Did I hear on the call that with a 25% decrease in sales for a full year plus 10% charge off rate for a full year they are cash flow positive?
9% was the charge off rate in the great recession as well and only that high for 2 months?
You believe their guidance?
Yep, that's what they said.
As for believing their guidance - it seems to square pretty well with the numbers.
CEO is 45 days into the job, there's no need for him to put unneccessary pressure on himself and he had every incentive to kitchen sink. He basically said they're in a better situation than during the GFC - he'd look pretty moronic if they go belly up in a short time.
Also an interesting point on how Air Miles is very cash generative in the current environment, since nobody redeems points for flights but still collect them. Clearly makes sense.
