov. bond ETF) position.
Moving away from macro trends as this position makes less and less sense from a long term (and fundamental) point of view.
Have kept a smallish position in case the reflexive crowd takes over before the whatever it takes modern fiscal stimulus crowd does.
An interesting aspect is that the pre-defined trigger (price) for the sale of that portion was met before actual economic deterioration made it to the surface, a combination of divergence I never thought possible when this theme was developed in my portfolios years ago.
What is unfolding is absolutely fascinating.
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Sold another portion of the residual TLT (20-30 yr US gov. bond ETF) position.
Moving away from macro trends as this position makes less and less sense from a long term (and fundamental) point of view.
Have kept a smallish position in case the reflexive crowd takes over before the whatever it takes modern fiscal stimulus crowd does.
An interesting aspect is that the pre-defined trigger (price) for the sale of that portion was met before actual economic deterioration made it to the surface, a combination of divergence I never thought possible when this theme was developed in my portfolios years ago.
What is unfolding is absolutely fascinating.
I tend to agree. Bonds are literally screaming recession and stocks are still bumping along like it's not a big deal.
I wasn't old enough, or educated enough, to recall much of the events from 2000 and 2008 (other than I was the naive idiot buying banks, autos, and dry shippers in 2007/2008 ), but this seems crazy and I'm assuming is atypical.
It's not so much a divergence in performance that bothers me, but the divergence in the narrative.
Bonds are saying there's no need to be concerned with inflation and/or GDP growth is going to be muted for the next 30-years.
Stocks plucking along at high P/Es with near record margins suggests equity markets see no danger to nominal GDP growth/inflation.
I know I've sounded like a broken record since 2016, but my concern is contracting multiples on top of contracting earnings. Not hard to get a 60% decline in such a scenario.
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Sold another portion of the residual TLT (20-30 yr US gov. bond ETF) position.
Moving away from macro trends as this position makes less and less sense from a long term (and fundamental) point of view.
Have kept a smallish position in case the reflexive crowd takes over before the whatever it takes modern fiscal stimulus crowd does.
An interesting aspect is that the pre-defined trigger (price) for the sale of that portion was met before actual economic deterioration made it to the surface, a combination of divergence I never thought possible when this theme was developed in my portfolios years ago.
What is unfolding is absolutely fascinating.
I tend to agree. Bonds are literally screaming recession and stocks are still bumping along like it's not a big deal.
I wasn't old enough, or educated enough, to recall much of the events from 2000 and 2008 (other than I was the naive idiot buying banks, autos, and dry shippers in 2007/2008 ), but this seems crazy and I'm assuming is atypical.
It's not so much a divergence in performance that bothers me, but the divergence in the narrative.
Bonds are saying there's no need to be concerned with inflation and/or GDP growth is going to be muted for the next 30-years.
Stocks plucking along at high P/Es with near record margins suggests equity markets see no danger to nominal GDP growth/inflation.
I know I've sounded like a broken record since 2016, but my concern is contracting multiples on top of contracting earnings. Not hard to get a 60% decline in such a scenario.
Congrats to Cigarbutt and others for the successful trade. I agree that it is probably a good idea to avoid overplaying this one.
Regarding the divergence between the bond and stock markets, I think the general consensus among macro traders has long been that the bond market tends to be the better forecaster. This tendency may have strengthened in recent years by the rise of algorithmic trading and passive investing in equity markets.
I personally think the big long term risk for equities in general now is political, i.e., changes in regulations/taxes/etc that make businesses much less profitable. We’re already seeing all sorts of signs pointing in that direction. This is also the worst type of risk for investors IMO because it is the kind of thing that can potentially cause businesses to gradually lose their value over the course of many years and not recover.
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I think that you guys ignore that there are 2 stock markets: the hyped/new/very large high tech and the rest trading like a depression is coming.
Cardboard
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I think that you guys ignore that there are 2 stock markets: the hyped/new/very large high tech and the rest trading like a depression is coming.
Cardboard
I own oil stocks Cardboard. Along with other base metal royalty owners and producers, a few good miners, and a ton of EM exposure particularly to Russia.
I know where the market is cheap - but cheap sectors get cheaper in a recession so why blow the load and throw caution to the wind just because SOME areas are cheap now?
I'd rather wait for everything to get cheap and throw darts at the board.
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I wish puts were cheaper, but with a VIX if 19, puts are a no- go for me, so I raise some cash instead. I do share the aforementioned concerns.
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Trimmed about 10% of my BX. Dont know what's wrong with this stock but it won't go down...
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Trimmed about 10% of my BX. Dont know what's wrong with this stock but it won't go down...
-Have followed BX for a long time and thought they did very well bridging the 2007-9 period (well timed IPO, timely reversal to mortgage exposures).
-Since that time, the market return on BX has been more lumpy and to some extent better (especially if measured after the recent run) than the S&P index.
-Is Mr. Byron Wien still around? I felt he was an interesting contrarian input vs downside risk.
-Alternative asset managers have done very well in this investor post-traumatic stress syndrome and reaching for alternative yield world and, in retrospect, it's a good thing they didn't follow Mr. Wien's instincts.
-In the PE world, it seems to me that leveraged deals are more leveraged and coverage ratios are tighter. Is BX following the trend and is the reported carried interest at risk?
-In one sentence, where do you see BX in 5 to 10 years?
https://www.blackstone.com/media/press-releases/article/the-smartest-man-is-a-firedancer
https://www.blackstone.com/docs/default-source/black-papers/seeking-an-alternative_standard_v68_web.pdf?sfvrsn=fd0c2cad_22
Feel free not to answer or start a new thread.
FWIW, I'm still working on a life lesson mentioned by Mr. Wien some time ago:
"Younger people are naturally insecure and tend to overplay their accomplishments. Most people don't become comfortable with who they are until they're in their 40's. By that time they can underplay their achievements and become a nicer more likeable person. Try to get to that point as soon as you can." :)
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Paired down some CVS at $63. ~18% total return in about 6 months... still think its got some upside, but looking to raise some cash. Just another example of a super obvious, not going anywhere/will be around forever, blue chip with an above average yield and single digit pe....right there for the taking.. but yea, the markets overvalued...
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I wish puts were cheaper, but with a VIX if 19, puts are a no- go for me, so I raise some cash instead. I do share the aforementioned concerns.
Are you buying puts with the VIX around 16?
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Gregmal is the smart guy here: buys cheap, quality stocks that he could hold on for a long time if they continue to drop and sells them for a nice profit (20-30%) if they rebound. Then rinse and repeat.
Seems to be the way to make money in this environment.
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Gregmal is the smart guy here: buys cheap, quality stocks that he could hold on for a long time if they continue to drop and sells them for a nice profit (20-30%) if they rebound. Then rinse and repeat.
Seems to be the way to make money in this environment.
Its the only way.
3 guys.
Average income in US in something like $70K a year.
Each are miraculously thrifty and save like there is no tomorrow. Each save $20,000 a year.
Guy 1 is a pussy and just puts it in a savings account yielding 0.1%. After 20 years he has ~$425K and as a result, has to continue slaving away because he can't afford to retire.
Guy 2 is also a pussy, but a little more adventurous. He buys bonds yielding ~2.5%. After 20 years he has ~$550k and shares the same fate as guy 1.
Guy 3 is a savvy investor and aware that cash is trash and bonds are the equivalent of picking up pennies in front of a freight train. He invests in quality companies and averages 10% a year. After 20 years he has ~$1.4M, is retired, spends half his time in Florida, and owns the business that employs guys 1 and 2....
Owning quality assets(even on margin) has time and again been a wise decision. Keep it simple. Figure out how to value businesses, and let time take care of itself. They should teach this is high school rather than home ec and wood shop...
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I wish puts were cheaper, but with a VIX if 19, puts are a no- go for me, so I raise some cash instead. I do share the aforementioned concerns.
Are you buying puts with the VIX around 16?
No, I have not yet done any put buying. I’d like to see premiums coming down more and look for a VIX around 13. I haven’t made a decision if I follow through at all this time, I have been trimming positions , especially in anything that is cyclical.
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Trimmed 25% of ENDP position started last Friday
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Sold my remaining $BREW Sept 20 $12.5 and $10 puts.
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Sold me last batch of FB shares ( yesterday )
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Sold my BRK today for a nice quick 3.5% gain. Buy BRK under $200 and sell for a small gain has worked well for me a few times this year. I tend to buy a large amount (10 to 20% position) so am happy to book a small gain. Back to cash and wait for the next shitstorm. The economic news continues to slowly deteriorate.
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Sold covered calls on KIM.
Thanks
Lance
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Sold some WBA and SPB
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BNTGY, RYCEY, MOG-A, trimmed some FOX and CMCSA
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Sold my BRK today for a nice quick 3.5% gain. Buy BRK under $200 and sell for a small gain has worked well for me a few times this year. I tend to buy a large amount (10 to 20% position) so am happy to book a small gain. Back to cash and wait for the next shitstorm. The economic news continues to slowly deteriorate.
Some days I envy your tax situation on trading, Viking,
explained by you - for your part - earlier here on CoBF. [ : - ) ]
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Move next door to Belgium. No capital gain tax.
Cardboard
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Move next door to Belgium. No capital gain tax.
Cardboard
It's true. I discussed it years ago with wachtwoord here on CoBF. To me, it's not going to happen as long as my father is still around. [My father is the last person still alive in the generation "above" the Lady of the House and I.] The time will come, eventually, after all the stuff related to settling my father's estate is done and cleared., to study the overall situation.
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Trimmed ENDP, TEVA
EDIT: closed all ENDP, didn't like the price action/reversal.
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Sold NUVR ( concerns over negative comps next quarter ) and GRIF ( quick trade, bought at ~$34 a couple of days ago ). This is my second round trip with GRIF.
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More WBA
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More WBA
What are your thoughts on exiting WBA?
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Sold NUVR ( concerns over negative comps next quarter ) and GRIF ( quick trade, bought at ~$34 a couple of days ago ). This is my second round trip with GRIF.
Edit: Also sold MSG (fear the Sphere)
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More WBA
What are your thoughts on exiting WBA?
Other opportunities I find more attractive, plus the thesis has stifted since I invested. I was attracted to a 10 pct FCF yield plus growth, but it has turned somewhat into a restructuring. They call it The Transformational Cost Management Program which gives me goosebumps. I think it'll work out okay, and that long term scripts growth will give them plenty to do, but I like the risk/reward better elsewhere.
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Sold GTS today for a quick small gain.
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Sold my NFLX puts for a 30% gain in 3 days!
Thank you Gregmal or genius of CoBF!
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Sold my NFLX puts for a 30% gain in 3 days!
Thank you Gregmal or genius of CoBF!
Glad you made money my man, took half off the NFLX short as I do agree short term this might have played out. Longer term its still in trouble IMO. Rolled the proceeds into a small OPK short. This one is terminally ill and there is little that can save it.
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Thanks Gregmal! These were Jan 2020 so I have learned not to be too greedy with short term expiries. Although, I may have been too early to jump the gun as this shows no support, nor accumulation yet.
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Thanks Gregmal! These were Jan 2020 so I have learned not to be too greedy with short term expiries. Although, I may have been too early to jump the gun as this shows no support, nor accumulation yet.
Timing is everything(see today). If you're going to trade, rule number one is never give up a profit. Rule number two, if you make money too quickly, take it off the table before you become the victim of mean reversion.
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Sold the last of my FNMA common
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Sold $MLR about a week ago at 33.5 a share. Couldn't pass up the 10% profit in a few weeks.
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Sold my SPY puts.
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TOO, -25%
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Sold out of my fannie mae preferreds, FNMAJ. There is still upside but with US politics playing such a huge role and sitting on a 65% gain, I just decided to take it.
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Got my 50c in a few weeks out of JOE, so back into GRIF. Also sold 80% of my MPC from May
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Shorted TSLA
Thanks
Lance
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Sold my smallish SMTA Position for a marginal game, after disappointing liquidation guidance (or do I read this wrong?).
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ESGR
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MPLX NOV 27 puts.
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covered a portion of the NFLX short from yesterday
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Sold some KTB.
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Sold some KTB.
Congrats to this trade!
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Sold REZI after the earnings report. I had reduced my position before the CC, but sold out after. While they made the revenue and earnings number, it was a very low quality report. Gross margin does and the pro forma # excludes the indemnity payment to HON (capped at $140M/ year). This payment is represented on the balance sheet as a $580M liability , but I think it will cost more. Anyway, thy have about $1.1B in debt (costing ~$70M in interest) and don’t seem to be able to generate any FCF currently. I misjudged this, it’s another crappo spinoff (GTX is a sinking ship also), so I take my 15% loss and move on.
KTB is doing better than I thought, also the earnings report is nothing to write home about either.
Ouch! Another guide down. I don’t own this crappola spin-off any more. Pre market trades around $9.5:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/resideo-announces-selected-preliminary-third-212500494.html (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/resideo-announces-selected-preliminary-third-212500494.html)
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Sold REZI after the earnings report. I had reduced my position before the CC, but sold out after. While they made the revenue and earnings number, it was a very low quality report. Gross margin does and the pro forma # excludes the indemnity payment to HON (capped at $140M/ year). This payment is represented on the balance sheet as a $580M liability , but I think it will cost more. Anyway, thy have about $1.1B in debt (costing ~$70M in interest) and don’t seem to be able to generate any FCF currently. I misjudged this, it’s another crappo spinoff (GTX is a sinking ship also), so I take my 15% loss and move on.
KTB is doing better than I thought, also the earnings report is nothing to write home about either.
Ouch! Another guide down. I don’t own this crappola spin-off any more. Pre market trades around $9.5:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/resideo-announces-selected-preliminary-third-212500494.html (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/resideo-announces-selected-preliminary-third-212500494.html)
I am not as familiar with REZI, but my conclusion on GTX was that it is a solid, if somewhat cyclical, business weighed down by excessive debt and asbestos liabilities.
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Sold REZI after the earnings report. I had reduced my position before the CC, but sold out after. While they made the revenue and earnings number, it was a very low quality report. Gross margin does and the pro forma # excludes the indemnity payment to HON (capped at $140M/ year). This payment is represented on the balance sheet as a $580M liability , but I think it will cost more. Anyway, thy have about $1.1B in debt (costing ~$70M in interest) and don’t seem to be able to generate any FCF currently. I misjudged this, it’s another crappo spinoff (GTX is a sinking ship also), so I take my 15% loss and move on.
KTB is doing better than I thought, also the earnings report is nothing to write home about either.
Ouch! Another guide down. I don’t own this crappola spin-off any more. Pre market trades around $9.5:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/resideo-announces-selected-preliminary-third-212500494.html (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/resideo-announces-selected-preliminary-third-212500494.html)
I am not as familiar with REZI, but my conclusion on GTX was that it is a solid, if somewhat cyclical, business weighed down by excessive debt and asbestos liabilities.
GTX is interesting due to high margins, a flexible cost structure as well as high leverage (and capped asbestos liability that can be deferred in crisis ), but diesel is a major headwind and not sure they can make up for that with gas. Anyway, whenever I get tempted, I look at Linamar and figure it's cheaper, better in the long run and with a lot more optionality.
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Sold REZI after the earnings report. I had reduced my position before the CC, but sold out after. While they made the revenue and earnings number, it was a very low quality report. Gross margin does and the pro forma # excludes the indemnity payment to HON (capped at $140M/ year). This payment is represented on the balance sheet as a $580M liability , but I think it will cost more. Anyway, thy have about $1.1B in debt (costing ~$70M in interest) and don’t seem to be able to generate any FCF currently. I misjudged this, it’s another crappo spinoff (GTX is a sinking ship also), so I take my 15% loss and move on.
KTB is doing better than I thought, also the earnings report is nothing to write home about either.
Ouch! Another guide down. I don’t own this crappola spin-off any more. Pre market trades around $9.5:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/resideo-announces-selected-preliminary-third-212500494.html (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/resideo-announces-selected-preliminary-third-212500494.html)
I am not as familiar with REZI, but my conclusion on GTX was that it is a solid, if somewhat cyclical, business weighed down by excessive debt and asbestos liabilities.
GTX is interesting due to high margins, a flexible cost structure as well as high leverage (and capped asbestos liability that can be deferred in crisis ), but diesel is a major headwind and not sure they can make up for that with gas. Anyway, whenever I get tempted, I look at Linamar and figure it's cheaper, better in the long run and with a lot more optionality.
I agree on GTX. My main concern is that GTX turbocharger business will go away entirely with electrification. A supplier like Linamar can replace lost business, but GTX cannot, and even if they could the margins of any new business would most likely be lower than what they currently earn.
REZI issue is margin pressure - I think they are getting commoditized. I will keep it on my watch list, but I don’t think I am likely to touch it.
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Closing PTON puts
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Reduced position a bit in NOVO B.CPH [NVO][in my father's account], to buy BRK.B, combined with pulling money off the table [money, that will never end up on the table again, but that will be allocated to one of his "high interest rate" accounts at Bank Norwegian ASA or Santander Consumer Bank ASA - those accounts are not part of my defined AUM]....
Pulled out all available cash in my fathers account again today.
Sold a bit less than one third of my fathers position in SAN today [at a loss]. It appears the account won't stay under the set goal/max. exposure, set now more than 5 years ago. I will drag out the cash [for good], when it's available after two days, if things don't fall back again. ...
Sold a bit more SAN today.
Sold a bit more SAN today.
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exited MPC
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Trimmed GM, CRSP, GRIF. Still holding positions but looking to continue tapering down the margin balance into next year.
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Sold my NOW trading shares.
Is it just me - I think the new CEO Bill McDermott with his tinted glasses and bling watch looks more like a strip club owner than a CEO.
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Reduced position a bit in NOVO B.CPH [NVO][in my father's account], to buy BRK.B, combined with pulling money off the table [money, that will never end up on the table again, but that will be allocated to one of his "high interest rate" accounts at Bank Norwegian ASA or Santander Consumer Bank ASA - those accounts are not part of my defined AUM]....
Pulled out all available cash in my fathers account again today.
Sold a bit less than one third of my fathers position in SAN today [at a loss]. It appears the account won't stay under the set goal/max. exposure, set now more than 5 years ago. I will drag out the cash [for good], when it's available after two days, if things don't fall back again. ...
Sold a bit more SAN today.
Sold a bit more SAN today.
Sold a bit more SAN today.
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Sold my over the weekend BRK trade position. Earnings were not as hoped for, but as expected. As they say though, good things happen when you go to the front of the net, ~$4 per share in 5 hours...
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Reduced position a bit in NOVO B.CPH [NVO][in my father's account], to buy BRK.B, combined with pulling money off the table [money, that will never end up on the table again, but that will be allocated to one of his "high interest rate" accounts at Bank Norwegian ASA or Santander Consumer Bank ASA - those accounts are not part of my defined AUM]....
Pulled out all available cash in my fathers account again today.
Sold a bit less than one third of my fathers position in SAN today [at a loss]. It appears the account won't stay under the set goal/max. exposure, set now more than 5 years ago. I will drag out the cash [for good], when it's available after two days, if things don't fall back again. ...
Sold a bit more SAN today.
Sold a bit more SAN today.
Sold a bit more SAN today.
Sold a bit more SAN today.
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Sold a bit of NZYM B.CPH today.
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Sold the half of my PBF shares that were in my ROTH IRA account (no taxes due!). I started buying in the mid 20s, and followed it down. It's up 50% in the past few months from the bottom tick buy my average cost was above that so I'm up 32% on that one. Still holding the other half in my taxable account till the full year is up so that I can get the long term capital gains tax rate if I decide to sell. .
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1/3 CABO position. Just valuation.
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Sold a bit of :
VOW.DE [Volkswagen AG ST ON] &
DAI.DE [Daimler AG NA ON]
today.
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1/3 CABO position. Just valuation.
Brilliant🙄
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1/3 CABO position. Just valuation.
Brilliant🙄
Enjoy the 2/3!
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Trimmed a little more CRSP, and MSGN
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selling some DIS
EDIT: closed rest of DIS at $149. Will leave all the mumbo jumbo bs and 2023 projections to others to figure out....happy with $131 to here in 3 weeks.
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sold the RH I bought yesterday after hours for a few bucks
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Sold down some BX and BAM
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Sold 15% of my $AMD position to free up some cash.
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Sold part of my SDI today. Stock popped due to proposed merger with the 50.1% sub TPB. I wish I could have accumulated more SDI, but I take what I get.
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CVS for a 12%ish gain in a non-taxable account (chalk one up for luck?)
Too much political risk (real & of the jawboning type)
+ a possible write down on the Aetna purchase
= this could drop significantly again
---
I'm holding cash for something that looks obvious.
Thanks for the time spent by fellow members in helping me understand this & other businesses.
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Been selling/trimming BX, CRSP, EDIT, LAACZ, NVTA, VITR.SE
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Been selling/trimming BX, CRSP, EDIT, LAACZ, NVTA, VITR.SE
Sold some FOX, just in case we get another round trip to $30.
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Been selling/trimming BX, CRSP, EDIT, LAACZ, NVTA, VITR.SE
Sold some FOX, just in case we get another round trip to $30.
Ill be there for that. FOX is on the watch list for sure.
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Does anyone know who pays for those "listed on NYSE/Nasdaq" commercials that run on CNBC and Fox Bidness? Do the exchanges pay for that or the companies or is it a split?
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Sold some Apple today. Just to take some profits and raise some cash to hold. I sold about 20% of my AAPL shares (cost basis in the $90s).
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JEF. Attaining returns from this thing has been like extracting blood from a stone. As such, I'm happily taking my one week returns here and calling it a day.
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JEF. Attaining returns from this thing has been like extracting blood from a stone. As such, I'm happily taking my one week returns here and calling it a day.
haha, I bought a lot in June*, and am reducing today as well. I don't think I'll ever love SPB so I got rid of that and sold my remaining JEF down to a still big position, but no longer supersized (from ~14%--->10% ish)
any JEF shareholder of recent years has learned to fade the hard rallies given the stock likes to randomly go down 30%+ whenever the market so much as sneezes, so when you make 25% in a few months and get distributed a little bit of your cost in SPB, you do the same.
*proof! https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/luk-leucadia/msg373322/#msg373322
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Sold more $SDI today.
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Sold out of XRO AU, Valuation got a bit nutty at 17 times revenues.
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Selling some EDIT
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Closed out the bulk of my genetics basket trade; down to about 2% position and only 4 names left. Trimmed some CLF. Had to bite my fingers off to refrain from restarting a Peloton short as well, reminding myself that at this moment, its still just a valuation short with no catalyst.
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Sold OLN 16.5 puts expiring next week.
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BEP.un, on valuation concern.
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BRX
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Exited BLUE trade from Friday and trimmed a bit more CLF
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Sold small PLCE position from yesterday. Not looking to make anything retail a core position, so Ill just take 6% in 24 hours and call it a day.
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Sold half of ADM.L and wrote puts on GEO.
Thanks
Lance
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PACB, HHC, 700.hk
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Also sold my small position in HHC today. I also reduced my CUERVO.MX by 15% after a good run.
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sold a little TPL at 765 into the closing spike
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Reduced positions in GOOG, FOX and CTVA today.
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Exited all but a few remaining shares of TPL. Love the company, but high 500s to almost $800 in a couple months works for me. Agree its probably wise to lighten up GOOG too, but I am incapable of selling it. Same goes for MSG.
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Exited all but a few remaining shares of TPL. Love the company, but high 500s to almost $800 in a couple months works for me. Agree its probably wise to lighten up GOOG too, but I am incapable of selling it. Same goes for MSG.
GOOG is a whole lot closer to FV than where I bought it ((~$1050 blended). I sort of try to reduce positions when they approach fair value, although with GOOG, it’s a tough call.
CTVA is my 3rd round trip this far.
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Exited all but a few remaining shares of TPL. Love the company, but high 500s to almost $800 in a couple months works for me. Agree its probably wise to lighten up GOOG too, but I am incapable of selling it. Same goes for MSG.
GOOG is a whole lot closer to FV than where I bought it ((~$1050 blended). I sort of try to reduce positions when they approach fair value, although with GOOG, it’s a tough call.
CTVA is my 3rd round trip this far.
Yea IDK. I just dont think you can really ever get a "fair" value on something like that. Its one of the largest companies in the world, and covered by everyone. IMO on a relative basis its probably pretty efficient in terms of how its priced. So you dont ever really have an edge. I remember David Winters saying it reached fair value and selling(a guy with like 2% portfolio turnover) at like $1030, a few years ago. Now its $1350. To me, or at least what I tell myself, if that its an irreplaceable business, that should do better than the market on the way up, and hold up better on the way down. As long as it trades at a price I can cross a few bridges to rationalize, I dont ever see myself selling it. Just buying the dips. One of the few securities in my portfolio I have in that category.
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Sold remaining AMD stake $47. Cost basis of $11. This run up has been insane.
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Sold 90% of Lancashire and wrote puts on TPR.
Thanks
Lance
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Sold the rest of ADM.L
Thanks
Lance
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Added to NFLX puts, shorted some WING, and put back on a small bit of BYND short.
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Sold remaining AMD stake $47. Cost basis of $11. This run up has been insane.
Great decision buying AMD.
It continues to surprise me how some (only a few) companies can re-invent themselves. My son (who is in grade 12) alerted me about 2 years ago to what was going on at AMD; he and his buddies are into technology and he explained to me that AMD was a company on the rise. Alas, i was too busy thumb sucking to do anything about it. I use it as an example with him to how small investors can do well if they do what Peter Lynch advises: take advantage of what you see in your circle of competence.
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Sold remaining AMD stake $47. Cost basis of $11. This run up has been insane.
Great decision buying AMD.
It continues to surprise me how some (only a few) companies can re-invent themselves. My son (who is in grade 12) alerted me about 2 years ago to what was going on at AMD; he and his buddies are into technology and he explained to me that AMD was a company on the rise. Alas, i was too busy thumb sucking to do anything about it. I use it as an example with him to how small investors can do well if they do what Peter Lynch advises: take advantage of what you see in your circle of competence.
I was quite torn about selling it since my cost basis was so low. I like the management team and what they’re doing. I think they have been executing very well. Solid products, good growth in multiple segments and a really solid pipeline. But the valuation has gone bananas. 200+x earnings is too rich for me. But I’m definitely looking for another entry point. It’s hard to say whether this will trade at a fair value anytime soon.
Thanks
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Sold remaining AMD stake $47. Cost basis of $11. This run up has been insane.
Great decision buying AMD.
It continues to surprise me how some (only a few) companies can re-invent themselves. My son (who is in grade 12) alerted me about 2 years ago to what was going on at AMD; he and his buddies are into technology and he explained to me that AMD was a company on the rise. Alas, i was too busy thumb sucking to do anything about it. I use it as an example with him to how small investors can do well if they do what Peter Lynch advises: take advantage of what you see in your circle of competence.
I would argue you are not totally in the wrong here. AMD has over multiple times threatened to seriously compete with Intel in the chip space. 75% of the time they fall flat on their face. I think unless you are a chipset or cpu engineer and you have specific knowledge, or they are trading at silly valuations... then it's a bit of a crapshoot.
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Sold remaining AMD stake $47. Cost basis of $11. This run up has been insane.
Great decision buying AMD.
It continues to surprise me how some (only a few) companies can re-invent themselves. My son (who is in grade 12) alerted me about 2 years ago to what was going on at AMD; he and his buddies are into technology and he explained to me that AMD was a company on the rise. Alas, i was too busy thumb sucking to do anything about it. I use it as an example with him to how small investors can do well if they do what Peter Lynch advises: take advantage of what you see in your circle of competence.
I was quite torn about selling it since my cost basis was so low. I like the management team and what they’re doing. I think they have been executing very well. Solid products, good growth in multiple segments and a really solid pipeline. But the valuation has gone bananas. 200+x earnings is too rich for me. But I’m definitely looking for another entry point. It’s hard to say whether this will trade at a fair value anytime soon.
Thanks
So, if you are concerned about taxes, why didn’t you wait a couple more days until next year and then sell? This would push out paying taxes another year.
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Sold remaining AMD stake $47. Cost basis of $11. This run up has been insane.
Great decision buying AMD.
It continues to surprise me how some (only a few) companies can re-invent themselves. My son (who is in grade 12) alerted me about 2 years ago to what was going on at AMD; he and his buddies are into technology and he explained to me that AMD was a company on the rise. Alas, i was too busy thumb sucking to do anything about it. I use it as an example with him to how small investors can do well if they do what Peter Lynch advises: take advantage of what you see in your circle of competence.
I was quite torn about selling it since my cost basis was so low. I like the management team and what they’re doing. I think they have been executing very well. Solid products, good growth in multiple segments and a really solid pipeline. But the valuation has gone bananas. 200+x earnings is too rich for me. But I’m definitely looking for another entry point. It’s hard to say whether this will trade at a fair value anytime soon.
Thanks
So, if you are concerned about taxes, why didn’t you wait a couple more days until next year and then sell? This would push out paying taxes another year.
Is this correct? I think you may still need to pay estimated tax otherwise if your tax bill after withholdings at year end is too big, you may have to pay a penalty?
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Sold remaining AMD stake $47. Cost basis of $11. This run up has been insane.
Great decision buying AMD.
It continues to surprise me how some (only a few) companies can re-invent themselves. My son (who is in grade 12) alerted me about 2 years ago to what was going on at AMD; he and his buddies are into technology and he explained to me that AMD was a company on the rise. Alas, i was too busy thumb sucking to do anything about it. I use it as an example with him to how small investors can do well if they do what Peter Lynch advises: take advantage of what you see in your circle of competence.
I was quite torn about selling it since my cost basis was so low. I like the management team and what they’re doing. I think they have been executing very well. Solid products, good growth in multiple segments and a really solid pipeline. But the valuation has gone bananas. 200+x earnings is too rich for me. But I’m definitely looking for another entry point. It’s hard to say whether this will trade at a fair value anytime soon.
Thanks
Excellent trade. What made you choose to sell at 200x rather than say, 150x? I am just curious because one area I would like to improve on is with handling these "non circle of competence" buy sell decisions. I can look at a real estate company and say, Im selling at 5% discount to NAV; easy. But holding AMD from 10 to 47 or whatever obviously involved some sort of valuation work and discipline. And like I said, since the earnings multiple was never really all that traditionally obvious, I am curious your thought process; if you dont mind sharing.
Also, if you wanted to hang on or rebuy, in the future you can just utilize shorting long dated calls. If you wished to one day repurchase AMD at 30, just sell something like the January 2021 $30 call for $18-19. You get a little extra premium on your sale, are position neutral with no tax obligation yet, and if your bearishness is warranted you then just cover the call position into the decline effectively putting back on your long position- STILL with a long term basis.
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Sold remaining AMD stake $47. Cost basis of $11. This run up has been insane.
Great decision buying AMD.
It continues to surprise me how some (only a few) companies can re-invent themselves. My son (who is in grade 12) alerted me about 2 years ago to what was going on at AMD; he and his buddies are into technology and he explained to me that AMD was a company on the rise. Alas, i was too busy thumb sucking to do anything about it. I use it as an example with him to how small investors can do well if they do what Peter Lynch advises: take advantage of what you see in your circle of competence.
I was quite torn about selling it since my cost basis was so low. I like the management team and what they’re doing. I think they have been executing very well. Solid products, good growth in multiple segments and a really solid pipeline. But the valuation has gone bananas. 200+x earnings is too rich for me. But I’m definitely looking for another entry point. It’s hard to say whether this will trade at a fair value anytime soon.
Thanks
So, if you are concerned about taxes, why didn’t you wait a couple more days until next year and then sell? This would push out paying taxes another year.
Is this correct? I think you may still need to pay estimated tax otherwise if your tax bill after withholdings at year end is too big, you may have to pay a penalty?
From the IRS:
In general, taxpayers don’t have to pay a penalty if they meet any of these conditions:
*They owe less than $1,000 in tax with their tax return.
*Throughout the year, they paid the smaller of these two amounts:
**at least 90 percent of the tax for the current year
**100 percent of the tax shown on their return for the prior year – this can increase to 110 percent based on adjusted gross income
https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/the-basics-of-estimated-taxes-for-individuals
So like the name says, you kind of have to estimate. If you estimate you need to pay tax on a realized sale in Q1, you'd have to pay it by 4/15/2020.
Mike
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Sold remaining AMD stake $47. Cost basis of $11. This run up has been insane.
Great decision buying AMD.
It continues to surprise me how some (only a few) companies can re-invent themselves. My son (who is in grade 12) alerted me about 2 years ago to what was going on at AMD; he and his buddies are into technology and he explained to me that AMD was a company on the rise. Alas, i was too busy thumb sucking to do anything about it. I use it as an example with him to how small investors can do well if they do what Peter Lynch advises: take advantage of what you see in your circle of competence.
I was quite torn about selling it since my cost basis was so low. I like the management team and what they’re doing. I think they have been executing very well. Solid products, good growth in multiple segments and a really solid pipeline. But the valuation has gone bananas. 200+x earnings is too rich for me. But I’m definitely looking for another entry point. It’s hard to say whether this will trade at a fair value anytime soon.
Thanks
Excellent trade. What made you choose to sell at 200x rather than say, 150x? I am just curious because one area I would like to improve on is with handling these "non circle of competence" buy sell decisions. I can look at a real estate company and say, Im selling at 5% discount to NAV; easy. But holding AMD from 10 to 47 or whatever obviously involved some sort of valuation work and discipline. And like I said, since the earnings multiple was never really all that traditionally obvious, I am curious your thought process; if you dont mind sharing.
Also, if you wanted to hang on or rebuy, in the future you can just utilize shorting long dated calls. If you wished to one day repurchase AMD at 30, just sell something like the January 2021 $30 call for $18-19. You get a little extra premium on your sale, are position neutral with no tax obligation yet, and if your bearishness is warranted you then just cover the call position into the decline effectively putting back on your long position- STILL with a long term basis.
First and foremost I'm going to say that I view AMD as the "millennial stock that has merit". It's sexy/familiar enough that it's trendy, but the business and product lines/segments are of good enough quality to help people justify the outlandish valuation.
Leading up until April 2018 the P/E was hovering right around 50. This was obviously too high as it was overpriced on fundamentals. But the sentiment for AMD was really taking off since the launch of Ryzen and Threadripper in Feb/Mar 2017. Then you had the launch of EPYC in June of 2017. You can almost see the curious sentiment of this in the spread as it traded between high 9-12 range for 16 months. leading up to April 2018. I believe this was supported by the constant flow of new products and all that was keeping stock from going nuts was the enterprise side results.
Depending on results of Q1 2018, Q2 2018 earnings had almost a perfect setup. AMD had Computex 2018 in June and then Earnings end of July. Why would they go if they weren't going to reveal something positive/new? I bought in Dec 2017 (starter) and in April (large position) around 10 a share before the Q1 earnings April 25th. I was planning on selling my position before ER in July for a quick turnaround. But in May we had a HPE rep come pitch their new servers which were running the EPYC 7001 AMD chips. I talked to the lady after her sales pitch and asked how they were selling. Sure this is anecdotal, but she said they were selling relatively well. The chips seemed like they would be good money savers for enterprise companies without sacrificing performance to a significant degree. They were about 1/4 the cost of Intel's Xeon chips and claimed they would reduce VM cost by 50%. We also have a few HP engineers staffed at my site and I discussed this with them. They heard favorable opinions (no hands on experience personally) from coworkers.
So I took a bit of a gamble and held my position until Computex 2018 to see if AMD would release any news. They released a ton of positive news one month before earnings. HP was expanding their EPYC server line, Cisco was adopting EPYC, Tencent was using them for cloud. Call it a gut feeling but I felt Q2 2018 was going to be an inflection point.
- Solid product line
- Management was executing well
- Accelerated growth in multiple segments Q1, Q2 2018
- Positive results at Computex 2018
- Add in the overwhelming positive sentiment, fomo and the bandwagon investors
- Turn around story
- Inside my circle of competence
I sold roughly 1/6th of my total position after Q2 2018 earnings for 25/sh. The PE was nearing 100 at that point and I didn't feel comfortable with that. Ever since Q1 2018 I felt that a PE around 50 had relative support. Sure, it wasn't justified fundamentally but with all the things I listed above I felt that the market was curious enough to allow this ridiculous PE to exist.
We didn't see the full breadth of EPYC backed servers hit the markets until Q1 2018 from HP and Dell vendors. I figured this was going to take a few quarters to see results (this was reflected in Q2 with positive guidance). When we hit the slowdown in Oct 2018 there was quite the pullback. AMD announced HPE ProLiant DL325 Gen10 and Gen 2 EPYC processors. I figured this was a decent buy opportunity and the share price was seeing solid support around 50 P/E again. I bought a smaller position around 17 a share and brought my cost basis right around 11. Up until then, EPS had been increasing every Q starting in Dec 2017. Now we were starting to see a decline yet the P/E is running away to these ridiculous levels.
I simply was riding the sentiment following the Oct-Nov market dip. I'll be the first to admit I was really lucky with my cost basis and buy timing. This has been by far my most risky play/position. I still like the company and the management team at AMD. Their future product line seems intriguing as AMD will have products on the market that Intel cannot compete with due to time frame constraint. I think the sentiment is wearing off for AMD. Intel has been a sleeping giant and will certainly leverage their R&D in the future. The question now is how much market share can AMD capture? That is a much more difficult task than proving you can create competitive products. As LC said 75% of the time AMD falls short. I'll be looking to buy when they come back down to earth (pending market share gain).
I think we will see a large sell off after the 1st of the year for the very reason Spek stated above.
Also thanks for the advice on the idea of shorting long dated calls.
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What an awesome post Castanza, thanks. In relation to your trade, this has to be one of the best posts Ive ever read on this site and should really be a nice starting point/primer for anyone looking at the framework of the perfect investor. Take a fundamental understanding of a business, watch it play out, anticipate certain catalysts, holding through speculated momentum surges, and then flipping into the crescendo. Especially impressive allowing your understanding of the share price driver to trump your itch as a value guy to bail on a richly valued security. Value, momentum, and timing=$$$$$. Hard to fuse all 3 but when done, its a beautiful thing.
Well done.
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What an awesome post Castanza, thanks. In relation to your trade, this has to be one of the best posts Ive ever read on this site and should really be a nice starting point/primer for anyone looking at the framework of the perfect investor. Take a fundamental understanding of a business, watch it play out, anticipate certain catalysts, holding through speculated momentum surges, and then flipping into the crescendo. Especially impressive allowing your understanding of the share price driver to trump your itch as a value guy to bail on a richly valued security. Value, momentum, and timing=$$$$$. Hard to fuse all 3 but when done, its a beautiful thing.
Well done.
I second that.
(http://www.tunawish.com/images/castanza.gif)
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My sell order for my trading position in AYRSF was triggered at $9.30 today. I'm holding some as well, but this is the third time since the beginning of November that I've bought 1000 shares at $8.30 and sold them at $9.30. I'm doing this in my IRA at Fidelity so no trading fees and no taxes. I'll buy back another 1000 shares if it hits $8.30 yet again.
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Shorted some PLUG. Mainly because Ive got a bearish itch and many of the other candidates are impulsive and valuation based shorts. So, because Unilife is no longer with us, PLUG becomes the de facto, I just need to short some piece of shit eventual 0 outlet.
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... becomes the de facto, I just need to short some piece of shit eventual 0 outlet.
lol! - I like doughnuts too! [ : - D]
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Sold UNH, CVS, GS. They were mostly valuation plays
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Sold UNH, CVS, GS. They were mostly valuation plays
Sold 52 WFC puts expiring this Friday.
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Reduced GOOG and BAESY a bit.
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Reduced FOX and BAESY a bit more.
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1810.hk
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Reduced FOX and BAESY a bit more.
BAESY gone from my non-taxable accounts today.
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Added to short positions on PLUG, WING, and a little SPCE. The poo poo basket.
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Sold calls on TPR.
Thanks
Lance
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Trimmed IBM
Thanks
Lance
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Trimmed some more BX. These things are unstoppable right now it seems.
EDIT, sold a small sliver of my GOOG shares too. Felt dirty doing so...which may indicate an emotional attachment to them(not a good thing), but am almost certainly convinced that there will be points to rebuy them lower and since its paying down margin, a better safe than sorry decision.
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Sold all(but a minor tracking position) the remainder of my BX.
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$I
Sold 1/3rd of position to lock in some profits. 22% in a few days
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TCO
Thanks
Lance
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Trimmed some more BX. These things are unstoppable right now it seems.
EDIT, sold a small sliver of my GOOG shares too. Felt dirty doing so...which may indicate an emotional attachment to them(not a good thing), but am almost certainly convinced that there will be points to rebuy them lower and since its paying down margin, a better safe than sorry decision.
Sold my GOOG shares on 1/24. Have the same feeling that it will be available cheaper in the future. Currently sitting at 15-20% cash and all new money is going to cash for the time being.
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I sold part of my GOOG position. I switched the remainder from GOOG into GOOGL and gained ~4$/ share and voting rights. I noticed that the voting shares trade at a discount to non voting shares despite having pretty much the same liquidity. Strange.
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shorted some 867.hk at the open
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sold last of my nvta. thanks akram
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Sold CRNC, up 44% in a couple months. Seems like there is more baked in now.
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Sold remaining position (minus a few cheap Calls) in $I a few days ago for a small profit. It doesn't look like the FCC is going to get anywhere near estimated value (Intelsat's estimates) with their offers.
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Started small NVTA short after hours. Added to PLUG short AH as well.
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Started small NVTA short after hours. Added to PLUG short AH as well.
Shorting momentum trash is a good way to get over by a dump truck lately.
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Started small NVTA short after hours. Added to PLUG short AH as well.
Shorting momentum trash is a good way to get over by a dump truck lately.
Yea PLUG has driven a large one up my a$$ past few months, but its still a terminal short. NVTA Ive got a pretty good handle on the story part. Their JPM Conference pump job has become predictable(why all the smart guy short pitches were awfully timed) as has the rally to earnings. From here though, they'll have to do better than losing $1.20 for every $1 in revenue. I dont think they do.
Always size these small should be the requisite disclaimer.
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Fairfax. It has been remarkably resilient the past 2 days as the market has sold off. I wonder if FFH is buying :-) Opportunity for me to lock in some nice gains and have lots of cash to redeploy should we see the stock market continue to sell off.
I continue to like the insurance side of the Fairfax; it looks like they are in a hard market. However, bond yields are down significantly and could stay down which will decrease interest income as the year progresses. And their stock portfolio is taking a big hit; Their two big holdings, Seaspan and Eurobank, are down big time since Jan 1. My guess is equity markets will stay weak for Q1.
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AMA.AX announced horrible results today. Out at a 30% loss today after just a couple of days. Ouch, there goes the compounder. fortunately this was a small position, as I wanted to wait to buy more until they release results. This one is in the penalty box.
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Sold VIIX and VIXY. Trimmed TLT.
Thanks
Lance
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Classic sucker rally. Sold a little GOOG, CIBR
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Was parking some money in the MLNX merger arb. Sold yesterday and putting some to work yesterday and today.
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Sold most of my SDI.
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Sold 20% of my SPCE puts locking in 67% gain.
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Sold too many to mention, including stuff that I just bought recently. Went into a sales frenzy during lunch time when we had an inter day bounce. I also sold my beloved BRKB, except on my taxable account. Amazing to see the SPY just 7% below the peak with all that stuff going on.
That said, my timing typically sucks.
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Sold too many to mention, including stuff that I just bought recently. Went into a sales frenzy during lunch time when we had an inter day bounce. I also sold my beloved BRKB, except on my taxable account. Amazing to see the SPY just 7% below the peak with all that stuff going on.
That said, my timing typically sucks.
Sold my sellable positions, kept the iliquid ones (which I think might be more or less imune to coronavirus)... my timing has been terrible in the last few months, with many of the sells being on the absolute Bottom. As such, maybe this crash has already ended...
Edit: the liquidity dried up on those iliquid stocks, so maybe their immnunity is just me reassuring myself :)
Edit2: on timing, ALL my sells in the last few months are still ABOVE my selling price... humpf...
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Sold too many to mention, including stuff that I just bought recently. Went into a sales frenzy during lunch time when we had an inter day bounce. I also sold my beloved BRKB, except on my taxable account. Amazing to see the SPY just 7% below the peak with all that stuff going on.
That said, my timing typically sucks.
I will give you some props. Your reasoning in a thread not long ago(maybe a few months) actually helped me quite a bit with the decision to part ways with some GOOG and a few other holdings not too long ago. Stuff originally stubborn me convinced myself were never sell items because gee buy and hold is where the real compounding/returns are!
Your timing was pretty friggin good on DD sale too...
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I sold some safety today, the last portion of TLT.
There is still upside (perhaps a lot) but the range of (unconventional) outcomes is just too large. Of course, Mr. Buffett is right and the term premium has been negative for some time which is moronic and stocks in 30 years or something will do better than bonds. But people may suggest that there is no floor and non-linear changes are possible.
I had hoped to redeploy funds at such time but this feels like when losing altitude in a specific circumstance. At a certain point, you need to jump and then the handle must be pulled in order to speed decouple, ascertain the perspective and adjust your landing spot.
I hope to never meet again circumstances indicating that investing in long term risk-free bonds would make sense.
FWIW, it’s not the virus that triggered the final decision, it’s the poor mechanical and fundamental construct of the rocket.
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VIIX closed long position.
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Selling off VTEB I have in taxable accounts for dry powder.
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BRK; decided to lock in my still small gain of 1.5% for 2020 (total portfolio) and move to cash. Too many unkowns that are important inputs to investment decisions (like that will US GDP, corporate profits etc be in 2020?). Will know much more in the next month :-)
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NESN
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HireQuest
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Sold some PM puts in the morning and bought them back in the early afternoon.
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Sold OOM Berkshire calls.
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Sold 50% of remaining SPCE puts to free up some more cash
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Sold a few WING puts(to close)
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KAR had a nice bounce and position is gone (small loss).
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Sold about 1/2 of my positions today just before the close (that i bought just yesterday). What an amazing bounce the last 20 minutes of trading today. The President certainly timed the presser today perfectly.
It was very encouraging to hear what the plans are. Let’s see what the reality is next week.
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Sold all my positions except one BIG short position.
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Wrote GM 21-strike, March 23 expiration calls for $0.21 per share.
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Sold my TRV into the late surge yesterday - trade was flat. Sold WAB at smallish loss.
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Sold GILD (done care about vaccine speculation)
Like to take the proceed to add to my AMZN or BRK or DIS or UTX or GOOG but cannot decide
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Exited UPS at 101
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Exited UPS at 101
Trading like a devil on steroids is the only thing that works now. BJ is up like almost 50% and their financials don’t even look that great. However, I don’t think they have to worry about renewals of their store leases all that much.
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HireQuest
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Sold GILD (done care about vaccine speculation)
Like to take the proceed to add to my AMZN or BRK or DIS or UTX or GOOG but cannot decide
Buy them all?
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Exited UPS at 101
Trading like a devil on steroids is the only thing that works now. BJ is up like almost 50% and their financials don’t even look that great. However, I don’t think they have to worry about renewals of their store leases all that much.
Crazy times call for crazy measures :P
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Sold COST. Will redeploy into names that are down way more.
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Sold COST. Will redeploy into names that are down way more.
Sold rest of mine too. I was sad.
Anecdotally - I shopped there yesterday (Nor Cal) and it was eerily empty.
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Sold COST. Will redeploy into names that are down way more.
Sold rest of mine too. I was sad.
Anecdotally - I shopped there yesterday (Nor Cal) and it was eerily empty.
Yeah. But a few months ago 1 COST would get you 2 DIS shares. Now it's more like 4. I'm hoping to rotate back into it later, but when it's barely down and there's tons of stuff down 50% it's hard to keep it.
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hey all:
I had a little bit of luck today!
Yesterday, I bought some shares of an up & coming small cap company called "Guess Jeans" (NYSE: GES) just before the market closed for about $3.80/share.
TODAY, I sold some covered calls (SEPT 12's for about $3.75/contract).
So I almost covered my cost basis, close, but not quite. I also had to pay a small commission on the options.
I think the poker term for this is "free rolling"?
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I bought a little DIS yesterday for $80 & sold today for $94.
Kept a bit & added it to what I already owned.
Would like to do this again.
Trading around other stuff with an eye towards adding on the cheap as well.
BRK, DIS, EW, NVO, PSX, ULTA, VDE
Let's hear it for stinker bids
and volatility.
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Bought DIS @ 85.02 yesterday and sold today for 95.40
Bought MCD for 125.00 yesterday and sold today for 147.30.
I don’t usually trade much, but couldn’t pass up the one day gain and wanted to keep more dry powder for the next leg down. I did not think the buy orders would be filled yesterday and put in similar, but lower orders in after selling.
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Exited RTN at 130. Have been buying pretty sizable positions the past few days from 117-108. Wasn't expecting this bounce back so quickly.
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Back to 100% cash. Sold everything i bought yesterday for a 6.5% average gain in 24 hours. I am lucky as all of my investments are in accounts where gains are tax free (I pay taxes when i withdraw the funds). This greatly simplifies the investment decision (to not have to think about taxes). This volatility is crazy.
Soon (next 7-14 days) we will start to see the health and economic damage in North America. Could be ugly. Happy to sit in the weeds and see what Mr Market serves up moving forward...
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Any good short candidates out there? I saw alwaysDrawing's post and it reminded me that this is a good day to put on a hedge.
One candidate I am looking at is AAPL. How in the hell are people going to buy their products if they can't even pay rent? This is a consumer discretionary company in my mind, it shouldn't be selling at 20x earnings. Yes they have cash or tangible book but it is around 1/10 of current market cap. I remember in GFC they sold below their net asset value (not saying that will be repeated but throwing it out for comparison).
AAPL is 100% a bet on Corona virus blowing up the economy, I do not expect this to pan out otherwise. I am also almost fully invested so more a hedge against my gut that things will be okay. I am buying relatively short duration puts (June 2020 maturity) that are deep out of the money. If things really go to hell and apple get cut in half they could do 10-15x.
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I sold the MKL purchased on March 18th for a 13% gain. Pretty sure I will get another shot at MKL at an even lower price.
I don’t see this party lasting very long when all the non stimulus news is negative.
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It's kind of amusing to see how markets like these trigger many people's desires to speculate.
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Any good short candidates out there? I saw alwaysDrawing's post and it reminded me that this is a good day to put on a hedge.
One candidate I am looking at is AAPL. How in the hell are people going to buy their products if they can't even pay rent? This is a consumer discretionary company in my mind, it shouldn't be selling at 20x earnings. Yes they have cash or tangible book but it is around 1/10 of current market cap. I remember in GFC they sold below their net asset value (not saying that will be repeated but throwing it out for comparison).
AAPL is 100% a bet on Corona virus blowing up the economy, I do not expect this to pan out otherwise. I am also almost fully invested so more a hedge against my gut that things will be okay. I am buying relatively short duration puts (June 2020 maturity) that are deep out of the money. If things really go to hell and apple get cut in half they could do 10-15x.
Ferrari at 40x P/FCF and Kinsale Capital (Insurance company at 6x BV) Not my original idea, but it just looks pricey. Ferrari factory is also shut down for at least 2 weeks.
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Any good short candidates out there? I saw alwaysDrawing's post and it reminded me that this is a good day to put on a hedge.
One candidate I am looking at is AAPL. How in the hell are people going to buy their products if they can't even pay rent? This is a consumer discretionary company in my mind, it shouldn't be selling at 20x earnings. Yes they have cash or tangible book but it is around 1/10 of current market cap. I remember in GFC they sold below their net asset value (not saying that will be repeated but throwing it out for comparison).
AAPL is 100% a bet on Corona virus blowing up the economy, I do not expect this to pan out otherwise. I am also almost fully invested so more a hedge against my gut that things will be okay. I am buying relatively short duration puts (June 2020 maturity) that are deep out of the money. If things really go to hell and apple get cut in half they could do 10-15x.
Ferrari at 40x P/FCF and Kinsale Capital (Insurance company at 6x BV) Not my original idea, but it just looks pricey. Ferrari factory is also shut down for at least 2 weeks.
Also million $ collector cars may be less important when folks are short on cash.
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Just my 2c, but arent there easier targets here than a premium company that targets the ultra rich? It can/could work, but Ferrari is a great company, with a huge moat, and product with insatiable demand. Id gander Ford is a better short than Ferrari. I mean we just saw Ballmer pay $400M for a stadium-yesterday! Its possibly a one off. But its also not farfetched wealthy folks will continue to be better off than average folks. Why get cute going after a world class business when you can go after turds? Even if you hit, you still have to nail the landing trading wise, because like other best of breed companies, these do bottom and rebound hard.
Disclosure, I shorted some F today.
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Any good short candidates out there? I saw alwaysDrawing's post and it reminded me that this is a good day to put on a hedge.
One candidate I am looking at is AAPL. How in the hell are people going to buy their products if they can't even pay rent? This is a consumer discretionary company in my mind, it shouldn't be selling at 20x earnings. Yes they have cash or tangible book but it is around 1/10 of current market cap. I remember in GFC they sold below their net asset value (not saying that will be repeated but throwing it out for comparison).
AAPL is 100% a bet on Corona virus blowing up the economy, I do not expect this to pan out otherwise. I am also almost fully invested so more a hedge against my gut that things will be okay. I am buying relatively short duration puts (June 2020 maturity) that are deep out of the money. If things really go to hell and apple get cut in half they could do 10-15x.
Ferrari at 40x P/FCF and Kinsale Capital (Insurance company at 6x BV) Not my original idea, but it just looks pricey. Ferrari factory is also shut down for at least 2 weeks.
Also million $ collector cars may be less important when folks are short on cash.
Probably not for the 8k or so folks who buy the cars a year. Ferrari did just fine in 2008 and they'll probably do just fine now.
We can debate whether 40x is the right multiple (I'll bnot defend it), but I have zero concerns about the business.
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ZBH
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ZBH
Well done! That looks like a 33% return over 8 days.
I just saw that ZBH traded at present levels in 2014. Then, they say markets are efficient.
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Sold 50% INMD will let the rest ride.
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ZBH
Well done! That looks like a 33% return over 8 days.
I just saw that ZBH traded at present levels in 2014. Then, they say markets are efficient.
Thanks I wish I got more. I caught a good bid for like 5 seconds. It closed up like 8% from my fill price on that day and it was a crappy day.
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I trimmed my positions substantially. Too many to mention. I am basically making a call this rally won’t last. I also shorted some SPY at the close for a short term trade.
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Same here, I trimmed most of my positions over the course of this week.
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I don’t have a position , but I would need to swallow crazy pills before pushing the buy button for $CVNA at $81.5
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I don’t have a position , but I would need to swallow crazy pills before pushing the buy button for $CVNA at $81.5
Indeed, but this is what happens when people begin revolving their investment decisions around "IM STAYIN HOME 4 GOOD!". I mean look at even what some folks here are saying... NFLX, CVNA, TDOC, NVAX, all you need to outperform for the next decade!
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Trimmed a bit off trading positions in GOOG and SPG.
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VOO bought over second and third week of March
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Sold off some more TSLA (thx Mr. Market).
p(TSLA trades signif lower at some point in the future) is high, so will look to buy back in if opportunity comes up later (after this FOMO rally stalls). Still holding onto some though.
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I'm waiting for another day of Corona fueled enthusiasm to sell my AAPL shares.
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Trimmed a tiny bit more GOOG, shorted some YETI
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I have some DAL 26-strike calls expiring Friday, so I wrote some DAL 26-strike May 1 expiration calls.
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Shorted some OPK
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I sold my VOO (S&P500) puts as we seem to be getting a more clear picture of this pandemic...
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CTL
Took profits. Not interested in bag holding this with whatever the "wfc like scam" is.
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Sold my Google. Figured my quick 15% gain in advance of earnings was something worth holding onto, and had a hard time seeing what would push their shares higher in the near future.
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Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high...
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Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high...
Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html
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Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high...
Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html
I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider.
The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM.
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Yea....SAM is basically a value short. I am typically against these, however cash is trash and I want to remain invested in ideas I think are compelling on the long side. So I'm looking for a lot of "if this, then that" ideas. If this is bad economically, then that happens. SAM is a good shot at downside protection, if things go south. Either via sales declines or multiple contraction.
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Trimmed a bit of TSLA and V
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Exited all but one GOOG $1500 Jan 2022 leaps I bought about a little over month ago at 5.5 for 16.9
F&^k me....could I have missed out on more? Almost certainly! But damn, how can I pass this up in the short term?
options = increased risk/reward and emotions
Would you have taken profits?
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RCL. Thinking about exiting AER, PK, TDG, AEO in other words cheap net-net lower than book value stocks in favour of secular growth stocks with tailwinds like Shop, Sea Limited, etc. However, I'll keep it for now.
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Didn't exit AER, TDG, AEO, PK, but trimmed down by 50%. Reinvested the proceeds into Sea (luckily before the jump).
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Exited all but one GOOG $1500 Jan 2022 leaps I bought about a little over month ago at 5.5 for 16.9
F&^k me....could I have missed out on more? Almost certainly! But damn, how can I pass this up in the short term?
options = increased risk/reward and emotions
Would you have taken profits?
I think you sold way too soon. I would held past 2020.
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Exited all but one GOOG $1500 Jan 2022 leaps I bought about a little over month ago at 5.5 for 16.9
F&^k me....could I have missed out on more? Almost certainly! But damn, how can I pass this up in the short term?
options = increased risk/reward and emotions
Would you have taken profits?
I think you sold way too soon. I would held past 2020.
Probably right, but from the other perspective I generated a lot of free cash flow for myself and there are plenty of other opportunities out there trading at bargain bin prices. In a covid free world there is no doubt I sold too early.
If (I know, I know) the market takes another leg down and GOOG hits 1100 again I would be kicking myself for not selling out earlier an having the cash flow to buy shares.
I feel good about it so I'm gonna go with that ;D
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Exited all but one GOOG $1500 Jan 2022 leaps I bought about a little over month ago at 5.5 for 16.9
F&^k me....could I have missed out on more? Almost certainly! But damn, how can I pass this up in the short term?
options = increased risk/reward and emotions
Would you have taken profits?
I think you sold way too soon. I would held past 2020.
Probably right, but from the other perspective I generated a lot of free cash flow for myself and there are plenty of other opportunities out there trading at bargain bin prices. In a covid free world there is no doubt I sold too early.
If (I know, I know) the market takes another leg down and GOOG hits 1100 again I would be kicking myself for not selling out earlier an having the cash flow to buy shares.
I feel good about it so I'm gonna go with that ;D
Totally understandable. I guess the other question I would ask is, was your initial plan to always sell once the stock hit $1500? I mainly ask due to the duration, as you have a run way of almost 20 months but only held for 1 month.
You're right that the market could have taken a leg down. Though my thinking would have been that sure, things going still go down and we may have another wave of corona, but I've still got a 20 month runaway in a tech company that is generally resilient. I have similar leaps in a variety of tech companies and its hard not to cash in those unrealized gains but I'm going to wait it out till next year, unless something material changes about the actual businesses.
Anyway enjoy the profits!
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I sold out of AAPL.
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I sold out of AAPL.
Curious if you want to share any reasoning.
I have a bit long. Cranking out 30% app store fees, 80% of USA youths have an Apple phone, Trump has an apple phone, lowering costs on some models, Huwawei blocked for politics in USA, going towards services and other products like watch and health, reasonable capital allocation.
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I sold out of AAPL.
Curious if you want to share any reasoning.
I have a bit long. Cranking out 30% app store fees, 80% of USA youths have an Apple phone, Trump has an apple phone, lowering costs on some models, Huwawei blocked for politics in USA, going towards services and other products like watch and health, reasonable capital allocation.
I have absolutely nothing against the business. I think it's a great company. It was valuation sell.
I picked up a lot of it a year or so ago when everyone was freaking out about iphone volumes and talking about what a piece of crap Apple was. But around $320 the value proposition is a lot different than around 160 which was my entry price. So I just rang the cash register.
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EVBG, COUPA, AEO, PK, TDG, in favour for SHOP when it went down.
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Shifted some of my Emerging Markets fund (VEMAX) to US Small Value (VSIAX).
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Sold out of AEO, TDG fully and bought SHOP, SEA LTD.
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Sold my Corona-damaged basket - BUD, MLHR, BPY.UN, RL - for 20~30% gains.
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Sold short a bit $RGA (Life reinsurer) at the open when reading about their stock offering at $81. I was surprised it opened as high as it did ($89) and then even briefly went higher.
I first thought it was a potential long until I read the 424B offering filing. It appears that they loose about $400-500M for every 100k death in the US or 1.4M worldwide, so it is very levered to excess death (which is basically the risk they insure).
I closed this out for a small gain later, but I really think this has a potential as a short as I think we could be a few hundred thousand dead in the US before this is over and potentially a million. In the latter case, RGA likely would be toast.
Anyone has a clue how to get statutory filings. Pre- Corona, they had ~$700M in excess equity and COVID probably took $400-500M of this, so I assume their actuaries got nervous and that’s why their raised capital.
It’s cheap and trades far below book, but every financial on its way to going broke looks cheap and below book. RGA suffers from a double whammy of excess death and low interest rates so it could be really in a bind right now.
I know it’s kind of Macabre to bet on a demise of such a company, but hey what happens, happens whether we bet or not. If nothing else, it could be a way to insure against the tail risk of the virus getting worse again. I own some so insurance positions like TRV, ORI and BRK that I wouldn’t mind protecting.
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Sold most of my COVID trades: GOOG, WMB, SPY, V
Finally exited FCAU, RACE to build some cash
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Sold short a bit $RGA (Life reinsurer) at the open when reading about their stock offering at $81. I was surprised it opened as high as it did ($89) and then even briefly went higher.
I first thought it was a potential long until I read the 424B offering filing. It appears that they loose about $400-500M for every 100k death in the US or 1.4M worldwide, so it is very levered to excess death (which is basically the risk they insure).
I closed this out for a small gain later, but I really think this has a potential as a short as I think we could be a few hundred thousand dead in the US before this is over and potentially a million. In the latter case, RGA likely would be toast.
Anyone has a clue how to get statutory filings. Pre- Corona, they had ~$700M in excess equity and COVID probably took $400-500M of this, so I assume their actuaries got nervous and that’s why their raised capital.
It’s cheap and trades far below book, but every financial on its way to going broke looks cheap and below book. RGA suffers from a double whammy of excess death and low interest rates so it could be really in a bind right now.
I know it’s kind of Macabre to bet on a demise of such a company, but hey what happens, happens whether we bet or not. If nothing else, it could be a way to insure against the tail risk of the virus getting worse again. I own some so insurance positions like TRV, ORI and BRK that I wouldn’t mind protecting.
That's very interesting but i don't plan to spend more time on this (now).
Looking for statutory documents can be a frustrating experience. Sometimes it's useful to look at specific states (Missouri in this case?).
You may want to take a look at the following which is a solvency report from the "international" sub domiciled in Ireland. The report has a risk section (insurance risk, market risk and the new CV risk) with sensitivity scenarios that may be transposed to the whole company?
https://rgare.com/docs/default-source/regulatory-documents/sfcr-report-template-2019.pdf
They also seem to have significant and growing exposure to longevity risk which is related to the management of volatility of pension plans and that has the potential also to be very interesting. The risk that risks become more correlated may be underappreciated.
Please eventually provide longer term follow-up.
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Sold short a bit $RGA (Life reinsurer) at the open when reading about their stock offering at $81. I was surprised it opened as high as it did ($89) and then even briefly went higher.
I first thought it was a potential long until I read the 424B offering filing. It appears that they loose about $400-500M for every 100k death in the US or 1.4M worldwide, so it is very levered to excess death (which is basically the risk they insure).
I closed this out for a small gain later, but I really think this has a potential as a short as I think we could be a few hundred thousand dead in the US before this is over and potentially a million. In the latter case, RGA likely would be toast.
Anyone has a clue how to get statutory filings. Pre- Corona, they had ~$700M in excess equity and COVID probably took $400-500M of this, so I assume their actuaries got nervous and that’s why their raised capital.
It’s cheap and trades far below book, but every financial on its way to going broke looks cheap and below book. RGA suffers from a double whammy of excess death and low interest rates so it could be really in a bind right now.
I know it’s kind of Macabre to bet on a demise of such a company, but hey what happens, happens whether we bet or not. If nothing else, it could be a way to insure against the tail risk of the virus getting worse again. I own some so insurance positions like TRV, ORI and BRK that I wouldn’t mind protecting.
Have you looked at EMGC? There's a (public) writeup on VIC.
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Sold short a bit $RGA (Life reinsurer) at the open when reading about their stock offering at $81. I was surprised it opened as high as it did ($89) and then even briefly went higher.
I first thought it was a potential long until I read the 424B offering filing. It appears that they loose about $400-500M for every 100k death in the US or 1.4M worldwide, so it is very levered to excess death (which is basically the risk they insure).
I closed this out for a small gain later, but I really think this has a potential as a short as I think we could be a few hundred thousand dead in the US before this is over and potentially a million. In the latter case, RGA likely would be toast.
Anyone has a clue how to get statutory filings. Pre- Corona, they had ~$700M in excess equity and COVID probably took $400-500M of this, so I assume their actuaries got nervous and that’s why their raised capital.
It’s cheap and trades far below book, but every financial on its way to going broke looks cheap and below book. RGA suffers from a double whammy of excess death and low interest rates so it could be really in a bind right now.
I know it’s kind of Macabre to bet on a demise of such a company, but hey what happens, happens whether we bet or not. If nothing else, it could be a way to insure against the tail risk of the virus getting worse again. I own some so insurance positions like TRV, ORI and BRK that I wouldn’t mind protecting.
Have you looked at EMGC? There's a (public) writeup on VIC.
EMGC is a fundamentally different business. RGA stock up 12% today. Glad I covered yesterday. they also closed a subordinated bond offering. Looks like they are trying to reinforce their balance sheet, which is a smart move.
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KNOP, 1/4th of ADS
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KNOP, 1/4th of ADS
why KNOP?
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KNOP, 1/4th of ADS
why KNOP?
Quick trade (went long two months ago I think), never intended to hold for long but liked the somewhat uncorrelated risk of their charters and their niche . I think it'll do fine and trade up to BV, but I went a bit on margin in March and I'm dialing back down as well as putting more money into markets outside of the US.
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KNOP, 1/4th of ADS
why KNOP?
Quick trade (went long two months ago I think), never intended to hold for long but liked the somewhat uncorrelated risk of their charters and their niche . I think it'll do fine and trade up to BV, but I went a bit on margin in March and I'm dialing back down as well as putting more money into markets outside of the US.
Makes sense. Given that it's still yielding 10+% dividend, assuming that your margin rate is not high, might worth the wait til it runs to BV.
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Sold Davita shares for my parents and bought some Berkshire b shares.
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TD Ameritrade was showing me $1.45 credit on the HTZ $5/$4 put spread expiration Jan 2022 (mark). TD kept cancelling my order. If anyone is able to sell a $1 put spread for > $1 premium on HTZ, you're welcome.
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TD Ameritrade was showing me $1.45 credit on the HTZ $5/$4 put spread expiration Jan 2022 (mark). TD kept cancelling my order. If anyone is able to sell a $1 put spread for > $1 premium on HTZ, you're welcome.
Thinkorswim side of TD doesn't let $1 put spreads trade >$1. I got lucky and closed out my puts 2 weeks ago. Was looking at put prices today but they are really out of control on HTZ. I'll probably do a $1 calendar 21/22 calendar spread at 0.1.
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Yesterday I sold a portion of NLSN; also closed short call positions in IRM, T, PM. PM I bought back at cost essentially; T & IRM I bought back for 90+% gains.
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shorted some AAL, and added to PINE, F shorts
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Reduced MSB, FIZZ
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1990 HongKong: Xinghua Port.
No topic on this, so just posting in this thread. In case anyone else owns and thinks there is more upside here.
Does anyone have an opinion on what price this will be sold at, if at all.
Thanks.
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Sold my MSGS on that vaccine spike yesterday. I like other stocks better.
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Trimmed some DD, FIZZ, CRSP. Sold out of ANGI(Cheers to a certain board member on that one, thanks!)
Added to shorts in PINE, OPK, AMRN
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Rosetta Stone
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GRBK
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Rosetta Stone
I've now sold essentially all of my Rosetta Stone. A press release saying that they're exploring alternatives has increased the enterprise value of the business by 60%. I think that says alot about both the value of the Lexia and perceptions about of current management.
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WMB, like the Company and pretty cheap but not enough upside
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Any thoughts on CTAS as a short? Stock hitting ATHs on a surprisingly strong quarter, but given their customer base, I have to imagine the core business is going to really struggle over the next couple of years.
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Trimmed TRRSF and CARR
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WMB, like the Company and pretty cheap but not enough upside
it's still has a 8.23% yield at the current price. W/o doing anything, it's not a shabby return.
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WMB, like the Company and pretty cheap but not enough upside
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WMB, like the Company and pretty cheap but not enough upside
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Rosetta Stone
I've now sold essentially all of my Rosetta Stone. A press release saying that they're exploring alternatives has increased the enterprise value of the business by 60%. I think that says alot about both the value of the Lexia and perceptions about of current management.
Well done on what seems like a good, original idea working out nicely.
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WMB, like the Company and pretty cheap but not enough upside
it's still has a 8.23% yield at the current price. W/o doing anything, it's not a shabby return.
Nope, I think that it's very favorable in this environment, but I see more upside elsewhere. There are still some pockets where I think the market is overly focused on the short term. I'm pretty big in auto dealerships and while Asbury in the US is up 150 pct since its low, Cambria Automobiles in the UK is only up like 30 pct after dropping back lately - despite fine results and updates from peers. So just a relative valuation call, WMB looks good here and probably have more juice. With rates at these levels their assets are extremely attractive.
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Shorted TSLA at the open. 1% position. Willing to lose 100%; i.e. will cover at $3200 / share but otherwise will be sticky.
I just couldn't take it any more!
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Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high...
Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html
I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider.
The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM.
I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters.
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Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high...
Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html
I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider.
The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM.
I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters.
Aaaand maybe, hoping to hit $12 in EPS for CY20. Jim Koch and insiders continue to dump their shares all over.
Cant really think of too many better recession hedge stocks than this. Competition is coming from all over with the new seltzer releases....just like it did with soda and cider.
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Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high...
Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html
I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider.
The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM.
I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters.
Aaaand maybe, hoping to hit $12 in EPS for CY20. Jim Koch and insiders continue to dump their shares all over.
Cant really think of too many better recession hedge stocks than this. Competition is coming from all over with the new seltzer releases....just like it did with soda and cider.
I didn’t even realize the stock is up ~25% today until now , my comment was solely based on business performance. In my opinion, they have done a great job with the Dogfish acquisition and now with Truly Selters, which at least here near their. Home base (MA) seems to be winning over White claw in terms of display. They are also grabbing market share in beers (call it craft beer or not).
Anyhow, as a consumer and just an observer how they do on retail or just looking at their financial performance, they do a great job.I can see them using their stock to roll up region craft beer producers (maybe Sierra Nevada to get a west coast stronghold) and growing organically with new products. They are clearly better operators than TAP or BUD. Eventually, they may get into spirits too.
The stock is overvalued, but so what. Overvaluation alonein my opinion is almost never a good reason to short something.
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Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high...
Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html
I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider.
The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM.
I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters.
Aaaand maybe, hoping to hit $12 in EPS for CY20. Jim Koch and insiders continue to dump their shares all over.
Cant really think of too many better recession hedge stocks than this. Competition is coming from all over with the new seltzer releases....just like it did with soda and cider.
I didn’t even realize the stock is up ~25% today until now , my comment was solely based on business performance. In my opinion, they have done a great job with the Dogfish acquisition and now with Truly Selters, which at least here near their. Home base (MA) seems to be winning over White claw in terms of display. They are also grabbing market share in beers (call it craft beer or not).
Anyhow, as a consumer and just an observer how they do on retail or just looking at their financial performance, they do a great job.I can see them using their stock to roll up region craft beer producers (maybe Sierra Nevada to get a west coast stronghold) and growing organically with new products. They are clearly better operators than TAP or BUD. Eventually, they may get into spirits too.
The stock is overvalued, but so what. Overvaluation alonein my opinion is almost never a good reason to short something.
Wow, I hadn't looked at this name in a couple of years. What a ride.
I think they are at risk of being squeezed on both ends of the spectrum. BUD and TAP may not be the greatest operators, but their influence over retailers via their distribution heft is incredible. Just look at how BUD blows out distribution of regional microbrews they acquire. Hard for SAM to compete on that basis.
On the other end of the spectrum, you have the proliferation of local / regional microbreweries that will never be able to compete with SAM or BUD on distribution, but have sufficient regional name recognition that they can muscle out mediocre national brands.
Sam Adams is not a beer anyone I know ever talks about. You're either drinking really good local brands when you want a beer or two, or drinking the Coors Lights of the world when you're on the golf course for the day. I know SAM isn't just Sam Adams, but I just don't see how these guys have a compelling market position over the long term, and certainly wouldn't touch the equity at ~80x FCF.
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Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high...
Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html
I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider.
The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM.
I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters.
Aaaand maybe, hoping to hit $12 in EPS for CY20. Jim Koch and insiders continue to dump their shares all over.
Cant really think of too many better recession hedge stocks than this. Competition is coming from all over with the new seltzer releases....just like it did with soda and cider.
I didn’t even realize the stock is up ~25% today until now , my comment was solely based on business performance. In my opinion, they have done a great job with the Dogfish acquisition and now with Truly Selters, which at least here near their. Home base (MA) seems to be winning over White claw in terms of display. They are also grabbing market share in beers (call it craft beer or not).
Anyhow, as a consumer and just an observer how they do on retail or just looking at their financial performance, they do a great job.I can see them using their stock to roll up region craft beer producers (maybe Sierra Nevada to get a west coast stronghold) and growing organically with new products. They are clearly better operators than TAP or BUD. Eventually, they may get into spirits too.
The stock is overvalued, but so what. Overvaluation alonein my opinion is almost never a good reason to short something.
Yea, I definitely brought it on myself. I dont care to look back on the posts, but this was/is a pure valuation short/hedge. I added a bit more today around $800. I've got a stop at $1050 and will cost myself about 250 bps if hit. I actually did a reasonably amount of work on this some years back when the stock was trading around $175. Figured upside on a sale was $4.5B or so. Was long for a little bit. Hard to imagine Truly is a $6B brand, but who knows in todays market. I dont think this is a "great" company. But its definitely not a bad one. In relation to one of your other posts on shorting, Chanos often mentions the 3 Fs. Frauds, failures, and fads. Ive found the first two are reliable, but fads are highly subjective. One of my best longs in recent years was Sodastream, a 7x trade(left a bunch of upside on the table selling too soon) even though many thought it was an obvious fad. Fads are fads until theyre not. Will probably be the case here. Just another case of "dont short on valuation alone".
An acquaintance sent me an email today on this. Made a rather funny remark about how given the market, you'd think the only thing people did during lockdown was eat Wingstop and drink Sam Adams...
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Sold 60/70 bull verticals on LMND going out to march. Small tracker position.
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Sold OPT.TO
(Figured all the shenanigans would lead to a pop sooner rather than later. For more info on the story, I found this post: https://chaptertwelvecapital.com/post/optiva-the-perils-of-a-controlling-shareholder/ ).
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sold some UNG 9/12 Jan 22 bull spreads.
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PDLI ( thanks to wabuffo for the idea)
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Sold calls on HL
Thanks
Lance
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PDLI ( thanks to wabuffo for the idea)
Why selling it now? there should still be some room to run.
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sold some EDIT
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I am tempted to short Eversource.
My town and neighboring towns has lost powers for a week now and people are so pissed with them.
The regulator is also pissed.
https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/top-state-leader-calls-for-resignation-of-eversource-ceo/2316001/
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I am tempted to short Eversource.
My town and neighboring towns has lost powers for a week now and people are so pissed with them.
The regulator is also pissed.
https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/top-state-leader-calls-for-resignation-of-eversource-ceo/2316001/
First and foremost: Good luck and i hope that 'energy' is restored rapidly. In my quarters, losing WiFi access for a few seconds has the potential to trigger an uproar and it's easy to think of the real consequences when the outage lasts more than a few hours.
This is interesting (utilities as investment targets, utilities risk management strategy for power outages, both as prevention and response and the models behind the thought process; one of my daughter's summer job is to help build a mathematical model that may be sold to the utility monopoly in my jurisdiction and that tries to assess the best strategy to deal with heavy rainfalls in relation to the distribution infrastructure).
Just skip below for a poorly substantiated comment about Eversource.
--o--
We (developed countries) take low outage rates for granted and the number of outages has been convincingly going up including (and especially?) in your great country. There is no need to believe that weather-related events are on the rise since even keeping that number constant, the growing and densifying distribution network will make sure this 'problem' is not going away. And of course, there's the elephant in the room that the American Society of Civil Engineers keeps on depicting (and quantifying): the ageing patchwork of the distribution infrastructure. The US is a large place and is submitted to an unusual array of severe meteorological phenomena, but evidence is building up that the exceptional energy setup has entered a phase of decrepitude. Also, European countries (and my province) typically have a single regulatory body which is responsible for reliability of the entire nation’s power system which is a nagging feature but seems to be a net positive factor for 'reliability' at large. Anyways, 'public' investments will happen but i bet that private players like BRK will successfully resist the crowding out which may recede if budget constraints become fashionable again. Long term thinking may be required but tomorrow starts today in a way. It's interesting to recall that Eisenhower, during his presidency, was inspired to develop the interstate highway system as a result of an attempt (painful) to cross America by jeep decades before as an army man.
--o--
After spending just a few minutes on Eversource (market, network, policies and financials), it's possible that the stock price goes down from a momentum point of view especially if investigations reveal gross mismanagement but these episodes inevitably force politicians to 'strategically' respond in order to temper public outrage and people may realize that it can be hard to put a standard deviation on an Act of God. The fact that a smaller competitor looks good is a compounding factor though. Interestingly, the most effective short term restoration tool for the company may lie in its communications skills, a skill that is hard to assess prospectively. Typically, the long term value of utilities is rarely dented significantly by an isolated and disturbing power outage. Also, i wonder if it's a good idea to short a stock you're mad at..
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I recall when I moved to the US in 1997, I made photos (and wasted film) of sagging power poles and haphazard strung electricity wires especially in San Francsico because I honestly have never seen such a mess, except on a trip to Cuba. I still should have pics somewhere.
My current nervy company is National Grid and when I moved to MA and rented an apparent back then, the power went out in March 2018 twice due to snow storms, the second time for almost a week. In March 2018 it was pretty cold and having no power and heat isn’t fun at all.
When I bought my house here in The same area, a selling point for me is that the power connection is with an underground power wire coming from a main line.
Also and interesting fact is that a town next to me (Groton, MA) bought back their distribution network from national Grid a while ago and currently, their electricity rates are some of the lowest in MA. Also, the grid seems we’ll make tainted and never experienced the outages that Nation Grid experienced during the same 2018 Episode. in fact, realtors use this as a selling point for houses there.
In a world of low interest rates and apparent failure of good stewardship, I think it is an option for local communities to apply pressure to regulated utilities and buy back networks where intakes sense, imo.
One can call this socialism, but in my opinion, with “great power comes great responsibility” and when a monopoly doesn’t meet the needs of the communities it serves , than I think it should be fair to take it back for a reasonable compensation of course.
Now the Groton model may not work everywhere and there isn’t risk theta town mired in “power” politics will do even worse than a privately owned regulated utility.
FWIW, I have no opinion on Eversource or NGG as an investment and don’t recommend shorting something for emotional reasons as well.
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I am tempted to short Eversource.
My town and neighboring towns has lost powers for a week now and people are so pissed with them.
The regulator is also pissed.
https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/top-state-leader-calls-for-resignation-of-eversource-ceo/2316001/
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Sold my BRKB shares. My most Index like position and close enough to fair value to me.
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I am tempted to short Eversource.
My town and neighboring towns has lost powers for a week now and people are so pissed with them.
The regulator is also pissed.
https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/top-state-leader-calls-for-resignation-of-eversource-ceo/2316001/
https://www.zawya.com/mena/en/economy/story/Hurricane_Isaias_may_claim_at_least_one_CEO_scalp-TR20200810nL1N2FC0HXX1/
“Hurricane Isaias may claim at least one chief executive’s scalp. Connecticut legislators want the head of James Judge, the CEO of $30 billion New England utility Eversource Energy, on a pike as blackouts linger in the Nutmeg State. “
Stock is down 2% today.
I am not emotional about this stock. I just think investors are not realizing how bad the situation is for this company.
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I am tempted to short Eversource.
My town and neighboring towns has lost powers for a week now and people are so pissed with them.
The regulator is also pissed.
https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/top-state-leader-calls-for-resignation-of-eversource-ceo/2316001/
https://www.zawya.com/mena/en/economy/story/Hurricane_Isaias_may_claim_at_least_one_CEO_scalp-TR20200810nL1N2FC0HXX1/
“Hurricane Isaias may claim at least one chief executive’s scalp. Connecticut legislators want the head of James Judge, the CEO of $30 billion New England utility Eversource Energy, on a pike as blackouts linger in the Nutmeg State. “
Stock is down 2% today.
I am not emotional about this stock. I just think investors are not realizing how bad the situation is for this company.
ED, PEG and NGG (all of them are East coast utes) are all down today in the same 2% ballpark. Likely cause is rising treasury yields, imo.
May the power be with you soon.
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I am tempted to short Eversource.
My town and neighboring towns has lost powers for a week now and people are so pissed with them.
The regulator is also pissed.
https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/top-state-leader-calls-for-resignation-of-eversource-ceo/2316001/
https://www.zawya.com/mena/en/economy/story/Hurricane_Isaias_may_claim_at_least_one_CEO_scalp-TR20200810nL1N2FC0HXX1/
“Hurricane Isaias may claim at least one chief executive’s scalp. Connecticut legislators want the head of James Judge, the CEO of $30 billion New England utility Eversource Energy, on a pike as blackouts linger in the Nutmeg State. “
Stock is down 2% today.
I am not emotional about this stock. I just think investors are not realizing how bad the situation is for this company.
ED, PEG and NGG (all of them are East coast utes) are all down today in the same 2% ballpark. Likely cause is rising treasury yields, imo.
May the power be with you soon.
Because all of them are being blamed for the storms. For years they have been reducing labors and saved on maintenance, and shareholders benefited. Now politicians may force them to spend more money, including adding new headcounts, to prepare for future outages.
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I am tempted to short Eversource.
My town and neighboring towns has lost powers for a week now and people are so pissed with them.
The regulator is also pissed.
https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/top-state-leader-calls-for-resignation-of-eversource-ceo/2316001/
https://www.zawya.com/mena/en/economy/story/Hurricane_Isaias_may_claim_at_least_one_CEO_scalp-TR20200810nL1N2FC0HXX1/
“Hurricane Isaias may claim at least one chief executive’s scalp. Connecticut legislators want the head of James Judge, the CEO of $30 billion New England utility Eversource Energy, on a pike as blackouts linger in the Nutmeg State. “
Stock is down 2% today.
I am not emotional about this stock. I just think investors are not realizing how bad the situation is for this company.
ED, PEG and NGG (all of them are East coast utes) are all down today in the same 2% ballpark. Likely cause is rising treasury yields, imo.
May the power be with you soon.
Because all of them are being blamed for the storms. For years they have been reducing labors and saved on maintenance, and shareholders benefited. Now politicians may force them to spend more money, including adding new headcounts, to prepare for future outages.
Prioritizing customers over shareholders?
Blasphemy!
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...vs shorting Eversource...
Because all of them are being blamed for the storms. For years they have been reducing labors and saved on maintenance, and shareholders benefited. Now politicians may force them to spend more money, including adding new headcounts, to prepare for future outages.
So, apart from the noise, you have to establish scenarios where the intrinsic value or perception of intrinsic value is or will be significantly impaired.
When looking back at the New York outage from the summer 2019 (there was a small thread on this) and when comparing to the longer term evolution of Con Edison's share price, it is not at all obvious how one could have benefitted from a short sale then (the same CEO is still there).
Investor-owned utility conversion to another model could make sense, under certain circumstances, but this seems unlikely for Eversource. If there was one poor corporate 'citizen' example, it was PG&E (2 threads on this) and it even went through bankruptcy and came out relatively intact.
Please show what is different in this case.
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WFC - Broke even on my position. Plenty of other good banks out there at good prices. I think the thesis should be kept relatively simple. Too many "if they dos" for my liking. Couple that with the current environment and I'd rather try to find a better place for my money. I do believe there will be plenty of opportunities to re-enter a position within the next year should I change my mind.
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Trimmed CELH
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Sold most of my BAESY this week. It is the defense co, I have the least conviction in and it did well recently after the dividend payment was announced (they had deferred it after COVID-19 happened).
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Sold half of FIZZ position.
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Trimmed positions (positive) across the board by 25-50% to raise some capital. Might possibly purchase some residential acreage in the near future.
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I too did some trimming today although not as much, and also going thru closing on a piece of property. Interesting times!
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What are you guys buying?
Primary? Investment?
Vacation?
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Primary (upgrade). May keep current property as an investment, not sure yet.
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What are you guys buying?
Primary? Investment?
Vacation?
Investment that could potentially become primary down the road
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Trimmed a little more FIZZ and lightened up a hair on some MSGE(no less conviction just a very outsized position). Also swapped some SPAQ common into a few SPAQ/ws.
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WFC
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WFC
Long term holder? Why now?
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Trimmed half of BRK.B in a 401K & would sell the rest if it started bumping the 52 week high.
My confidence started to get eroded when WEB bought airlines.
The IPO purchase doesn't even move the needle.
I think the sale of WFC is a blunder (you already have enough cash).
Too many odd purchases that don't seem to have any logic behind them.
It's like he's picking away at garage sales with no cohesive strategy in mind.
As another poster said, just buy back your own stock.
I still believe the core of BHE, BNSF & insurance are strong but...
If it goes sub $180 I may repurchase (and then again, I may not).
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Sold the remainder of my BAESY.
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Sold some GME 5 and 10 calls going out to Jan 22.
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Sold some GME 5 and 10 calls going out to Jan 22.
Could be painful this quarter w/ PS5 + XSX releases, but I like the trade :)
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WFCF
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BRK.B - slowly exiting over the past week.
Reduced positions another 15%
Closed my remaining GOOG calls to free up more cash
Sitting about 70% cash now
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AIM.TO (teeny-tiny leftover position from last tender) this morning ;D I'm now completely out.
wabuffo
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Sold all my Motorpoint PLC today, another quick flip. Now a tiny bit of net cash instead of being 120 pct. long. Still like it, think it's cheap, but considering the froth in parts of the market I prefer to be neutral rather than on margin.
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About a week ago I sold a whole bunch of stuff, essentially as bridge financing on a home purchase. So now I am sitting at around 45% cash at least for the next month. This is the second time I have sold a significant portion of equity investments to fund real estate purchases, before what seems to be a market pullback.
I will have to update my forum signature and update the board when I plan on any future RE purchases :)
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About a week ago I sold a whole bunch of stuff, essentially as bridge financing on a home purchase. So now I am sitting at around 45% cash at least for the next month. This is the second time I have sold a significant portion of equity investments to fund real estate purchases, before what seems to be a market pullback.
I will have to update my forum signature and update the board when I plan on any future RE purchases :)
All the times I sold stock to buy real estate, it turned out that I was considerably better off holding on to those stocks... sigh :-\
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I think in the long term equities will outperform RE, but you’ve gotta live somewhere...to be fair my wife has a knack for real estate markets so this is partly her doing.
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Trimmed INFO, CRM, FB, GOOG, DPZ
Basically the heavily margined, too stubborn to index, quality stuff to raise some liquidity for the coming 6 week home stretch.
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I think in the long term equities will outperform RE, but you’ve gotta live somewhere...to be fair my wife has a knack for real estate markets so this is partly her doing.
I get it. But I stopped selling and used a reasonable amount of margin instead. Working well so far. 8)