Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1782078 times)

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #480 on: January 12, 2012, 11:54:56 AM »


Anyone who does not want to read the Grantham piece....the 1 in 2.2 million chance in iron ore reversing it's current trend of pricing in in "exhibit 4" from the post above.

Here is where we are today
http://www.mbironoreindex.com/

Dazel.


Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #481 on: January 12, 2012, 12:21:40 PM »
http://www.alderonironore.com/_resources/news/2012-01-12-NewsRelease.pdf

Liberty,

If you read more into it...alder on has brought on a specific shareholder with deep pockets....likely with an eye for The future. With in the agreement Liberty llc (is this your hold co.!)...has first option on any other financing and alder on has the right to purchase or to  find a purchaser of  any shares Liberty wants to sell. They have secured a Long term partner....not speculators. I agree $2.67 is low but it looks like the right color of money.

Dazel.

value-is-what-you-get

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #482 on: January 12, 2012, 12:33:54 PM »
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=240

Question:  If iron ore prices collapses from here, how should one think about where the downside is?

from the Alderon site:

•Total operating cost (excluding royalties) of US$44.87/tonne concentrate (averaged over the life of mine)

Now this doesn't include amortizing about $67 million a year for the initial Capital expense of the concentrator etc which adds about $8.38/tonne so that brings it up to $53.25/tonne - call it $60 / tonne to justify operating for Alderon.  This is all based on stated run rate of 8 million tonnes a year for 15 years.

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #483 on: January 12, 2012, 12:45:04 PM »
http://www.alderonironore.com/_resources/news/2012-01-12-NewsRelease.pdf

Liberty,

If you read more into it...alder on has brought on a specific shareholder with deep pockets....likely with an eye for The future. With in the agreement Liberty llc (is this your hold co.!)...has first option on any other financing and alder on has the right to purchase or to  find a purchaser of  any shares Liberty wants to sell. They have secured a Long term partner....not speculators. I agree $2.67 is low but it looks like the right color of money.

Dazel.

Ha! I wish I knew more about Liberty llc, actually. But if they are a quality partner with deep pockets (and I'm sure Alderon-Altius management would settle for nothing less), then I'm happy about it. The more people have a stake in getting Kami to production, the better.

Price is based on the average over a period of time, and it could have turned out much worse if ADV hadn't climbed back up.

Right now I'm more concerned about them maximizing the probability of getting Kami to commercial production than anything else. It would suck if they focused on minimizing dilution and missed a chance of going for production; winning a battle that costs you the war..
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #484 on: January 12, 2012, 01:13:40 PM »
Some commentary about the recent developments at ADV:

http://www.grandich.com/2012/01/grandich-client-alderon-iron-ore/
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #485 on: January 12, 2012, 01:28:06 PM »


Liberty LLC.....has a giant parent...I would say that financing looks good..off to the races...I was thinking Leucadia or Fairfax might be interesting partners to bring in bigger partners... not a fortune 100 company from the start. Daddy is number 82 on the list just ahead of DuPont....low interest rates are going to help a lot of different industries as insurance and mutual funds look for returns...I hope that Alderon becomes a nice bond like investment for them. It appears that Alderon is higher profile than I thought. That will give them greater bargaining power when they are Doing contracts etc...these guys are good.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500/2011/full_list/

Dazel.

HJ

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #486 on: January 13, 2012, 07:58:13 AM »


Hj,

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/05/02/207994/grantham-must-read-time-to-wake-up-days-of-abundant-resources-and-falling-prices-are-over-forever/


Grantham comes up with a 1 in 2.2 million chance that iron ore will reverse it's trend. I like those odds..
Besides you ask what is the down side sarcastically....not much considering none of what has been discussed is in the stock price. If we were at $25 where we should be I would be worried about
 downside risks to the 1 in 2.2 millin chance we reverse course.

So actually if we crash as you say...our downside is we pick up everything for 10 cents on the dollar with our quarter of a billion in cash.

Dazel

Wasn't being sarcastic at all, and wasn't saying that it necessarily will crash either.  Just want to understand the circumstance under which prices would get below their production cost, since it was there not that long ago.  Wondering if there's a way to see where they are on the global production cost curve vs. demand.

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #487 on: January 13, 2012, 01:20:22 PM »


Hj,


Fair enough....there is a reason why the price is so high...unlike copper and oil....the market is not made up of speculators...the prices I quote are negotiated and they fluctuate on buying and supply. India has put an export tariff on for a reason...the need the steel at home. China and India are the steel story it is as simple as that. If the rest of the world builds (keystone pipeline etc) than there will be less supply....if read the Grantham report...china is almost 50%. Those are not houses...they are  nuclear plants, high speed rail, coal plants etc....housing uses copper not steel.

Dazel.

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #488 on: January 16, 2012, 07:09:57 PM »
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=Pdn.to&ql=1

We had considered approaching Altius managment about taking a significant stake in Paladin Energy. We thought as we expressed here that uranium stocks were very very cheap. It would not have been that expensive to take a big enough position to have some influence on the Michelin project. They have convertibles  due in 2013 and2014... So we did not pursue it...as it turns out in the short term it would have been a great investment. Uranium stocks have rebounded sharply from a terrible 2011.

Altius has been associated closely with uranium because of its incredible success at Aurora. Altius' stock was hit very hard after the tsunami last year...With moratorium lifted and uranium stocks gaining favor again it is reasonable to believe they will join in this rally as they were treated like the other uranium stocks last spring. Their uranium holdings and royalty at the Michelin plant are
substantial.

Dazel

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #489 on: January 17, 2012, 01:49:19 PM »
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Paladin-Energy-Ltd-Quarterly-ccn-3173198448.html?x=0


Paladin highlights the moratorium lifted in Labrador and calls  the michelin project  "world class"...the volume in their shares was 10 times normal today on their other production success.

Dazel