Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1884353 times)

hohi

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7260 on: September 15, 2019, 06:35:57 AM »
I couldn't resist and added a few more shares.
intrinsic value is just too high

Where do you see IV? How fast do you see it growing going forward?

At least 25+ CAD, imho (realized over the full commodity cycle). I am as frustrated as all ALS shareholders over the last few years, but I am more and more comfortable with my position as cash flow increasingly trickles down as dividends. potash + low cost copper + potentially renewables are not prone to getting into trouble in case the economy implodes. ALS is building (and I would argue already has) a strong foundation for growth. Were will that come from? Who knows, and probably it'll be something nobody sees coming (like a billion dollar deal on Julienne Lake + Kami or sth.).

In short I see good upside with todays intrinsic value, a lot of optionality and not much downside (for the long-term value investor, that can sit on his butt and do nothing through decade long commodity cycles).
Cheers,
hohi.

current resource positions: ALS.TO  //  NILSY  //  IVN.TO   //   DPM.TO   //   GAZ


Williams406

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7261 on: September 16, 2019, 03:44:37 AM »
https://www.anglopacificgroup.com/labrador-iron-ore-royalty-corp-shareholding-increased-to-5-88/

Linealdin, We'll see if Altius re-purchased some LIORC of late. Anglo Pacific did. AP is approaching a 6% interest in LIORC.

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7262 on: September 16, 2019, 01:51:21 PM »
I couldn't resist and added a few more shares.
intrinsic value is just too high

Where do you see IV? How fast do you see it growing going forward?

At least 25+ CAD, imho (realized over the full commodity cycle). I am as frustrated as all ALS shareholders over the last few years, but I am more and more comfortable with my position as cash flow increasingly trickles down as dividends. potash + low cost copper + potentially renewables are not prone to getting into trouble in case the economy implodes. ALS is building (and I would argue already has) a strong foundation for growth. Were will that come from? Who knows, and probably it'll be something nobody sees coming (like a billion dollar deal on Julienne Lake + Kami or sth.).

In short I see good upside with todays intrinsic value, a lot of optionality and not much downside (for the long-term value investor, that can sit on his butt and do nothing through decade long commodity cycles).

Thanks. How do you get to that 25+ number?
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

hohi

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7263 on: September 16, 2019, 11:39:24 PM »
Quote
Thanks. How do you get to that 25+ number?

Back of the envelope:
Producing Assets $725M
- Potash 400M+ [@ 20x FCF]
- Chapada 200M+ [@ 15x FCF]
- Voiseys 30M [@ 15x FCF]
- Coal 60M [@ 5x FCF]
- Met Coal 10M [@ 3x FCF]
- 777 20M [@ 2x FCF]

Development Assets ~100M
- Gunnison 17M
- Kami 32M
- Curipamba 10M
- Mt Pick. 10M
- Renewables Business 15M+
- Lithium Royalties 10M

Exploration Assets ~80M+
- IronOre Assets (JL, Geothite etc.) 30M+
- Royalties 20M+
- Other 30M+

That would be liquidation value for me
Cheers,
hohi.

current resource positions: ALS.TO  //  NILSY  //  IVN.TO   //   DPM.TO   //   GAZ

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7264 on: September 20, 2019, 07:05:06 AM »
Quote
Thanks. How do you get to that 25+ number?

Back of the envelope:
Producing Assets $725M
- Potash 400M+ [@ 20x FCF]
- Chapada 200M+ [@ 15x FCF]
- Voiseys 30M [@ 15x FCF]
- Coal 60M [@ 5x FCF]
- Met Coal 10M [@ 3x FCF]
- 777 20M [@ 2x FCF]

Development Assets ~100M
- Gunnison 17M
- Kami 32M
- Curipamba 10M
- Mt Pick. 10M
- Renewables Business 15M+
- Lithium Royalties 10M

Exploration Assets ~80M+
- IronOre Assets (JL, Geothite etc.) 30M+
- Royalties 20M+
- Other 30M+

That would be liquidation value for me

Thanks for sharing your numbers. We can disagree on them, but at least it's clear that you didn't just make up a number out of thin air.
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

omagh

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7265 on: September 20, 2019, 08:55:40 AM »
Liberty...what's your number?  I think the guys in this thread should be "clear that you didn't just make up a number out of thin air" when fatuously disagreeing with hohi.
[ puts shoe on Liberty's foot ]

Quote
Thanks. How do you get to that 25+ number?

Back of the envelope:
Producing Assets $725M
- Potash 400M+ [@ 20x FCF]
- Chapada 200M+ [@ 15x FCF]
- Voiseys 30M [@ 15x FCF]
- Coal 60M [@ 5x FCF]
- Met Coal 10M [@ 3x FCF]
- 777 20M [@ 2x FCF]

Development Assets ~100M
- Gunnison 17M
- Kami 32M
- Curipamba 10M
- Mt Pick. 10M
- Renewables Business 15M+
- Lithium Royalties 10M

Exploration Assets ~80M+
- IronOre Assets (JL, Geothite etc.) 30M+
- Royalties 20M+
- Other 30M+

That would be liquidation value for me

Thanks for sharing your numbers. We can disagree on them, but at least it's clear that you didn't just make up a number out of thin air.

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7266 on: September 20, 2019, 11:12:42 AM »
Liberty...what's your number?  I think the guys in this thread should be "clear that you didn't just make up a number out of thin air" when fatuously disagreeing with hohi.
[ puts shoe on Liberty's foot ]

I don't have a number, I don't spend much time on things I know I don't want to own (there are gating factors and filters, once you fail one or more, no need to go that much further). I used to have a more precise value estimate years ago when I used to own the stock, though. But if you go back in this thread, I think I've written enough to make some of my issues with this company clear.

Not having a precise number doesn't mean I can't have opinions on it or on what people say about it. If I owned it and just hand-waved it that would be something else, but I don't own it and don't plan to.

I've also never made a movie or album, but I sometimes have opinions on the strong and weak points of those too. Owners of a company should want push-back to sharpen their thinking and make sure they're not missing anything, rather than an echo chamber where everybody agrees and thinks the same.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2019, 11:39:08 AM by Liberty »
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bizaro86

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7267 on: October 04, 2019, 10:38:01 PM »
It has now been 2 weeks since anyone posted to this thread, which is likely some sort of record.  Linealdin, are you ok? I feel like I might have to set up my own google news filters for ALS related information now... :(

cwericb

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7268 on: October 11, 2019, 07:03:36 AM »
I too miss Lineadin's contributions.  Has he become disenchanted with ALS? Has something happened to him - hopefully not? Does anyone here know why he has stopped posting? Perhaps his computer has died.
Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason. - Mark Twain

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7269 on: October 11, 2019, 07:46:25 AM »
He's probably just on vacation.
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen