Author Topic: Psychology of Misjudgment #22: Authority-Misinfluence Tendency  (Read 874 times)

Charlie

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Re: Psychology of Misjudgment #22: Authority-Misinfluence Tendency
« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2020, 10:32:27 AM »
"Doctors are 3rd leading cause of death in the US."

One antidote with the doctor is to chose the best specialised doctor in the field
and educate yourself if the doctor is doing the right thing.
Try to understand the incentives of the doctor ("You are running for your live and
the doctor only for one meal") and seek second, third or more opinions of other good doctors.
You have all the downside (that´s a lot like the investment business) and the doctor practically none.
The authority seldom says "I don´t know", because of the authority status and
that´s very dangerous.
Be aware of the Man with only 1 hammer syndrome.


cherzeca

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Re: Psychology of Misjudgment #22: Authority-Misinfluence Tendency
« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2020, 10:41:14 AM »
"Doctors are 3rd leading cause of death in the US."

One antidote with the doctor is to chose the best specialised doctor in the field
and educate yourself if the doctor is doing the right thing.
Try to understand the incentives of the doctor ("You are running for your live and
the doctor only for one meal") and seek second, third or more opinions of other good doctors.
You have all the downside (that´s a lot like the investment business) and the doctor practically none.
The authority seldom says "I don´t know", because of the authority status and
that´s very dangerous.
Be aware of the Man with only 1 hammer syndrome.

and who has only 10 minutes of his time to spend with you

SharperDingaan

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Re: Psychology of Misjudgment #22: Authority-Misinfluence Tendency
« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2020, 12:41:07 PM »
Just to throw one out for the boiler maker ....
https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52

"Say you had the choice between two surgeons of similar rank in the same department in some hospital. The first is highly refined in appearance; he wears silver-rimmed glasses, has a thin build, delicate hands, a measured speech, and elegant gestures. His hair is silver and well combed. He is the person you would put in a movie if you needed to impersonate a surgeon. His office prominently boasts an Ivy League diploma, both for his undergraduate and medical schools.

The second one looks like a butcher; he is overweight, with large hands, uncouth speech and an unkempt appearance. His shirt is dangling from the back. No known tailor in the East Coast of the U.S. is capable of making his shirt button at the neck. He speaks unapologetically with a strong New Yawk accent, as if he wasn’t aware of it. He even has a gold tooth showing when he opens his mouth. The absence of diploma on the wall hints at the lack of pride in his education: he perhaps went to some local college. In a movie, you would expect him to impersonate a retired bodyguard for a junior congressman, or a third-generation cook in a New Jersey cafeteria.

Now if I had to pick, I would overcome my suckerproneness and take the butcher any minute. Even more: I would seek the butcher as a third option if my choice was between two doctors who looked like doctors. Why? Simply the one who doesn’t look the part, conditional of having made a (sort of) successful career in his profession, had to have much to overcome in terms of perception. And if we are lucky enough to have people who do not look the part, it is thanks to the presence of some skin in the game, the contact with reality that filters out incompetence, as reality is blind to looks.

When the results come from dealing directly with reality rather than through the agency of commentators, image matters less, even if it correlates to skills. But image matters quite a bit when there is hierarchy and standardized “job evaluation”."

In this analogy, the little people are the butchers - dealing directly with reality, everyday.
We don't see them, because their gains went into the very unglamorous purchase of multiple rental properties, and mortgage retirement. They live modestly and own their multiple properties outright  ;D

SD

 
 
« Last Edit: October 23, 2020, 06:09:07 AM by SharperDingaan »

LC

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Another tangent to SD’s post. Those who do not “fit the mold” may be a better choice also because they realize that “the mold” does not matter.

It reminds me of stories of Fermi, who while creating the worlds first nuclear reactor, would also help the cleaning crew and janitors empty trash and tidy up at the end of the day, to his colleagues bewilderment and amusement.
"Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style."
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