Author Topic: HCC- Warrior Met Coal  (Read 867 times)

hasilp89

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 24
HCC- Warrior Met Coal
« on: February 19, 2020, 05:28:01 PM »
Hadnít seen a thread regarding them on the site.

Pretty simple business to understand if you read the filings and presentations.

Interested on any thoughts specifically regarding the latest earning and outlook. Have not read transcript yet but assume thereís more color there too.

1. $120/ton pricing in q4, mgmt seemed to expect it given environment, however was surprised to see the yoy decline, but happy to see the ~$80 cash cost

2. Announcement on blue creek - announced they are moving forward with more details on expected returns ($20/share npv at $150/ton pricing), didnít expect the 5 year timeline and the decision to fund with cash rather than debt, assume that puts a halt on capital return in the near term.

After returning entire market cap since ipo my concern is investors at current prices wont see great returns in the near term given capital returns will slow down (unless prices get back up into the upper 100s, which Iím not counting on).


RadMan24

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 474
Re: HCC- Warrior Met Coal
« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2020, 06:56:19 PM »
Hadnít seen a thread regarding them on the site.

Pretty simple business to understand if you read the filings and presentations.

Interested on any thoughts specifically regarding the latest earning and outlook. Have not read transcript yet but assume thereís more color there too.

1. $120/ton pricing in q4, mgmt seemed to expect it given environment, however was surprised to see the yoy decline, but happy to see the ~$80 cash cost

2. Announcement on blue creek - announced they are moving forward with more details on expected returns ($20/share npv at $150/ton pricing), didnít expect the 5 year timeline and the decision to fund with cash rather than debt, assume that puts a halt on capital return in the near term.

After returning entire market cap since ipo my concern is investors at current prices wont see great returns in the near term given capital returns will slow down (unless prices get back up into the upper 100s, which Iím not counting on).

If you're not expecting met coal prices at or above $150 in the future, don't invest.

DeepSouth

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 103
Re: HCC- Warrior Met Coal
« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2020, 07:38:17 AM »
Without the large cash returns, this is dead money for years unless met coal price spikes. The market has very little appetite for base metals production growth.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2020, 07:40:28 AM by DeepSouth »