Author Topic: TWC.TO - TWC Enterprises  (Read 6177 times)

Maple Fun

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Re: TWC.TO - TWC Enterprises
« Reply #10 on: January 26, 2018, 07:56:22 PM »
It's an amortized loan which means they are paying off the principle gradually, then they can refinance at a lower rate. The interest saved will go to shareholders.

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Why do you think this is a tailwind? Due to the tax shield from amortization?

In general, such high debt levels frightens me as an investor.

I hope the spin off the RR. Would be an interesting case then, but they would probably load the new entity up with debt anyway...
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cameronfen

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Re: TWC.TO - TWC Enterprises
« Reply #11 on: January 28, 2018, 02:39:29 PM »
I don't know if this is Rai's endgame, but from google searches, it costs about 5 million to buy a golf course.  Maybe these courses are in the middle of nowhere I don't know.  To be safe let us say it costs 10 million to buy one.  Each golf course has 100-200 acres of land.  Call it 150.  At 150 acres, the cost per acre is about 70k an acre, which is way cheaper land price in the suburbs than buying land outright (see here for Oakville: https://www.point2homes.com/CA/Land-For-Sale/ON/Oakville.html).  Additionally, you have a lot of contiguous space which goes for a premium.  If you want to develop, of course, you have to deal with problematic zoning and concerned citizens who wouldn't approve of developing golf courses into office and residential space, however even if you can't develop you recoup the costs by running the golf course.  If you do redevelop the course you make a boatload of money.  If this is his end game it could go pretty well IMO and based on only quick research. 

bizaro86

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Re: TWC.TO - TWC Enterprises
« Reply #12 on: January 28, 2018, 03:06:03 PM »
Tough call there. I read an interview of him years ago where he spent the whole time talking about how much he loves golf and golfing.

On the other hand, if I wanted a sharp elbows partner to do land development, he would be pretty high on my list. Plus, he has filed for a few already...

Maple Fun

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Re: TWC.TO - TWC Enterprises
« Reply #13 on: February 09, 2018, 10:04:20 PM »
A quick back of envelop calculation:

NOI (R&P)   30.4   White Pass
CAP   6.00%   
EV (R&P)   506.67   
NOI(GOLF)   32.3   
CAP   10%   
EV(GOLF)   323.00   
NOI(CORP)   -3   Corporate overhead
CAP   5%   
EV(CORP)   -60   
EV   769.67   
Net Borrowing   286.4   
Equity   483.27   
SHROUT   27.3   
TP    17.70   White Pass + Golf
Aurora   130.452   
AuroraPS   4.78   Aurora
TP   22.48   White Pass + Golf + Aurora

Sensitivity Test based on different CAP rate:

      White Pass
      5.0%   5.5%   6.0%   6.5%   7.0%
GOLF   8%   29.15   27.13   25.44   24.01   22.79
   9%   27.51   25.48   23.80   22.37   21.14
   10%   26.19   24.17   22.48   21.05   19.83
   11%   25.12   23.09   21.40   19.98   18.75
   12%   24.22   22.20   20.51   19.08   17.86


Maple Fun

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Re: TWC.TO - TWC Enterprises
« Reply #14 on: June 07, 2018, 07:28:46 AM »
TWC Enterprises Limited Announces Plans to Divest White Pass & Yukon Route to Carnival Corporation & plc

https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=6119216289344281&qm_symbol=TWC

Looks like a fair deal to both sides

Okonomen

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Re: TWC.TO - TWC Enterprises
« Reply #15 on: June 07, 2018, 10:04:05 AM »
Terrible!! I wanted shares in the railway biz : (

Maple Fun

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Re: TWC.TO - TWC Enterprises
« Reply #16 on: April 22, 2019, 05:37:50 PM »
The stock rose by around 25% since the OP. Given the uncertainty around Glen Abby and other proposed projects, I figured it is time to move on?

sculpin

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Re: TWC.TO - TWC Enterprises
« Reply #17 on: April 23, 2019, 09:15:08 AM »
I would think selling TWC right now would be quite premature. My estimates of potential SOTP value over the longer term. DYODD...

Liquid assets

Cash         $5.60/share
Carnival   $1.00/share

Golf ops Clublink

$35mm EBITDA @ 8 X  = $280mm
or $10.25/share

Land development potential

Glen Abbey $500mm or $18.40/share
Kanata $160mm or $6/share
Highland $70mm $2.50/share
Woodlands $50mm $2/share
Rattlesnake $150mm $5.50/share
Huntsville $16mm $0.50/share
Total Land  $946mm $34.90/share

Total Potential Asset Value  $51.75
Less LT debt $132mm or $4.75
Net Potential Equity Value Per TWC Share $47.00

Maple Fun

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Re: TWC.TO - TWC Enterprises
« Reply #18 on: April 23, 2019, 10:39:16 AM »
 :P
Wow, really a blue-sky scenario imo...

I would think selling TWC right now would be quite premature. My estimates of potential SOTP value over the longer term. DYODD...

Liquid assets

Cash         $5.60/share
Carnival   $1.00/share

Golf ops Clublink

$35mm EBITDA @ 8 X  = $280mm
or $10.25/share

Land development potential

Glen Abbey $500mm or $18.40/share
Kanata $160mm or $6/share
Highland $70mm $2.50/share
Woodlands $50mm $2/share
Rattlesnake $150mm $5.50/share
Huntsville $16mm $0.50/share
Total Land  $946mm $34.90/share

Total Potential Asset Value  $51.75
Less LT debt $132mm or $4.75
Net Potential Equity Value Per TWC Share $47.00

bizaro86

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Re: TWC.TO - TWC Enterprises
« Reply #19 on: April 23, 2019, 12:04:53 PM »
Aside from assuming their blue sky developments work out (which is less than a 100% chance of success), I think 8x is a bit high for the golf. IIRC club Corp went for about that multiple in a takeover, and it was US based with better scale and a takeover premium.

The biggest issue is that if you assume they sell the best golf courses, you should probably also assume that they end up with way less golf ebitda. They won't get the earnings from glen abbey et al after they develop/sell the land.

This could still be a great deal, and I'd glen abbey goes through it probably is, but I think that estimate is probably aggressive.