Author Topic: BABA - Alibaba  (Read 74842 times)

yadayada

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #30 on: April 24, 2014, 09:21:36 AM »
How do you know that? I googled and looked in their 10k but couldnt find anything about youtube profits.

Another interesting note is that Weibo was actually already making a profit in Q4 last year.


PatientCheetah

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #31 on: April 24, 2014, 03:29:51 PM »
How do you know that? I googled and looked in their 10k but couldnt find anything about youtube profits.

Another interesting note is that Weibo was actually already making a profit in Q4 last year.

Watch the latest episode of "this week in startups" on youtube
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PatientCheetah

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #32 on: April 24, 2014, 06:54:06 PM »
is there any % of income from alibaba reflected in softbank's figures? They will do 4-6 billion$ in income this year (alibaba). I dont think a 35x multiple is unreasonable for the ipo here. a 33% stake would imply roughly 57 billion$.

Softbank did 3 billion $ in net income, so you pay about 33 billion for the remaining business. Which seems pretty cheap.

If you value softbank at 15x earnings, then your getting alibaba for between 22-33x earnings. Which seems really cheap for a business like that (or at least 22x earnings is). You have serious growth prospects, really high return on capital and a big moat.

sina holds a 1% stake. Ticker is SINA. They bought 50 million$ in octobre 2011. So i assume that is 1%? so that is worth north of 1 billion. They also hold 100 million $ worth of Youku Tudou shares, apparantly the chinese youtube?

And they did 45 million in net income in 2013, and are growing. revenue grew 25% YoY, but gross profit grew 40%. and there seems to be some leverage there. So you could argue that their core business is worth more then 10x earnings?

Anyone have an opinion on Sina?

Where did you find information about Sina's equity holding in other public trade securities? Sina down over 5% due to government investigation about porngraphy. Current market value is about sum of cash and Weibo stake.

The danger is Weibo stake not worth its valuation. Maybe a safer way to own Sina and short Weibo. I can't find borrows from my broker. Anyone see glaring flaw in the idea?
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Stevieoopsie

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #33 on: April 25, 2014, 05:36:45 AM »
If you are looking for Chinese internet sum-of-parts ideas, SOHU is much cheaper than SINA.

yadayada

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #34 on: April 25, 2014, 05:47:17 AM »
How do you know that? I googled and looked in their 10k but couldnt find anything about youtube profits.

Another interesting note is that Weibo was actually already making a profit in Q4 last year.

Watch the latest episode of "this week in startups" on youtube

wouldnt it be smart then to own the chinese youtube? I mean china is much larger, so 6-7 billion in net income might not be crazy 6-7 years from now? That would make it like a 15-20 bagger over that time? They are only valued at 5 billion$ now.

wbr

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #35 on: April 25, 2014, 06:16:13 AM »
How do you know that? I googled and looked in their 10k but couldnt find anything about youtube profits.

Another interesting note is that Weibo was actually already making a profit in Q4 last year.

Watch the latest episode of "this week in startups" on youtube

wouldnt it be smart then to own the chinese youtube? I mean china is much larger, so 6-7 billion in net income might not be crazy 6-7 years from now? That would make it like a 15-20 bagger over that time? They are only valued at 5 billion$ now.

Youtube is the clear leader in a market with winner-takes-all characteristics and that makes it a great asset. Facebook is successful and Twitter will be successful because they are the first movers with no clear competition. In China those services are copied by entrepreneurs and then you usually end up with a bunch of competitiors instaed of a clear leader. Different platforms are competing for the market and in the end one winner will emerge and the other companies are going to vanish.
I'd rather own Baidu or Tencent who have deep pockets to support their platforms and make them come out on top in the different markets against Yoku Todou, Renren and even Weibo (they would be better off if Alibaba owned 100%). It isnt a coincidence that Youtube became the leader and not some independent video platform.

PatientCheetah

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #36 on: April 25, 2014, 06:25:23 AM »
How do you know that? I googled and looked in their 10k but couldnt find anything about youtube profits.

Another interesting note is that Weibo was actually already making a profit in Q4 last year.

Watch the latest episode of "this week in startups" on youtube

wouldnt it be smart then to own the chinese youtube? I mean china is much larger, so 6-7 billion in net income might not be crazy 6-7 years from now? That would make it like a 15-20 bagger over that time? They are only valued at 5 billion$ now.

Youtube is the clear leader in a market with winner-takes-all characteristics and that makes it a great asset. Facebook is successful and Twitter will be successful because they are the first movers with no clear competition. In China those services are copied by entrepreneurs and then you usually end up with a bunch of competitiors instaed of a clear leader. Different platforms are competing for the market and in the end one winner will emerge and the other companies are going to vanish.
I'd rather own Baidu or Tencent who have deep pockets to support their platforms and make them come out on top in the different markets against Yoku Todou, Renren and even Weibo (they would be better off if Alibaba owned 100%). It isnt a coincidence that Youtube became the leader and not some independent video platform.

The more I researched the more I became convinced that Weibo is now a #2. WeChat has come a long way and is now becoming the dominating platform of everything - it took all the best ideas from the U.S. - uber, facebook, twitter, etc.
risk as little as possible until all the stars have aligned

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Stevieoopsie

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #37 on: April 25, 2014, 07:08:37 AM »
Yoku is not China's Youtube. The online video business in China is very fragmented and no player has nearly the same level of dominance that Youtube enjoys in the U.S.

The industry is viewed by many of the big internet conglomerates as one of the few areas on the internet where it's not yet too late to join the game given the fragmentation and companies are investing heavily in proprietary content to take market share away from Yoku. SOHU's video business, for example, is no.2 in China and that business has sunk hundreds of $millions in high quality content.

Consumer behavior in video content distribution in China is different too. People value high-quality, programmed content a lot more highly than the stuff on Youtube so the network effect on these video platforms is not that strong.

yadayada

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #38 on: April 25, 2014, 07:20:48 AM »
Youku tudou is a clear leader in user uploaded video's right? And they have the rights for a lot of popular mainstream american shows. So it seems like apples and oranges?

PatientCheetah

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #39 on: April 25, 2014, 07:58:56 AM »
Not comparable, youtube splits 45/55 with content owners - charge expensive toll without having to put down anything for the content. Youku is more comparable to netflix, not a FCF machine - only makes sense from a M&A angle.
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