Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1949149 times)

SharperDingaan

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7310 on: February 05, 2020, 09:59:25 AM »
I was just trying to wind him up a bit hoping for a response. :)

I actually did very much appreciate his ALS news, just think his sudden disappearance seemed out of character. I don't believe he participated much in any other topic other than ALS. Best of luck to him.

He once said that 100% of his portfolio was in ALS (if I remember correctly), so that would both explain not participating in much else and the unusually intense attachment to the company.

I guess he's really gone... Didn't even say goodbye

Or maybe more of a case of the bad just driving out the good.

SD


Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7311 on: February 05, 2020, 10:06:07 AM »
Or maybe more of a case of the bad just driving out the good.

SD

Yeah, asking questions on a discussion forum is baaaad.

How's your cup of coffee today? Good or bad? There's a 50% chance it's either one, right?

Gamecock-YT

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7312 on: February 05, 2020, 10:11:44 AM »
Or maybe more of a case of the bad just driving out the good.

SD

Yeah, asking questions on a discussion forum is baaaad.

How's your cup of coffee today? Good or bad? There's a 50% chance it's either one, right?

Please. Did he bring some of the stuff on himself? Sure. But did you take pleasure on egging him on? I would bet so.

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7313 on: February 05, 2020, 10:32:57 AM »
Or maybe more of a case of the bad just driving out the good.

SD

Yeah, asking questions on a discussion forum is baaaad.

How's your cup of coffee today? Good or bad? There's a 50% chance it's either one, right?

Please. Did he bring some of the stuff on himself? Sure. But did you take pleasure on egging him on? I would bet so.

Who are you talking about, SD or Lin? And what egging him on? I don't know what you mean by that.

All I did was challenge some unchallenged claims and then discuss the answers, which is exactly what a discussion forum should be. When everybody is sitting on the same side of the boat, bad things tend to happen. It's healthy to have diverging opinions, it sharpens thinking. I'd rather that newcomers and lurkers who come to a thread get various takes and make up their minds about which makes the most sense than have everybody all singing kumbaya and saying that everything is amazing while the stock underperforms the index by 150% over a decade.

Haasje

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7314 on: February 06, 2020, 02:25:17 PM »
There are a lot of things that underperformed this particular index over that timeframe though.

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7315 on: February 07, 2020, 07:12:04 AM »
There are a lot of things that underperformed this particular index over that timeframe though.

That's factually true. But the point of investing is to make money, no? So I'm not sure it helps to say that other things also did poorly. The index is literally the default, something you can invest is for a few 10s of bps. So you should definitely compare yourself against it, at least in part, if you're an active investor. Not over-performing it all the time is normal. Under-performing it by 150% over a decade shows that something is definitely problematic with the approach.

And in the case of Lin, he said that 100% of his portfolio was in this one stock, and I was trying to warn him might not be good risk control and that the stock might not be getting good enough ROIC on the whole capital base, as well as had reinvestment and terminal value challenges, to perform well going forward. I may be wrong, but it's certainly something to consider and discuss, and it wasn't much looked at in this thread.

petec

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7316 on: February 07, 2020, 08:08:47 AM »
Under-performing it by 150% over a decade shows that something is definitely problematic with the approach.


Or that the starting valuation was very wrong.
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Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7317 on: February 07, 2020, 08:42:13 AM »
Under-performing it by 150% over a decade shows that something is definitely problematic with the approach.


Or that the starting valuation was very wrong.

In hindsight, obviously, it either was overpriced then, or it wasn't too badly priced if they had executed on the future value creation that was expected. Everybody was screaming how cheap it was at the time and they had compounded capital 40% CAGR since the company was created and so on. They had all these call options on potentially huge homegrown projects that had been generated at low cost, and almost no downside risk because of the huge cash pile on the balance sheet and the royalty model that capped the downside and let others spend on capex, the smartest management in the space, would create lots of value in a downturn, etc. So what happened, right? Turns out that there are benefits to the model, but it's not magic, and doesn't automatically allows them to get high ROIC on the whole capital base.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2020, 12:50:13 PM by Liberty »

bizaro86

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7318 on: February 07, 2020, 12:00:55 PM »
As a look back, I think while getting cheap options on things is great, the ALS price had shareholders paying significant sums for those options, especially kami. While ALS didn't pay much for that royalty position, it was certainly valued by the market.

I think in many ways the biggest operational mistake they made was the guys they picked to sell that rock to. If they had gone with someone less promotional/better operator Kami would probably be a mine right now, which would be huge even if they had a lower royalty.

SharperDingaan

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7319 on: February 07, 2020, 04:05:05 PM »
Kami will eventually become a very profitable and long-lived mine, but the problem is when.  A dollar of profit 10 years from now, discounted at 20%/yr, is worth just 16c today. If you are an IRON shareholder, and expect 50% dilution through the eventual financing process; 8c in the dollar.

Thing is, that once construction starts; it's only around 4 years until that first dollar, and the PV of each dollar is 48c. 3x the value for just getting the mine financed, then multiples again once it starts producing. But until then - your investment is dead money.

Of course there are ways 'around' this, but it's not for everyone.

SD