Author Topic: 8909 - Shinoken Group Co  (Read 9514 times)

shamelesscloner

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8909 - Shinoken Group Co
« on: January 18, 2021, 09:23:01 PM »
Word on the street is that Mohnish Pabrai took a 5% stake recently.

A few fine resources to learn more about the company...
Value Investors Club: https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Shinoken/7471075774

Raper Capital: https://rapercapital.com/2019/08/19/shinoken-this-is-what-value-looks-like/

And it appears Shinoken was presented as a Best Idea 2021 at MOI Global: https://moiglobal.com/mike-kruger-202101/

If you own Shinoken, what is your elevator pitch?


Arski

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Re: 8909 - Shinoken Group Co
« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2021, 12:12:42 PM »
Thanks for sharing those great resources. I take a lot of comfort in those long and detailed write-ups, Pabrai holding it and a 18.5% stake for the president of the company, Hideaki Shinohara.

I'm take more comfort in 5% bets and made Shinoken also one.

shamelesscloner

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Re: 8909 - Shinoken Group Co
« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2021, 12:16:57 PM »
Thanks for sharing those great resources. I take a lot of comfort in those long and detailed write-ups, Pabrai holding it and a 18.5% stake for the president of the company, Hideaki Shinohara.

I'm take more comfort in 5% bets and made Shinoken also one.

Raper Capital also posted an update on Shinoken here: https://rapercapital.com/2020/02/19/shinoken-update-the-story-keeps-getting-better-still-a-double-and-more/

Arski

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Re: 8909 - Shinoken Group Co
« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2021, 12:26:12 PM »
Thanks for sharing those great resources. I take a lot of comfort in those long and detailed write-ups, Pabrai holding it and a 18.5% stake for the president of the company, Hideaki Shinohara.

I'm take more comfort in 5% bets and made Shinoken also one.

Raper Capital also posted an update on Shinoken here: https://rapercapital.com/2020/02/19/shinoken-update-the-story-keeps-getting-better-still-a-double-and-more/

Interesting. Thanks!

zuminsan

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Re: 8909 - Shinoken Group Co
« Reply #4 on: February 18, 2021, 06:00:30 PM »
I Took 20% position and very comfortable. If it gets cheaper, I will pile in more.
I just took a simple approach of taking their recurring cash flow business which is around 5-6 billion yen and assume every other parts of the business and their cash flow falls apart 0 Yen. So I am basically buying strongest part of the business which is the real estate Management service, Elder care, utility and their insurance business all together. It would still be a bargain Because the current market cap is around 40-42 bil. yen, so I am paying 6 -8 time cash flow for the strongest part of business and bet everything else is 0. I think my downside is pretty protected.
If the other part of the business (construction, apartment & condo sales) stays normal which is roughly about 50-60% which is another 6-7 bill yen cash, then it's a double.
Love to hear what others think, maybe there is some blindspot that I am missing. Would love to find out.

zuminsan

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Re: 8909 - Shinoken Group Co
« Reply #5 on: February 18, 2021, 06:02:32 PM »
Also read Raper capital's report, anyone has any idea on why he is using EBIT to look at the business instead of new income or owner's earning? Thanks

valuepickr

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Re: 8909 - Shinoken Group Co
« Reply #6 on: February 18, 2021, 07:55:43 PM »
Any idea why volume is very less
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SHIOF

shamelesscloner

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Re: 8909 - Shinoken Group Co
« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2021, 09:14:08 PM »
Any idea why volume is very less
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SHIOF

It shows up on TDAmeritrade but isn't actually available. I wonder about other US brokerages.

MattR

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Re: 8909 - Shinoken Group Co
« Reply #8 on: February 18, 2021, 11:50:15 PM »
Apparently Raper has already sold due to this:
https://twitter.com/puppyeh1/status/1362563109357973504

Arski

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Re: 8909 - Shinoken Group Co
« Reply #9 on: February 19, 2021, 12:02:48 AM »
I saw nobody mentioning it (also not in the Raper Capital write-up, if I remember it correctly), but I'm a little concerned with the global housing boom. I don't know how the house prices are in Japan but probably are quite high.

In 2008 - which was of course an exceptional year -, shinoken got hit bad and lost 50% of their revenue. Their share price got hammered from 514 in april 2007 to the low of 21 in september 2009.

As I understand it correctly, their income from real estate was like 80% or more and now the income is like 50% service and 50% real estate, which reduces the exposure to a downturn/crash in the housing market. Still, when such an event happens I think shinoken could lose 25% of their revenue.

Maybe someone thinks he has a better view/judgement about this?