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NotSoWise

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  1. Dinar, you need to factor the price in the equation. It is not only about what is better, but also how much you pay for something. Otherwise I would pick Adobe over Dufry.
  2. Look at the price range of Dufry and Aena over the past 5 years. Do you see any potential for meaningful bounce back at Aena? I bought Dufry at CHF 35 with the hope of it getting to CHF 70-100 in 3 years time horizon (until flights return to normal). If I am right, my potential return is 2x-3x. At today's price, I am already at 1,4x in 1,33 years. If I had bought Aena at the same time (Sep'20) at EUR 120, my upside in 3 years would be up to probably EUR 170. If I was right here, my return would be 1,4x in 3 years. So which one of the two made more sense? Which one would you chose? As for share issue, part of it went to delist their subsidiary Hudson news at very low price (on which they should do 2-3x money), I dont count this as earnings dilution. The rest went to raise cash to survive covid, so only larger part of the issue was dilution.
  3. They were much better businesses in the past, with less professional airports operators, where rents were smaller than they should be compared to traffic they offered (and exclusivity). However with more professionalism in airports, the rents are going up each year (on average across retail portfolio) and the business is very slowly loosing its profitability. So it is an ok business today, but I would not keep it long term. Once the numbers bounce back, I will sell.
  4. There is a pretty good and recent VIC write up on Dufry - worth reading. Overall it is about getting back to normal after covid. It is not a forever hold/ compounder (higher and higher rents they pay at airports), but rather bounce back situation. Number of flights are mostly back (EU/ USA) with the number of passengers slowly catching up (save for China). Probably this holiday season should be reasonably close to what it used to be in the past, so Q3'22 numbers should be pretty strong. 2023 probably back to normal. They are already CF breakeven (but with temporarily lower rents, which will go up with better CF), so no bankruptcy risk. Strong minority shareholders with cash (Advent/ Alibaba), so worst case another capital raise, which I dont expect. Good thing was that not all capital raise went to dilution. Part of the money went to delist their subsidiary Hudson News in US at a low price.
  5. Cool to see some confirmation bias... This is my largest position in the portfolio at 15%, bought it Sep2020. The price is still good and we should see more upside towards the end of 2022. Only China/ parts of Asia are still closed, but this is a very small part of the business. US and EU is pretty much open. With a bit of luck, this may end up between CHF 70 and 100 per share in 1-3 years horizon. Interesting pick CafeB, not as popular as Facebook.
  6. throw123, do you think I should change my username? As people say: "Better lucky than smart" It may go up less tomorrow after people read in more details, we will see.
  7. Yes, user name is my ass cover for stupid posts.
  8. Adding to AMZN for a long term hold (5+ years). A bit risky just before earnings and still not cheap...
  9. She must be desperate to stop redemptions after crappy recent performance. She could be in a position to sell more liquid stuff and keep illiquid stuff, no matter the quality or valuations. Her picture will be next to Gerald Tsai in books about investing.
  10. Well, you can put money in ARK for a 40% IRR over the next 5 years. Her selling Tesla is not helping the strategy... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/despite-big-plunge-cathie-wood-173500607.html
  11. a bit late to the party, but retook a small position in BABA at 2%. After quite a long deliberation I decided to like it at usd 120. Even if domestic e-commerce profitability is going to be less, low multiple, growth plus other parts of the business should provide enough return (cloud, payments, international, other services). Third time lucky I hope...
  12. US tech... yes Chinese tech might have better future near term given decreasing interest rates in China, earlier stage in internet development, low multiples. CCP is probably also done with spanking, as their asses are already hot red. Plus China cant invade Taiwan in risk free manner yet, they will need probably few more years. So even Adobe at -10% today, is still way too expensive, even for the quality. Think about how crazy the valuations are when they have small miss and the price goes down 10%.
  13. Spek, out of curiosity checked your picks and VNT got me to read more about it. I did some limited reading. Are you looking at it as short term thing with multiple rebound from low PE? As a long term hold, there might be some concerns about their revenue lines plus some 3x debt, which will limit what they could do over the next 2-3 years? DBR acquisition was not cheap. Also Danaher spins-off below average businesses to what they keep, I guess Fortive did the same. Once the multiple is up, there would be less reasons to hold.
  14. Bought V, MA, Prosus/ Tencent - nothing original here. Dufry worth looking again at these levels - it may bounce back next year big time. Advent International and Alibaba entered via capital raise to delist Hudson plus give cash. Now the price is good again thanks to Omicron. I have just resisted buying HLF - I need to end my addiction to cheap crap... forgot to add, ADSK after it tanked, but not cheap... cant find anything else at these prices
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