Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1791111 times)

Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11551
  • twitter.com/libertyRPF
    • twitter.com/libertyRPF
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #590 on: April 10, 2012, 08:44:27 AM »
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen


Dazel

  • Guest
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #591 on: April 10, 2012, 11:50:19 AM »

bathtime

  • Lifetime Member
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 198
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #592 on: April 11, 2012, 08:52:45 AM »

naboo

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 107
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #593 on: April 11, 2012, 11:22:42 AM »
Is now the best time to sell alderon? why not wait till the beingging of the production?

Globe and Mail article on Alderon as possible takeover candidate:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/alderons-pedigree-makes-it-a-takeover-target/article2397582/
*****  Every Penny Counts *****

Dazel

  • Guest
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #594 on: April 11, 2012, 02:07:48 PM »

They will not be selling here...if it were to triple like the article suggested they would be sellers...the more likely scenario is they sell at the $6 level to a producer that assures them the quickest production.

As I have said the royalty is worth more than all Altius right now. The market does not care right now...and we are fine with that...it is coming together as we expected.

Dazel

Ross812

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 830
  • Move over KY
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #595 on: April 12, 2012, 06:21:50 AM »
I've been pouring over Altius trying to get more comfortable with them before I increase the size of my position. I found an interesting blog that discussed Altius's involvement with the Lower Churchill Hydro Royalty, and the NLRC. The post draws a lot of connections showing Altius's government connections. The post concludes with the author buying shares in Altius, so don't let the author's tone get to you too early.

http://rocksolidpolitics.blogspot.com/search/label/Altius

I am trying to invert and find a reason to short Altius before buying any more. Has anyone else tried this. Have you come up with anything? Was the NLRC blowup the reason the stock price fell? I'm looking for anything that could derail this investment. Right now, it seems the company is riding on Alderon. Are they being discounted because half their market cap is invested in a junior miner?
96% Fixed Income CDs, Muni, Corporate Debt - 4% SPX Options

Dazel

  • Guest
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #596 on: April 12, 2012, 08:30:26 AM »


Ross182,


I would love to see a short thesis but more importantly I would love to see a large short percentage literally...an illiquid stock sometimes acts strangely. A short would have had it's way with Altius shares as they would have been able to move the price at will. I know you are doing an exercise...just saying a squeeze would be deadly for a short...

Altius position in Alderon is $32mx $3.50...$112m.  A little over one third market cap...

Dazel.

Ross812

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 830
  • Move over KY
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #597 on: April 12, 2012, 09:25:22 AM »
Dazel,

I've owned Altius since August of 2010 after I read your posts and ran the numbers. It has stayed about a 5% position which is pretty typical if I haven't spent the time to become really comfortable with it. I've just kept up with your commentary and read reports from the company. I'm about 20% cash right now and have another 20% coming if Jef stays above 17 on options expiration.
I really need a place to put the cash and Altius looks to be the cheapest thing I'm watching right now. It seems to be a great place to put some money, but I need to understand it better. Thus, getting to know it from the other side of the trade. I'll post if I find anything else interesting. So far, other that macro problems, I haven't turned up anything.

You're right on the Alderon position. I was typing faster than I was thinking. Alderon makes up a huge portion of the Altius market cap. If Alderon was backed out, Altius seems fairly valued in an ideal liquidation situation. So the margin of safety is Alderon, which seems to be a great investment so far. 
« Last Edit: April 12, 2012, 09:30:45 AM by Ross812 »
96% Fixed Income CDs, Muni, Corporate Debt - 4% SPX Options

Dazel

  • Guest
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #598 on: April 12, 2012, 12:00:22 PM »

Ross182,

It is a very important exercise you are doing...I would look at all assets individually...negatively...remeber that Alderon stock and Alderon 3% royalty are different assets...they do not effect each other unless Altius uses it's control position to secure that Alderon comes to production.

So what is Alderon stock worth?
What is the 3% royalty worth on their own?

In a negative analysis (what the market is pricing) the royalty is worth 0. You do not have to do much math in inversion because the market has already done it.



So the billion dollar question is when do you add the royalty to the value of the stock?

jjsto

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 120
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #599 on: April 13, 2012, 04:15:41 AM »
Chinese investment finally arrives.  (I guess this explains recent alderon sp movement)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-13/hebei-steel-to-spend-195-million-on-alderon-stake-ore-venture.html