Author Topic: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles  (Read 1065021 times)

RadMan24

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Re: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
« Reply #3030 on: April 06, 2020, 08:55:15 AM »
How are folks thinking about long-term effects to the auto industry?
A horrible industry since the 70's. There are short-medium term opportunities such as:
https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/rno-renault-sa/

But otherwise I would avoid like the plague. It's that bad. Even in relatively "good" times.

When the industry consolidates significantly, maybe it would make a bit of sense, and even then it is still a hugely cash consuming, labor union happy, investor soul crushing industry. :)

With FCAU you're investing in a consolidator. I don't get your argument for the worst of breed Renault.


Gregmal

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Re: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
« Reply #3031 on: April 06, 2020, 09:03:32 AM »
Some of these, especially Ford IMO are in situations where they will not have any choice but to file bankruptcy if we get a prolonged downturn. Excellent macro type hedges.

Edward

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Re: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
« Reply #3032 on: April 06, 2020, 09:14:16 AM »
With FCAU you're investing in a consolidator. I don't get your argument for the worst of breed Renault.
Ok, I would have to upack that one.

First, the products are quite bad in both companies. Both Renault and Fiat have a few models in the past 20 years that were horribly unreliable and this is reflected in the lowest resale values in the industry. Nissan is actually somewhat ok (Renault hold 43% of Nissan). I am not so familiar with Chrysler products but I hear they're not the best.

Fiat have been de-consolidating since they acquired Chrysler. They spun off almost everything they have. That was great for shareholders.

Now you are left with two of the weakest competitors in the EU and the US, combined together and sharing no platforms essentially. And now they added Citroen, which has the same lousy used resale values, again for a reason.

If you want to have a look at a successful consolidator, look at Volkswagen. They bought a bunch of brands and converted them over time to the Volkswagen common platforms. Worked great.

The only problem is, they are barely making back their cost of capital despite being a giant in the business, because..... drum roll..... this business sucks. At least Audi is working out fine.

Great management might save the day for a while, like Carlos Ghosn in Renault or Marchionne in Fiat. Both long gone. Carlos Tavares is very good as well, and used to work under Ghosn.

I would say - this is going to be a wild ride and not necessarily with great results. I really hope Fiat have a good plan to make money, because it's going to be very hard with Volkswagen breathing down their neck.

Combining Fiat products with Citroen products and labor force is like the beginning of a bad joke. You can read some auto forums to get an idea of how bad modern citroen products are.

Edward

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Re: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
« Reply #3033 on: April 06, 2020, 09:21:05 AM »
As a side note regarding the merger on a 50-50 basis with Citroen, it's a joke. Citroen is about the worst performing/positioned company in the business, and so is Fiat if we don't include Chrysler.

The only thing making real money here are the RAM/Jeep products of Chrysler. The rest is a complete nightmare in terms of risk vs profitability.

Hopefully they spin Chrysler out of the Fiat-Citroen horror show before the overall ship sinks - mark my words.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2020, 09:25:41 AM by Edward »

RadMan24

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Re: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
« Reply #3034 on: April 07, 2020, 08:35:04 PM »
As a side note regarding the merger on a 50-50 basis with Citroen, it's a joke. Citroen is about the worst performing/positioned company in the business, and so is Fiat if we don't include Chrysler.

The only thing making real money here are the RAM/Jeep products of Chrysler. The rest is a complete nightmare in terms of risk vs profitability.

Hopefully they spin Chrysler out of the Fiat-Citroen horror show before the overall ship sinks - mark my words.

I see what you are saying. I prescribe little value to the European side of things, but the reason for the consolidation is to take out capital costs and R&D expense overlap, which will benefit European market cars.

Ram and Jeep are not going anywhere and are the anchors of the FCAU investment. Fiat will not drive earnings, but that business unit is consolidated, it will be less cash intensive, and maybe even profitable. Maserati also needs to get back to profitability as well.

Jeep and to an extent Chrysler, provide PSA a platform to reenter the US market. Now, would they do better than alfa romeo? Can't do much worse...but I have no reason to doubt Tavares, so its possible, particularly for electric platforms. 

The American side of FCAU is doing great because of execution and well timed bets.  Jeep is the #1 off road brand in America. Ram trucks have roared to second place ahead of the Silverado. Dodge Challenge and Charger are still selling like hot cakes despite being nearly a decade old. Chrysler minivan selling well. All pre-covid of course.

VW has a genius platform, but dieselgate really caused some issues in terms of profitability and caused a shift in the European regulations with stringent emission requirements which is basically making all auto's go straight to electric.

Edward

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Re: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
« Reply #3035 on: April 08, 2020, 07:52:43 AM »
With low gas prices and fuel efficiency I thing hybrid will be much bigger in the interim. All of these new platforms will be real bad in term of investment vs profitability.

Hopefully the cash burn of Citroen+Fiat will be limited enough so that Jeep+RAM can make some money. Maserati is too tiny to mean anything.

fareastwarriors

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Re: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
« Reply #3036 on: July 22, 2020, 12:27:19 AM »
Fiat Chrysler and Waymo sign exclusive deal on self-driving commercial vehicles

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/fiat-chrysler-and-waymo-sign-deal-on-self-driving-commercial-vehicles.html

TwoCitiesCapital

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RadMan24

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Re: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
« Reply #3038 on: July 28, 2020, 12:39:42 PM »