Author Topic: AAPL - Apple Inc.  (Read 1612190 times)

Ross812

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #590 on: November 09, 2012, 05:29:03 AM »
I was talking to a friend who works for a mutual fund company about Apple recently. He made a really good point. He said when he looks at Apple the fundamentals look great, but it has reached critical mass. Apple is one of the most widely owned stocks in the market. A lot of mutual fund companies buy it for its window dressing effect as much as its fundamentals. He said many mutual fund companies have 5%+ allocated to AAPL and where do they go from there? Do they increase to 7%? At some point you run out of buyers. On an even more macro side think about all the index funds out there. There is a huge amount of fixed buying and selling that goes on to match the index; an index in which Apple is the largest component. Apple may have the fundamentals but who is going to buy it? There was another run in the stock price after they initiated a dividend and AAPL was available to more restricted mutual funds, but what can they do now? Maybe its not all about the company and has a lot to do with finance as well. What happens when you are only allowed to hold 5% of a stock and it grows larger than that in your portfolio? You are forced to sell to others, many of who are at 5% or selling already.
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Uccmal

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #591 on: November 09, 2012, 05:30:07 AM »
hardincap, go ahead and make your 20% on Apple.

My long term record speaks for itself.

Long Bac, ffh, aig, wfc, ssw, rbs.pr.p

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« Last Edit: November 09, 2012, 05:34:20 AM by Uccmal »
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Uccmal

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #592 on: November 09, 2012, 05:31:49 AM »
I was talking to a friend who works for a mutual fund company about Apple recently. He made a really good point. He said when he looks at Apple the fundamentals look great, but it has reached critical mass. Apple is one of the most widely owned stocks in the market. A lot of mutual fund companies buy it for its window dressing effect as much as its fundamentals. He said many mutual fund companies have 5%+ allocated to AAPL and where do they go from there? Do they increase to 7%? At some point you run out of buyers. On an even more macro side think about all the index funds out there. There is a huge amount of fixed buying and selling that goes on to match the index; an index in which Apple is the largest component. Apple may have the fundamentals but who is going to buy it? There was another run in the stock price after they initiated a dividend and AAPL was available to more restricted mutual funds, but what can they do now? Maybe its not all about the company and has a lot to do with finance as well. What happens when you are only allowed to hold 5% of a stock and it grows larger than that in your portfolio? You are forced to sell to others, many of who are at 5% or selling already.

Good post.  These other guys dont understand.
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Uccmal

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #593 on: November 09, 2012, 05:39:20 AM »
So under your logic, the market was also right when Apole was priced at $700 a month or so ago.

I did say Most, no?
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hardincap

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #594 on: November 09, 2012, 05:42:57 AM »
Funds are actually underweight AAPL relative to hits weighting in the S&P

I was talking to a friend who works for a mutual fund company about Apple recently. He made a really good point. He said when he looks at Apple the fundamentals look great, but it has reached critical mass. Apple is one of the most widely owned stocks in the market. A lot of mutual fund companies buy it for its window dressing effect as much as its fundamentals. He said many mutual fund companies have 5%+ allocated to AAPL and where do they go from there? Do they increase to 7%? At some point you run out of buyers. On an even more macro side think about all the index funds out there. There is a huge amount of fixed buying and selling that goes on to match the index; an index in which Apple is the largest component. Apple may have the fundamentals but who is going to buy it? There was another run in the stock price after they initiated a dividend and AAPL was available to more restricted mutual funds, but what can they do now? Maybe its not all about the company and has a lot to do with finance as well. What happens when you are only allowed to hold 5% of a stock and it grows larger than that in your portfolio? You are forced to sell to others, many of who are at 5% or selling already.

Good post.  These other guys dont understand.

hardincap

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #595 on: November 09, 2012, 05:45:19 AM »
so when was the market correct "most" of the time on AAPL?

AAPL it has been trading at pe of 15 or more for the last decade, with the exception of the past 1-2 years. Yet its profit margins have consistently increased, and are almost triple what it was in 2005

So under your logic, the market was also right when Apole was priced at $700 a month or so ago.

I did say Most, no?
« Last Edit: November 09, 2012, 05:48:32 AM by hardincap »

Kraven

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #596 on: November 09, 2012, 05:49:03 AM »
hardincap, go ahead and make your 20% on Apple.

My long term record speaks for itself.

Long Bac, ffh, aig, wfc, ssw, rbs.pr.p

Short nothing

Al, you make good points.  I'm about as far from a tech guy as one could find.  I don't understand it and don't pretend to.  But you made a good point about being there when Windows 95 came out.  I think the problem is one of history.  Many on the board are not old enough to have a sense of history.  They came of age when Apple was king and Steve Jobs shit golden nuggets.  Apples products are phenomenal.  They are fantastic consumer products.  But there was a time, not so long ago, although too long for many on the board, when Apple was a punchline.  They almost went under.  So when the Iphone 53 and Ipad 48 runs its course, what comes next?  Who will develop that next great consumer product?  Do people remember Colecovision?  The Commodore 64?  The Motorola Razr?  I remember being at work in the 90s at some point and a guy pulled out a new Razr flip phone.  It was like God delivering the 10 commandments to Moses.  It was one of the best things that anyone had ever seen.  Things in the consumer world change quickly.  Time will tell if Apple is up to the challenge.  I can't think of anyone yet that has been, but that doesn't mean they won't.
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jeffmori7

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #597 on: November 09, 2012, 05:49:21 AM »
Good point Ross.

I was long Apple, but started to get uncomfortable at 700$, wanted to reduced my position, but unfortunately, I waited a bit too long and I finally didn't sell any. Anyway, I think the valuation is quite more reasonable today than two months ago (obviously..-20%!), even undervalued now. But at 700$, it was becoming a risky stock to get a 20%..I should have sold at least partially, my bad.

Anyway, I wanted to say to valueInv that is becoming very annoying your post about Apple and about other stocks. While I appreciate your insight on Apple and IT in general, you are now showing an irrational bias toward Apple..never fall in love with one stock. On the other hand, what annoyed me most I think is that you dismiss all negative comments that should help you confront your investment thesis about Apple, in the same time you are all over the board pointing any tiny little flaw about any other IT stock. What is true for other investments stay true for Apple, you can not try to demolish anything with arguments about insignificant details except for Apple where you argue against everyone with support from any little details like local newspaper story on one big lineup or stuff like that.

Anyway, it's nothing against you, but please, just keep some respect for the people you argue with, talk about facts, like you prefer, and stay away form personal attack! But don't be insulted by my comments, I just want you to keep posting here about everything, but in a way that we will all benefit from it and from your knowledge.

Ok..back to Apple, valueInv, what could lead you to think you should start to sell Apple instead of buying?

hardincap

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #598 on: November 09, 2012, 05:50:27 AM »
Apple was struggling in the early 2000s. I think most people on this board are old enough to remember that :)

hardincap, go ahead and make your 20% on Apple.

My long term record speaks for itself.

Long Bac, ffh, aig, wfc, ssw, rbs.pr.p

Short nothing

Al, you make good points.  I'm about as far from a tech guy as one could find.  I don't understand it and don't pretend to.  But you made a good point about being there when Windows 95 came out.  I think the problem is one of history.  Many on the board are not old enough to have a sense of history.  They came of age when Apple was king and Steve Jobs shit golden nuggets.  Apples products are phenomenal.  They are fantastic consumer products.  But there was a time, not so long ago, although too long for many on the board, when Apple was a punchline.  They almost went under.  So when the Iphone 53 and Ipad 48 runs its course, what comes next?  Who will develop that next great consumer product?  Do people remember Colecovision?  The Commodore 64?  The Motorola Razr?  I remember being at work in the 90s at some point and a guy pulled out a new Razr flip phone.  It was like God delivering the 10 commandments to Moses.  It was one of the best things that anyone had ever seen.  Things in the consumer world change quickly.  Time will tell if Apple is up to the challenge.  I can't think of anyone yet that has been, but that doesn't mean they won't.

hyten1

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Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Reply #599 on: November 09, 2012, 05:54:23 AM »
all this apple talk is interesting

i was just pondering, what if MSFT gets some of that vertical integrated action that AAPL gets

AAPL is enourmously profitable

MSFT is profitable, if they can do what aapl did, even if at 90% successful (surface profit margin and similar devices, ie. xbox surface) msft will be very compelling.

hy