Author Topic: ADS - Alliance Data Systems  (Read 94366 times)

LowIQinvestor

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 599
Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #90 on: November 15, 2018, 12:18:14 PM »
Oh and L Brands ( ADS' largest customer - 10%) is starting to turn the corner on more positive SSS.

Doesn't hurt

http://investors.lb.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=94854&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2376182


vince

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 463
Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #91 on: November 15, 2018, 12:37:53 PM »
The one from December 27th 2017?

KCLarkin

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1681
Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #92 on: November 15, 2018, 12:41:38 PM »
Sept 28, 2018

vince

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 463
Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #93 on: November 15, 2018, 01:05:53 PM »
Thanks again

vince

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 463
Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #94 on: November 15, 2018, 01:07:47 PM »
 Guys I am really trying to put a value on the 2 businesses that they might sell but havent had the time to research comparables and I dont follow those types of businesses.  Anyone here that can shed some light on what these things are worth?

flesh

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 320
Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #95 on: November 15, 2018, 01:08:42 PM »
SoTp, Assuming epsilon sells (not saying it will) at 9x ebitda ttm and Loyaltyone/Brand loyalty at 6x ebitda ttm adding low double digit growth for card services plus card services NTM fcf, Card services today is selling at 3x ev/ebitda and 5.5 NTM fcf.


vince

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 463
Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #96 on: November 15, 2018, 01:14:09 PM »
SoTp, Assuming epsilon sells (not saying it will) at 9x ebitda ttm and Loyaltyone/Brand loyalty at 6x ebitda ttm adding low double digit growth for card services plus card services NTM fcf, Card services today is selling at 3x ev/ebitda and 5.5 NTM fcf.

What are you doing with the debt? Keeping it with ADS stub? Is that appropriate?

flesh

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 320
Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #97 on: November 15, 2018, 01:17:48 PM »
SoTp, Assuming epsilon sells (not saying it will) at 9x ebitda ttm and Loyaltyone/Brand loyalty at 6x ebitda ttm adding low double digit growth for card services plus card services NTM fcf, Card services today is selling at 3x ev/ebitda and 5.5 NTM fcf.

What are you doing with the debt? Keeping it with ADS stub? Is that appropriate?

I am leaving all debt with Card Services stub. Not sure what's appropriate but leaving it with the stub is more not less conservative for a napkin SOTP.

vince

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 463
Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #98 on: November 15, 2018, 01:20:18 PM »
SoTp, Assuming epsilon sells (not saying it will) at 9x ebitda ttm and Loyaltyone/Brand loyalty at 6x ebitda ttm adding low double digit growth for card services plus card services NTM fcf, Card services today is selling at 3x ev/ebitda and 5.5 NTM fcf.

What are you doing with the debt? Keeping it with ADS stub? Is that appropriate?

I am leaving all debt with Card Services stub. Not sure what's appropriate but leaving it with the stub is more not less conservative for a napkin SOTP.

Dont want to bust your chops but how is the valuation more conservative by keeping debt at ADS?

vince

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 463
Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #99 on: November 15, 2018, 01:25:48 PM »
I hold a large position because I like stuff that is trading at 10 times fcf or less and growing, and where the business is sticky, defensible.  I want to make it even larger but am hesitant because I just have no idea what the stub is going to look like.  This mgmt has driven me crazy with their info sharing