Author Topic: what are you selling today?  (Read 146954 times)

Castanza

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #230 on: July 26, 2019, 12:07:08 PM »
Sold 75% of my HSY - Hershey position. Merely profit taking as it was my best performer this past year. Cost average was 95ish and sold today for 136. My thesis hasn't changed much on the company in general, but this rapid ramp up in price made me want to take some profits.

Edit: Tariff tensions are making me a bit uneasy with HSY. The three Mexican plants are quite important in supporting the North American supply chain. I'm uncertain how tariffs will affect the NA segment. NA makes up about 89% of HSY market where Brazil, MX, China, India make up most of the remaining market share. India is their fastest growing international market.

One thing I do like is Hershey owns all but 2(located in Georgia and NY) manufacturing plants. And in general, their products are manufactured in the marketplace which they will be selling. This helps reduce risk somewhat. Noticed a large surge in $125 August puts today and figured, might as well take profits. Honestly, this has been one of my best plays.

Link to the 10-k if anyone was interested. Don't think I've seen this stock covered on here.

https://www.thehersheycompany.com/content/dam/corporate-us/documents/annual-reports/2019-proxy-statement.pdf

Kicking myself one month later...who would have thought this was going to keep running?!
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Gregmal

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #231 on: July 30, 2019, 05:44:41 AM »
Sold last of my NXPI premarket at 102. Busted merger play that ended up producing a respectable shorter term IRR after trading around it(December helped big time).

Noticing a trend with this company that I'm not a fan of, and I'm already overweight GOOG, GM, and CIBR, which roundaboutly cover all the things I felt I liked about NXPI.


EDIT: Also sold last of my JOE; again, thanks December!
« Last Edit: July 30, 2019, 07:00:58 AM by Gregmal »

Saluki

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #232 on: August 01, 2019, 06:59:00 AM »


EDIT: Also sold last of my JOE; again, thanks December!

Did you buy JOE in December?  If so, you did great.  I'm still a holder. 

Been selling off a little of HHC.  Still like the company and the assets, but I see some cheaper stuff out there and I'm overweight in real estate (also own SRG and TPHS).
If it's important, do it every day. If it's not important, don't do it at all.  -Dan Gable

Gregmal

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #233 on: August 01, 2019, 07:15:36 AM »


EDIT: Also sold last of my JOE; again, thanks December!

Did you buy JOE in December?  If so, you did great.  I'm still a holder. 

Been selling off a little of HHC.  Still like the company and the assets, but I see some cheaper stuff out there and I'm overweight in real estate (also own SRG and TPHS).

Same deal for me, just somewhat different names. Too much cheap real estate. If I can easily determine a real estate company is sitting on assets(or debt) that won't turn the equity into a 0, just wait for a big enough pullback or margin of safety and then buy it on margin. The downside is not all of those can be long term holdings.

alpha

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #234 on: August 05, 2019, 05:08:14 PM »
Sold my DF position for a nice return. I was planning to go long but recent run up isn't based on any fundamentals and tomorrows earnings report is likely to be more bad news.

Cigarbutt

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #235 on: August 06, 2019, 05:22:24 PM »
Sold my DF position for a nice return. I was planning to go long but recent run up isn't based on any fundamentals and tomorrows earnings report is likely to be more bad news.
Impressive return during your holding period.
It seems that Mr. Market is offering another opportunity unless the latest report has changed your assessment of the fundamentals?

KJP

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #236 on: August 07, 2019, 06:21:10 AM »


EDIT: Also sold last of my JOE; again, thanks December!

Did you buy JOE in December?  If so, you did great.  I'm still a holder. 

Been selling off a little of HHC.  Still like the company and the assets, but I see some cheaper stuff out there and I'm overweight in real estate (also own SRG and TPHS).

Same deal for me, just somewhat different names. Too much cheap real estate. If I can easily determine a real estate company is sitting on assets(or debt) that won't turn the equity into a 0, just wait for a big enough pullback or margin of safety and then buy it on margin. The downside is not all of those can be long term holdings.

I have learned that lesson via companies like Keck Seng, where compounding over long periods is hard if management overpays for assets.

Right now, I still hold HHC, but I'm more interested in adding to Griffin Industrial and FRP Holdings.  Griffin seems clearly undervalued to NAV, NAV appears to be growing, and you can see a 3-5 plan (maybe sooner) on how that gap would close, particularly if interest rates stay low.  FRP's NAV, on the other hand, is tougher to estimate, but you get to invest alongside the Bakers at the same prices (or lower) that they are buying back shares.  You could do much worse than simply giving the Bakers your money via FRP and watch them act prudently and harvest assets at the right time, as they've done many times in the past.  And if you want to see what a great asset looks, just look at what they don't sell -- royalties on rock piles.

One real-estate related company that I've haven't seen discussed on here is Canterbury Park Holdings.  That may interest some on here, but it's much more of a single asset real estate play, and the attached race track operating business is having issues.

Gregmal

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #237 on: August 07, 2019, 06:29:40 AM »


EDIT: Also sold last of my JOE; again, thanks December!

Did you buy JOE in December?  If so, you did great.  I'm still a holder. 

Been selling off a little of HHC.  Still like the company and the assets, but I see some cheaper stuff out there and I'm overweight in real estate (also own SRG and TPHS).

Same deal for me, just somewhat different names. Too much cheap real estate. If I can easily determine a real estate company is sitting on assets(or debt) that won't turn the equity into a 0, just wait for a big enough pullback or margin of safety and then buy it on margin. The downside is not all of those can be long term holdings.

I have learned that lesson via companies like Keck Seng, where compounding over long periods is hard if management overpays for assets.

Right now, I still hold HHC, but I'm more interested in adding to Griffin Industrial and FRP Holdings.  Griffin seems clearly undervalued to NAV, NAV appears to be growing, and you can see a 3-5 plan (maybe sooner) on how that gap would close, particularly if interest rates stay low.  FRP's NAV, on the other hand, is tougher to estimate, but you get to invest alongside the Bakers at the same prices (or lower) that they are buying back shares.  You could do much worse than simply giving the Bakers your money via FRP and watch them act prudently and harvest assets at the right time, as they've done many times in the past.  And if you want to see what a great asset looks, just look at what they don't sell -- royalties on rock piles.

One real-estate related company that I've haven't seen discussed on here is Canterbury Park Holdings.  That may interest some on here, but it's much more of a single asset real estate play, and the attached race track operating business is having issues.

Aha! You've been using the same strategy? Buying below FRPH disclosed repurchase prices has worked well.

Have not heard of Canterbury. Sounds a little like Dover Downs. Thanks

Spekulatius

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #238 on: August 09, 2019, 04:06:26 PM »
Sold REZI after the earnings report. I had reduced my position before the CC, but sold out after. While they made the revenue and earnings number, it was a very low quality report. Gross margin does and the pro forma # excludes the indemnity payment to HON (capped at $140M/ year). This payment is represented on the balance sheet as a $580M liability , but I think it will cost more. Anyway, thy have about $1.1B in debt (costing ~$70M in interest) and donít seem to be able to generate any FCF currently. I misjudged this, itís another crappo spinoff (GTX is a sinking ship also), so I take my 15% loss and move on.

KTB is doing better than I thought, also the earnings report is nothing to write home about either.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

Spekulatius

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #239 on: August 22, 2019, 07:02:53 AM »
Sold PRSP. Seems fully valued.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.