Author Topic: what are you selling today?  (Read 128713 times)

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #420 on: March 25, 2020, 03:55:07 PM »
Any good short candidates out there?   I saw alwaysDrawing's post and it reminded me that this is a good day to put on a hedge.

One candidate I am looking at is AAPL.  How in the hell are people going to buy their products if they can't even pay rent?  This is a consumer discretionary company in my mind, it shouldn't be selling at 20x earnings.   Yes they have cash or tangible book but it is around 1/10 of current market cap.  I remember in GFC they sold below their net asset value (not saying that will be repeated but throwing it out for comparison).   

AAPL is 100% a bet on Corona virus blowing up the economy, I do not expect this to pan out otherwise. I am also almost fully invested so more a hedge against my gut that things will be okay.  I am buying relatively short duration puts (June 2020 maturity) that are deep out of the money.   If things really go to hell and apple get cut in half they could do 10-15x.

Ferrari at 40x P/FCF and Kinsale Capital (Insurance company at 6x BV) Not my original idea, but it just looks pricey.  Ferrari factory is also shut down for at least 2 weeks.

Also million $ collector cars may be less important when folks are short on cash.

Probably not for the 8k or so folks who buy the cars a year. Ferrari did just fine in 2008 and they'll probably do just fine now.

We can debate whether 40x is the right multiple (I'll bnot defend it), but I have zero concerns about the business.


rb

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #421 on: March 26, 2020, 06:48:05 AM »
ZBH

Cigarbutt

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #422 on: March 26, 2020, 08:09:03 AM »
ZBH
Well done! That looks like a 33% return over 8 days.
I just saw that ZBH traded at present levels in 2014. Then, they say markets are efficient.

Castanza

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #423 on: March 26, 2020, 08:16:45 AM »
Sold 50% INMD will let the rest ride.

rb

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #424 on: March 26, 2020, 08:56:01 AM »
ZBH
Well done! That looks like a 33% return over 8 days.
I just saw that ZBH traded at present levels in 2014. Then, they say markets are efficient.
Thanks I wish I got more. I caught a good bid for like 5 seconds. It closed up like 8% from my fill price on that day and it was a crappy day.

Spekulatius

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #425 on: March 26, 2020, 06:43:27 PM »
I trimmed my positions substantially. Too many to mention. I am basically making a call this rally won’t last. I also shorted some SPY at the close for a short term trade.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

Agrippa07

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Re: what are you selling today?
« Reply #426 on: March 27, 2020, 12:46:22 AM »
Same here, I trimmed most of my positions over the course of this week.