Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1884569 times)

beerbaron

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #900 on: November 20, 2012, 05:01:10 PM »
Weird why is Alderon being valued lower every day then...

BeerBaron


Green King

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #901 on: November 20, 2012, 05:11:57 PM »
Don't know.

Maybe Mr. Market want us to exploit his emotions.
Or it can be in the stars.

Fear ?
Fraud ?
or Free Money ?


:)

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/axx/short-interest
« Last Edit: November 20, 2012, 05:25:57 PM by Green King »
GK

Dazel

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ItsAValueTrap

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #903 on: November 20, 2012, 07:56:25 PM »
Here is one place to look at the spot pricing for iron ore:
http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/iron-ore/

"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. " -Buffett

my blog

Ross812

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #904 on: November 21, 2012, 05:42:50 AM »
Weird why is Alderon being valued lower every day then...

BeerBaron

It could be related to the delayed engineering report. The press release said the report was delayed but did not give a reason for the delay. This suggests that more exploratory borings or laboratory testing was needed to determine the extents and concentration of ore at the Kami project. An engineering firm will not give the excuse "Its just taking a bit longer than we anticipated" they would work overtime until the report was complete. Most of the time, if a report is delayed like this, the sub (driller) needs to go back out, weather delays field work, or there are legal/regulatory problems. I'll rule the later out because I imagine this is pretty routine work in the region, and I believe weather would have been blamed in the press release if it had been the culprit. This does not suggest that Kami is not viable; it only means that the numbers did not jump off the page confirming what the engineers and geologists were looking for. It most likely means the samples from the exploratory drilling came in low, and they are looking for the reason it did not match the previous findings at the site. It's very likely the extents or depth of the deposit may be being adjusted at this stage.
96% Fixed Income CDs, Muni, Corporate Debt - 4% SPX Options

Green King

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #905 on: November 21, 2012, 09:09:06 AM »
GK

Dazel

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Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #907 on: November 22, 2012, 06:32:38 AM »
http://www.metalbulletin.com/Raw-materials/Iron-ore-and-coking-coal.html


Here is a good resource for pricing and iron ore news.

biaggio

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #908 on: November 22, 2012, 07:33:40 AM »
Dazel, thanks for the continuous updates on ALS.

To me, it seems that it is easier to see that in the long term that China will eventually start to expand again, folks in rural china will continue to move to a better standard of living and will demand increasing amounts of commodities such as steel/iron, energy, etc. As opposed to the short term- who knows what can happen- bad things may happen (fiscal cliff, war in middle east + elsewhere, slow or no growth in global economy, etc)-eventually these will be worked out and we ll be better off for it.

I really like the idea of collecting royalties on increasing commodity prices over the next 10 years

Things can still go wrong of course. Life is humbling. I like ALS as part of a portfolio with other favorites here such as FFH, BRK, AIG/BAC, LUK and cash.

Other than the delayed engineering report, and short term macro issue does anyone see anything else wrong with this company? What else could be fooling us?

nostradamus

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #909 on: November 24, 2012, 01:39:39 AM »
Thanks all for helping to answer some of my questions, and thanks in particular to Dazel for getting this board going. As time goes on I become increasinly convinced that there is significant (and increasing!) value in this stock that is not recognised by the market. However, I think biaggio is right that it is important to think about and be aware of all potential negatives - even if, like me, you believe they are massively outweighed by the positives.

For me the negatives are:

1. They are overweight industrial metals and underweight precious metals. If the global economy falls off a cliff I would feel more confortable if they had a royalty stream in precious metals. (That said, given their cash pile, I think the downside is limited)

2. Their track record is excellent, but not perfect. The NLRC was a mistake. Hindsight is a great thing, and maybe at the early stages of the project they were completely correct given all the available information, but they should have cut their losses sooner (I have read an interview in which Dalton admits this). So it is not possible to image that they could again get drawn into some mega project that does not work out. (However, I take the view that they have learnt the lessons from the NLRC experience, plus if in the future they do decide to get involved in some mega project that puts a lot of the equity of the company at risk, I can always decide to exit at that point).

3. Cranberry capital. For me, I invest in Altius so that they can put my money to good work based on their real underlying competative advantage - prospect generation. I don't like the fact that they take some of my money and give it to someone else to manage (irrespective of who that person is and how supportive he has been to altius in the past). Sparkfly?!! Stick to mining.

Any disagreements? Any negatives missing?

N.