Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 2027040 times)

Sunrider

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7420 on: January 12, 2021, 01:23:18 PM »
Out of interest, does anyone here have a reasonably reasoned view on what ALS is worth/should be trading at?

Thank you.


TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7421 on: January 13, 2021, 06:43:04 AM »
Out of interest, does anyone here have a reasonably reasoned view on what ALS is worth/should be trading at?

Thank you.

I had models once - but since it's literally been below those prices the entire time I've owned it (since like 2013-ish), I'm beginning to think they're wrong and I just cross my fingers and hope  :'(

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7422 on: January 13, 2021, 06:52:39 AM »
Out of interest, does anyone here have a reasonably reasoned view on what ALS is worth/should be trading at?

Thank you.

In the long term the market is a weighting machine, right? If you look at the long term chart, you probably get a pretty good idea of the company's value..

bizaro86

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7423 on: January 13, 2021, 08:23:40 AM »
Out of interest, does anyone here have a reasonably reasoned view on what ALS is worth/should be trading at?

Thank you.

Last time I did it I came up with about $15-16 CAD iirc. So I was buying in the spring and have been selling recently.

Sunrider

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7424 on: January 13, 2021, 11:15:31 AM »
Thank you all... same boat, should've given up on this a long time ago. I vaguely recall myself writing something on this board ca. 2014? wondering out loud whether management is ever going to actually deliver value or was just content with their salary and maybe share price increases when they are going to retire. Perhaps that's what it is.

no_free_lunch

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7425 on: January 13, 2021, 11:20:06 AM »
Hasn't it been a horrible time for commodities though?   They seem to have done better than most commodity producers at least.  I think you will need a commodity boom to make any real money and if they can keep from losing equity while waiting they are actually ahead of the game in my opinion.

For me it's just a tiny position, less than 1%.  I just use it as an inflation hedge.

bizaro86

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7426 on: January 13, 2021, 11:41:28 AM »
I think it is moving up largely on iron ore. Champion, the new owner of Kami, is going to need large mining truck to move the bales of cash they're making around. That probably makes them more likely to spend the $$ to build Kami, which would be a huge catalyst.


TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7427 on: January 13, 2021, 12:25:14 PM »
Hasn't it been a horrible time for commodities though?   They seem to have done better than most commodity producers at least.  I think you will need a commodity boom to make any real money and if they can keep from losing equity while waiting they are actually ahead of the game in my opinion.

For me it's just a tiny position, less than 1%.  I just use it as an inflation hedge.

Yes. Waiting for it to be a good time for commodities is why I'm still here :/

I think it is moving up largely on iron ore. Champion, the new owner of Kami, is going to need large mining truck to move the bales of cash they're making around. That probably makes them more likely to spend the $$ to build Kami, which would be a huge catalyst.



Kami could be THE catalyst. Another 10-30 million in revenue to Altius is nothing to sneeze at (pending iron prices and volume/scale Champion builds). That being said, in the meantime, maybe prices collapse again and it doesn't get built for another 10 years. Who knows :/

Just waiting for this to eventually have been worthwhile.

bizaro86

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7428 on: January 13, 2021, 01:55:57 PM »
Hasn't it been a horrible time for commodities though?   They seem to have done better than most commodity producers at least.  I think you will need a commodity boom to make any real money and if they can keep from losing equity while waiting they are actually ahead of the game in my opinion.

For me it's just a tiny position, less than 1%.  I just use it as an inflation hedge.

Yes. Waiting for it to be a good time for commodities is why I'm still here :/

I think it is moving up largely on iron ore. Champion, the new owner of Kami, is going to need large mining truck to move the bales of cash they're making around. That probably makes them more likely to spend the $$ to build Kami, which would be a huge catalyst.



Kami could be THE catalyst. Another 10-30 million in revenue to Altius is nothing to sneeze at (pending iron prices and volume/scale Champion builds). That being said, in the meantime, maybe prices collapse again and it doesn't get built for another 10 years. Who knows :/

Just waiting for this to eventually have been worthwhile.

Yeah. I'm holding a core position for a potential big win, but have been in and out here multiple times. Which has kept it from being a total disaster...

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #7429 on: January 14, 2021, 06:36:54 AM »
Hasn't it been a horrible time for commodities though?   They seem to have done better than most commodity producers at least.  I think you will need a commodity boom to make any real money and if they can keep from losing equity while waiting they are actually ahead of the game in my opinion.

For me it's just a tiny position, less than 1%.  I just use it as an inflation hedge.

There's always an excuse. Meanwhile, the opportunity cost keeps growing, because you could've been owning something else that was up 2-3x in the meantime.

Weren't members of the company's exec team talking about how happy they were about the blood in the streets and time to buy and create lots of value in recent years? Isn't the model supposed to be that commodity cycles don't matter too much because they don't have the capex and have these magical royalties?

I don't know, I tend to think that stuff I said earlier in this thread applies and that they aren't getting a very high ROIC on overall capital employed, and because of this lack of value creation, the market is keeping the stock flat (which is losing value vs your opportunity cost, which should at least be the SP500, since you can trivially own that at almost no cost and be incredibly diversified across the whole world (US listed, but mostly global companies)).