Author Topic: AAPL - Apple Inc.  (Read 1612144 times)

valueInv

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #560 on: November 08, 2012, 12:20:36 AM »
shows no inclination to return any of the $100b+ in cash to shareholders. not surprising it gets a low multiple.

Ummmm, they just started paying a dividend and also have announced $10B in buybacks.

Do you ever bother with the facts?

lol. they are only going to be returning a fraction of the cash flow they earn over the next three years, let alone a single dime out of the mountain of excess cash that is sitting there earning zero.
http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_21916488/apple-mini-lines-mini-ipad-store-low-sales-turnout

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/19/us-apple-idUSBRE82F03N20120319

They are returning $45B over the next three years. So what fraction do you think that is? 10%?   ;D


valueInv

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #561 on: November 08, 2012, 12:29:07 AM »
shows no inclination to return any of the $100b+ in cash to shareholders. not surprising it gets a low multiple.

Ummmm, they just started paying a dividend and also have announced $10B in buybacks.

Do you ever bother with the facts?

Some facts for you:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-07/apple-drops-20-percent-from-intraday-record-san-francisco-mover.html

ummm announced buybacks isn't buybacks.  10 B at several times book on a 500 B company is just BS.  I would be really impressed if they got clearance and announced 50 or 100 B in dividends and/or buybacks. 

BTW Smazz, great video.
Yeah, I noticed the stock price and have been adding. 10B buybacks at 12 times earnings for a company that grew 25% on a missed quarter is pretty good. The buybacks are in addition to their dividend.

Obviously, they are not going to return $100B when the cash they have is $120B.

Since you're back on the thread, here's a fact for you:

http://bgr.com/2012/11/05/ipad-mini-sales-opening-weekend/

No bad for a product that received "no coverage" and had no advertising. How many companies you know that can release a product in "secret" and move 3M in the opening weekend?

Here's another fact for you:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/01/us-apple-ipad-components-idUSBRE8A017220121101

#facts.

Uccmal

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #562 on: November 08, 2012, 03:49:56 AM »
Valueinv,

Take another 50 B off the market cap - brings it to about 350 B ex. cash, and Apple would make a fine GARP play.  I wouldn't buy it, but that's more due to my style.

GARP tending toward value

Olmsted

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #563 on: November 08, 2012, 05:31:44 AM »
Aren't you guys concerned about competition?  Unless Apple stays ahead of anyone else on the innovation front, they will either be challenged on margins or on volume as imitators make better and better tablets/phones and start picking off the marginal Apple consumer.  Apple can either hold firm on pricing, keeping the hardcore Apple buyers but likely losing business on the low end, or hold firm on volume - which means lowering prices so the low-end buyer sees less of a price gap between the Apple products he really wants and the others.  Neither is a good scenario, and that 12x trailing PE will rapidly become a higher forward multiple ($100b cash notwithstanding).

The antidote is innovation and to stay one step ahead of everyone else.  Buying Apple today absolutely is a bet on future innovation, not their current product lineup. 

racemize

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #564 on: November 08, 2012, 05:48:39 AM »
Aren't you guys concerned about competition?  Unless Apple stays ahead of anyone else on the innovation front, they will either be challenged on margins or on volume as imitators make better and better tablets/phones and start picking off the marginal Apple consumer.  Apple can either hold firm on pricing, keeping the hardcore Apple buyers but likely losing business on the low end, or hold firm on volume - which means lowering prices so the low-end buyer sees less of a price gap between the Apple products he really wants and the others.  Neither is a good scenario, and that 12x trailing PE will rapidly become a higher forward multiple ($100b cash notwithstanding).

The antidote is innovation and to stay one step ahead of everyone else.  Buying Apple today absolutely is a bet on future innovation, not their current product lineup.

Unless the overall growth in the tablet/smartphone market offsets market share loss.

DCG

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #565 on: November 08, 2012, 06:09:36 AM »
Aren't you guys concerned about competition?  Unless Apple stays ahead of anyone else on the innovation front, they will either be challenged on margins or on volume as imitators make better and better tablets/phones and start picking off the marginal Apple consumer.  Apple can either hold firm on pricing, keeping the hardcore Apple buyers but likely losing business on the low end, or hold firm on volume - which means lowering prices so the low-end buyer sees less of a price gap between the Apple products he really wants and the others.  Neither is a good scenario, and that 12x trailing PE will rapidly become a higher forward multiple ($100b cash notwithstanding).

The antidote is innovation and to stay one step ahead of everyone else.  Buying Apple today absolutely is a bet on future innovation, not their current product lineup.

At the moment, I'm more concerned with their continued supply issues than competition.

valueInv

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #566 on: November 08, 2012, 07:53:38 AM »
Valueinv,

Take another 50 B off the market cap - brings it to about 350 B ex. cash, and Apple would make a fine GARP play.  I wouldn't buy it, but that's more due to my style.

If I were you, I wouldn't buy it at any price. This company is waaaay outside your circle of competence.

valueInv

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #567 on: November 08, 2012, 08:03:28 AM »
Aren't you guys concerned about competition?  Unless Apple stays ahead of anyone else on the innovation front, they will either be challenged on margins or on volume as imitators make better and better tablets/phones and start picking off the marginal Apple consumer.  Apple can either hold firm on pricing, keeping the hardcore Apple buyers but likely losing business on the low end, or hold firm on volume - which means lowering prices so the low-end buyer sees less of a price gap between the Apple products he really wants and the others.  Neither is a good scenario, and that 12x trailing PE will rapidly become a higher forward multiple ($100b cash notwithstanding).

The antidote is innovation and to stay one step ahead of everyone else.  Buying Apple today absolutely is a bet on future innovation, not their current product lineup.

At the moment, I'm more concerned with their continued supply issues than competition.

+1. Particularly concerning if we don't see wait times decline by Black Friday.

Every time I bought Apple, it was when they released a new product and the world crapped on them.
Essentially, I handicapped products, not the stock.

With all the attention and expectations surrounding them, I was resigned to the fact the I would never get a buying opportunity again. I thought that everyone figured out how to read the company and my advantage was lost. Boy, was I wrong!

The funny thing is I am a contrarian within a contrarian board :-)

rimm_never_sleeps

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #568 on: November 08, 2012, 09:29:17 AM »

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/19/us-apple-idUSBRE82F03N20120319

They are returning $45B over the next three years. So what fraction do you think that is? 10%?   ;D

exactly. they will be taking in over $150b (if all your rosy projections come true) and will be returning $45b without so much as touching a dime of the $120b of Net Cash on the balance sheet (around 22% of market cap). Is it any wonder that it is selling for less than 11 times f2013 estimates?
« Last Edit: November 08, 2012, 09:37:21 AM by rimm_never_sleeps »

DCG

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #569 on: November 08, 2012, 09:37:23 AM »

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/19/us-apple-idUSBRE82F03N20120319

They are returning $45B over the next three years. So what fraction do you think that is? 10%?   ;D

exactly. they will be taking in over $150b (if all your rosy projections come true) and will be returning $45b without so much as touching a dime of the $120b of Net Cash on the balance sheet (around 20% of market cap). Is it any wonder that it is selling for less than 11 times f2013 estimates?

They are selling at a low price because of concerns over supply and competition, NOT because they're not giving away their cash. Are you complaining that Berkshire isn't doing anything with their $48B of cash right now?