Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 2072984 times)

Myth465

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #230 on: June 17, 2011, 02:57:32 AM »
I dont know that slightly reaks of talking your book.  Though the fact that Dazel's calculation is based on prices falling by 50% is quite interesting.


goldfinger

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #231 on: June 17, 2011, 12:12:45 PM »
I dont know that slightly reaks of talking your book.  Though the fact that Dazel's calculation is based on prices falling by 50% is quite interesting.

Those projects are not from private enterprise, those are government planning projects. I have a feeling that the more they try to slow down the economy the more they will try to compensate with projects of that kind so as to support poorer parts of the population (real estate projects), continue the development of the infrastructure for the future and provide construction/engineering jobs.
It is always better for Alderon to be in a context of very high iron ore demand so that chinese steel makes or miners feel the need to get supply from everywhere in the world: it acts as catalyst for quicker/bigger/better financing deals.
Believe it or not I saw other reports stating the fact that copper inventories have been cut in half recently and there is under-supply of copper at the moment also, like this one http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-15/copper-users-in-china-plunder-stockpiles-as-goldman-forecasts-record-rally.html

Myth465

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #232 on: June 18, 2011, 03:13:01 AM »
Commodities are interesting. They seem to follow economic threads to a degree but also appear to be slightly decoupled...

Either way I like them and plan on holding them for a while.

biaggio

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #233 on: June 18, 2011, 07:16:16 AM »
http://www.gurufocus.com/news/136687/monish-pabrai-postmortem-on-his-best-ever-investment--teck-cominco-tck

This will add to our/my confirmational bias re commodities.

"One of the things I believe will happen is that we'll probably see the rise of at least 100 brand new cities if not more, over the next 20 or 30 years which will each have at least 5 million people. When you are going to build out 100 New Yorks in a 30-year period, you can't do that without steel. ...

There are some specific chemistry nuances with met coal. Metallurgical coal and iron ore are both chokepoints. Most of the iron ore going to China comes from two countries, Brazil and Australia, and little bit from India. They're the chokepoint in terms of China's ability to get iron ore. Metallurgical coal is the same way. "

goldfinger

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #234 on: June 18, 2011, 12:54:12 PM »
Commodities are interesting. They seem to follow economic threads to a degree but also appear to be slightly decoupled...

Either way I like them and plan on holding them for a while.

You do not have a BRIC every generation! Other than that, there are true cycles of undersupply-oversupply in commodities that last for a decade or two. The crisis of 2007-2009 caused lots of projects to be dropped (NRLC is an example) at the wrong time.
I am only trying to capture a more detailed view of what is really happening in China for example than just listening to Chanos and followers or Rogers and followers: both talk their book. Chanos while smart and accurate in many ways sounds very arrogant and biased to me when it comes to that particular area. Buffett confirmed in a recent interview that he thought China will have many more successes. Who knows how deep this current crisis will be, but take the money and run seem a bit simplistic to me. What the central bank of Australia described or biaggio just mentioned look much more accurate and reasonable.

goldfinger

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #235 on: June 18, 2011, 01:48:25 PM »
He is an example of an article that underlines the fact that these outsiders like Chanos and Roubini say things about a country they are not really familiar with: http://www.forbes.com/2011/06/15/nouriel-roubini-is-all-wrong-about-china.html. And again that doesn't mean being in denial about the true issues this country faces.

Myth465

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #236 on: June 19, 2011, 04:19:44 AM »
Thanks all. Learning more and more each day.

naboo

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #237 on: June 20, 2011, 08:04:56 AM »
Should Altius release financial report this week?

last year dates:  6/29/2010(annual), 9/10/2010,  12/09/2010, 3/14/2011
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Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #238 on: June 22, 2011, 12:52:19 PM »

This Grantham piece has been passed around....for those interested in Altius and Alderon you should play close attention to the iron ore discussion...page 6 in particular.

Through GMO research they have come up with probability that prices would return to their downward 100 year trend...after the spikes over the last number of years...

iron ore has the highest probability of not returning to its down trend at a "1 and 2.2 million chance!!!"

He explains that he would not believe even a "1 and 1 million chance" but he has to believe it because he did it!

iron ore was $150 back in 1900...now it is back to $175 in 2011.

Dazel.

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #239 on: June 22, 2011, 12:55:31 PM »

sorry guys forgot to put in the link..it is worth the read

http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetterALL_1Q11.pdf

Dazel