Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1907220 times)

bizaro86

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7350 on: May 14, 2020, 10:27:38 PM »
Do you mind sharing where you found that? I couldn't get the link to work.


mikek

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7351 on: May 14, 2020, 10:44:02 PM »
https://mobile.twitter.com/campbellmccrary/status/1260306640773042176

Maybe through this link. The first 40 minutes is pretty normal stuff but the q and a was where some new stuff was. Got the feeling that the trial with the Alberta government is currently in process because he really couldn't say much at this second. Personally, don't think they will win but if they even got 25 percent of what they are trying to get it would be a big win for Altius.

New shareholder letter on May 12th also. Nothing really new on this letter but good info anyways with Covid 19 going on.

http://altiusminerals.com/letter-to-shareholders
« Last Edit: May 14, 2020, 10:52:56 PM by mikek »

bizaro86

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7352 on: May 14, 2020, 11:54:15 PM »
That worked, thanks!

I wish someone would have asked him why they sold their LIF shares. Aside from the timing/pricing of that sale (looks poor, right now) I wouldn't have thought they would have felt they needed capital.

His commentary on the renewable royalties was interesting - hopefully they get that spun out sooner rather than later. Would be a big potential catalyst.

I also thought it was interesting in the extensive discussion of Alderon going bankrupt there was no mention that they were a co-investor with Sprott in that loan. That makes me think the recovery on the sale of the Kami equity interest won't be very good.

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7353 on: May 15, 2020, 01:30:27 PM »
That worked, thanks!

I wish someone would have asked him why they sold their LIF shares. Aside from the timing/pricing of that sale (looks poor, right now) I wouldn't have thought they would have felt they needed capital.

His commentary on the renewable royalties was interesting - hopefully they get that spun out sooner rather than later. Would be a big potential catalyst.

I also thought it was interesting in the extensive discussion of Alderon going bankrupt there was no mention that they were a co-investor with Sprott in that loan. That makes me think the recovery on the sale of the Kami equity interest won't be very good.

The price received, inclusive of the dividends they've had over the past 2 years or so, makes it unlikely the sales were done at a loss.

My guess is it was for a number of reasons - 1) additional liquidity due to uncertainty 2) The reduction in dividends paid from IOC reduces the opportunity cost of the sale in the interim and 3) they mentioned that Altius shares was one of the best values they've seen in awhile and 4) Dalton mentioned on the earnings call that they're buying shares in a base metal royalty company @ incredible discounts.

Quote from the transcript

Quote
I've got to basically call it like I see it and not make a suggestion to shareholders that there's all sorts of deal flow coming at us for the types of assets that we're looking for. It's just not the case. The one exception to that, other than getting into the renewable sector where we do see lots of opportunity, is after this little company, which holds a huge portfolio of non-precious metals royalties that's trading at incredible discounts, we're buying as much of that as we can.

So maybe Altius' own shares, and this other royalty company, offer better value for the $ than LIF does now that the dividends will be reduced lowering the opportunity cost.

bizaro86

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7354 on: May 15, 2020, 01:39:19 PM »
I thought that quote was talking about buybacks.

Williams406

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7355 on: May 15, 2020, 01:44:45 PM »
Share buybacks is how that quote read to me as well.

mikek

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7356 on: May 15, 2020, 01:56:27 PM »
He definitely was talking about buying back Altius shares. It was a tongue in cheek type of comment but definitely was referring to Altius shares.

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7357 on: May 15, 2020, 03:19:53 PM »
He definitely was talking about buying back Altius shares. It was a tongue in cheek type of comment but definitely was referring to Altius shares.

Lol, I guess that went over my head reading it. Scratch a separate royalty purchase from my comments above then 😂

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7358 on: May 15, 2020, 04:46:30 PM »
I think they probably should go private. It's not like they're doing much for public shareholders.
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Thrifty3000

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7359 on: May 15, 2020, 07:24:45 PM »
Management should recognize there are few small cap investors sophisticated enough to appraise their assets. And, they should relax about that.

They should do exactly what theyíre doing - seize this opportunity to buy back shares at a bargain.

Nobody (including Altiusís management) can accurately pinpoint Altiusís value.

BUT, we can very roughly and conservatively appraise SOME of Altiusís assets (and all liabilities) and decide to purchase based on a price we get excited about.

I break Altiusís valuation into categories like:

1. Easiest to appraise: cash and marketable securities (less LIORC)
2. Moderately difficult to appraise: mid-cycle free cash flow from royalties (including LIORC royalties)
3. Too hard to appraise: exploration projects

I put a pretty big discount on their equities and royalty cash streams depending on my level of confidence in my evaluation ability. I put a $0 value on exploration and hope to be pleasantly surprised to the tune of a few hundred million in the next decade or so.

Iím pretty conservative so I also called Altiusís investor relations and:

- asked about cash burn over the next two years (debt servicing, g&a, etc.)
- confirmed things like the coal royalties are fixed price and are for base load power.

After all that I assign a price to Altius that I would be excited to own it, and then set a trade trigger in my investment account. I never expect my triggers to hit, but it feels like Christmas morning when they do. After watching and reading Altius reports for 11 years, my triggers for Altius recently hit, and Iím thrilled about the prospect of following the company for years to come.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2020, 03:35:18 PM by Thrifty3000 »