Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1927115 times)

goldfinger

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #220 on: June 12, 2011, 06:32:22 PM »

We own a small position in Alderon...and yes still picking away at Altius....

Dazel.

Dazel,

October is approaching. Any idea what the possible outcomes with NLRC are?


Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #221 on: June 13, 2011, 07:19:30 AM »


I am pretty sure that it expires in Oct 2012...as per latest financial report...of course I would love to
see something happen sooner rather than later there. I will check it.

Dazel.

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #222 on: June 13, 2011, 07:34:35 AM »


NLRC does expire Oct 2011....sorry for the brain cramp...as I have said I value it at 0...it does act as a out of the money call option because if there is any new positive development it would be extremely positive frot he company. As we all know Brian Dalton has worked very hard here hopeflly he can pull something off...we know from the finacial reports that they are negotiating with "china and state interests" these parties would not be alone in my opinion...likley they would partner with a major refiner...and they could do one off trades on refined oil in other parts of the world that are closer to China.
This is speculation on our part.

Dazel.





goldfinger

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #223 on: June 13, 2011, 04:42:16 PM »


NLRC does expire Oct 2011....sorry for the brain cramp...as I have said I value it at 0...it does act as a out of the money call option because if there is any new positive development it would be extremely positive frot he company. As we all know Brian Dalton has worked very hard here hopeflly he can pull something off...we know from the finacial reports that they are negotiating with "china and state interests" these parties would not be alone in my opinion...likley they would partner with a major refiner...and they could do one off trades on refined oil in other parts of the world that are closer to China.
This is speculation on our part.

Dazel.






Everybody makes mistakes but the fact that Altius invested so much money in this one doesn't make you raise some questions on how they approach certain types of investments?

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #224 on: June 13, 2011, 05:14:20 PM »

Goldfinger.....at the time the market was pricing in a huge equity component (for nlrc) to their valuations on NLRC alone. They were
partnered with the who's who of the european investment community in the biggest private equity financings of alltime. Yes, I would say they got caught up and then caught by the financial crisis. The truth is if that did not happen we would have never got involved in Altius.. as we would not have invested in that valuation or anything close to it.
That is why 0.
If anything the process scared the crap out of them...they could have deployed way more capital as they were loaded with cash in 2009. They were aggressive in IRC and the buy back but conservative by holding lots of cash. They have no debt which to us may be "too conservative"...we would not be upset to see them issues long term debt at these rates and buy back another 10% of the float. Why? it's the best investment they could make right now. so the long answer is no I am not worried...if anything they are too conservative here. I would assume they would be in a quiet period before earnigs in the next couple of weeks. But I would expect buy backs if we are trading at these levels at that point.

Altius is the only secured creditor of NLRC so they were not that stupid...they get paid first...I do not know if there is any cash left at NLRC...but I am assuming their is some...Altius should get it...if nothing happens...the entire invesment has been written off to 0...so any money recovered would be a bonus.



If Brian Dalton can put something together even with SNC Lavalin..it would be extremely positive and the market values the whole company at less than it's cash and liquid investments right now  so it really would be something if he could pull it off.
like we said an "out of the money" call option.
Dazel

goldfinger

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #225 on: June 13, 2011, 07:17:34 PM »

Goldfinger.....at the time the market was pricing in a huge equity component (for nlrc) to their valuations on NLRC alone. They were
partnered with the who's who of the european investment community in the biggest private equity financings of alltime. Yes, I would say they got caught up and then caught by the financial crisis. The truth is if that did not happen we would have never got involved in Altius.. as we would not have invested in that valuation or anything close to it.
That is why 0.
If anything the process scared the crap out of them...they could have deployed way more capital as they were loaded with cash in 2009. They were aggressive in IRC and the buy back but conservative by holding lots of cash. They have no debt which to us may be "too conservative"...we would not be upset to see them issues long term debt at these rates and buy back another 10% of the float. Why? it's the best investment they could make right now. so the long answer is no I am not worried...if anything they are too conservative here. I would assume they would be in a quiet period before earnigs in the next couple of weeks. But I would expect buy backs if we are trading at these levels at that point.

Altius is the only secured creditor of NLRC so they were not that stupid...they get paid first...I do not know if there is any cash left at NLRC...but I am assuming their is some...Altius should get it...if nothing happens...the entire invesment has been written off to 0...so any money recovered would be a bonus.



If Brian Dalton can put something together even with SNC Lavalin..it would be extremely positive and the market values the whole company at less than it's cash and liquid investments right now  so it really would be something if he could pull it off.
like we said an "out of the money" call option.
Dazel

Thanks Dazel. Thinking in the same lines as you but always informative to be the devil's advocate!
I believe they will be much bigger soon too!

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #226 on: June 14, 2011, 03:41:14 AM »

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #227 on: June 14, 2011, 06:15:23 AM »

I know there are some Millrock holders here:insider buying

http://canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=MRO

goldfinger

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #228 on: June 17, 2011, 01:45:02 AM »
Australian central bank, Glencore, Rio-Tinto and others seem to believe that even though China is and will slow down, certain commodities like iron ore will still see very strong demand from there for the foreseeable future.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011\06\16\story_16-6-2011_pg5_28


goldfinger

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #229 on: June 17, 2011, 01:53:19 AM »
China has planned lots of civil works (high speed rail system, affordable housing etc...) and this should keep on adding demand in the iron ore market:
http://www.pr-inside.com/china-investments-in-real-estate-and-r2659339.htm