Unlike you, I don't see that as super cheap. It is certainly good value, and allows for solid compounding from here, but insurance companies don't generally sustain multiples *much* higher than this. I mean, it's not like they trade at 2x or 3x book long term. 1.4-1.5x, maybe.
For me it's just because FFH has gone from a deep, deep value to a compounder-type value. As the share price has closed on IV, so my position size has doubled, despite the rest of the portfolio doing well. So it is now less good value and a much bigger position. That warrants action so long as there I have other good ideas. But I emphasise that I am not selling much. I am topping the position on share price spikes but I retain most of what I owned at the low in 2020, because I DO see strong performance from here. I am a *very* long term holder of this stock (16 years so far and hoping for I'm only a quarter of the way through).
BTW one area where you and I slightly differ, as we have discussed before, is on how much execution has improved. It definitely HAS improved, and there was a big focus on this after years of investment underperformance. But the things that have really moved the needle are outside management's control: higher interest rates (drives earnings on float and Eurobank's NIM), lower combined ratio (which is clearly and I think mostly driven by higher interest rates because rates have impacted BV at most other insurers and because capital is no longer flooding into the industry in sidecars etc.), and higher commodity prices (which helps a lot of the investment book). All of these things were valuable options 4 years ago; today they are realities and are increasingly (but not fully) priced in. But improved execution hasn't affected these things. In fact, the *really* good execution was *before* these changes happened, when FFH kept the bond portfolio short, kept their underwriting discipline in the soft market, invested in undervalued commodity stocks (much to the chagrin of many here), and waited while Eurobank slowly dealt with their NPLs. Their patience *then* is what is driving today's earnings, more than their execution *now*, it's just that they didn't get credit *then*, but now they do because the market can see the benefits. I see much greater continuity in management's decision-making than you do, and I think this affects how we think about the stock today: you see great execution as something that is likely to continue, whereas I saw FFH *partly* as a bundle of undervalued macro options 4 years ago, and those options are less undervalued now.
That said, I also see FFH *partly* as an excellent management team which I want to compound with forever. And I do recognise that in certain key areas execution has transformed, most notably eschewing broad hedging and finding ways out of losing investments rather than holding them forever (although even here, few things have actually been monetised - the bigger thing has simply been positions getting smaller as the portfolio grows).
Sorry - longer post than I intended.