Author Topic: ADS - Alliance Data Systems  (Read 95324 times)

abitofvalue

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Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #270 on: April 14, 2019, 08:50:37 AM »
ADS is talking about a $3.5B after-tax cash amount... after the debt paydown they planned thats $1.6B towards repurchases. I suspect many were hoping for more..


kab60

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Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #271 on: April 14, 2019, 11:32:51 AM »
I'm fine with the price. I was afraid it could fall apart due to weak Epsilon results. One could always want more but they're selling a no growth asset for 10xebitda. Delever, buyback and then put the next asset up for sale. 1,6b towards buybacks post close in Q3 along with FCF along the way should be enough to retire 20-25 pct. of shares outstanding. Hopefully the share price stays put or falls.

mwtorock

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Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #272 on: April 15, 2019, 06:33:57 AM »
well the price is not really cheering. my estimate was 3.6B -4.8B, and it landed on the low end... let 's cut debt and buy back stocks and put the whole company to the block for sale (maybe after spin off LoyaltyOne).

I still like spin off more than asset sales. I mean look at the tax bill on this...

AzCactus

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Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #273 on: April 15, 2019, 08:27:52 AM »
Seems like the market was expecting a higher price as well.  Looks like the stock is down big early this morning. 

frommi

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Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #274 on: April 15, 2019, 08:38:47 AM »
Is there a way to estimate how much of the book value belongs to Epsilon? (I want to estimate how book value looks like after the transaction)
« Last Edit: April 15, 2019, 08:51:01 AM by frommi »

Broeb22

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Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #275 on: April 15, 2019, 09:02:17 AM »
Tough to find...I did find nearly 3.9 billion in goodwill attributed to Epsilon and Conversant (p.44), both of which were part of the Epsilon deal (I think). So shareholder's equity related to Epsilon is at least that much...

Spekulatius

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Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #276 on: April 15, 2019, 09:30:50 AM »
Is there a way to estimate how much of the book value belongs to Epsilon? (I want to estimate how book value looks like after the transaction)

Why does it matter? Nobody buys this stock for its book value.
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writser

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Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #277 on: April 15, 2019, 09:51:22 AM »
Is there a way to estimate how much of the book value belongs to Epsilon? (I want to estimate how book value looks like after the transaction)

Why does it matter? Nobody buys this stock for its book value.

I have nothing to add.
When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid.

frommi

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Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #278 on: April 15, 2019, 10:06:14 AM »
Is there a way to estimate how much of the book value belongs to Epsilon? (I want to estimate how book value looks like after the transaction)

Why does it matter? Nobody buys this stock for its book value.

After selling Epsilon it is just a "normal" financial stock, and as such i value it on book value and RoE. I doubt that they get a higher RoE than SYF for example on the remaining book value. But that is just my way of thinking.

KCLarkin

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Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Reply #279 on: April 15, 2019, 10:44:44 AM »
After selling Epsilon it is just a "normal" financial stock, and as such i value it on book value and RoE. I doubt that they get a higher RoE than SYF for example on the remaining book value. But that is just my way of thinking.

Ignoring book value for a second (since this will get messy with the transactions and buybacks) and ignoring that most people here have little faith left in management -- they seem confident they can earn 30% ROE on their core and growth portfolio. So why do you doubt they will get a higher ROE than SYF?