Categorically it's easy to see ADS is cheap today - the whole short-term voting machine of the market has taken it & many other financials down in '18. My guess is over course of 2019 earnings will prove stable and, with buybacks, will hover back to $200-$275. One caveat is if you price-in consumer-led recession. Example - today's 6% reserving in "normal economy" (per mgmt) goes to wherever you think is necessary (8%-10%?) - that would put shares lower - but some of that is being priced-in here ($175-$180).
My comment is to just be careful using "historical multiples" from abnormal periods. Comment above mine references 5 PE in '08-'09 and $120 floor (I don't know if 5 PE is true...taking word for it). Late 2008 to early 2009 was a highly unusual stock price environment, when businesses were trading dirt cheap, thus I would not use that time period as a useful "floor." Likewise, if analyzing Microsoft or Cisco today, I wouldn't use late 1990's tech bubble multiples to justify a ceiling (unless you're a "financial advisor" trying to earn commission - joking).
