Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1790126 times)

naboo

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 107
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #330 on: September 08, 2011, 07:18:24 AM »
Quote
"Alderon is presently exploring the Rose North deposit which is not developed sufficiently to be included in the PEA. As the Mills Lake deposit is anticipated to account for a much smaller portion of the overall resource, it has not been included in the PEA."


As mentioned in the release,  Mills Lake is ignored, but I want to know how small that is? (1M, 10M or 100M, or even 1B to be ignored).  I am waiting for the number from North Rose too. Hope it could surprise us.

Market has no reaction to this release.

It seems like Mills Lake is not that small

From their NI 43-101:

Categorized Mineral Resource Estimate for Kami Iron Ore Project
(Cutoff of 20% Tfe)

Category         Zone                   Tonnes (Million)          TFe%  magFe%   hmFe%   Mn%  SiO2%

Indicated         Rose Central       376.1                          29.8   18.6          8.3          1.56    44.9
                        Mills Lake            114.1                          30.5    22.1         5.7          1.02    45.6

Inferred           Rose Central       46.0                            29.8    19.2         8.0          1.61    44.9
                        Mills Lake            71.9                            30.7    22.2         6.0          1.05    4
*****  Every Penny Counts *****


Dazel

  • Guest
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #331 on: September 08, 2011, 08:03:33 AM »

"Would that make the NPV of the 3% royalty to Altius approx. $90 million?"

no.

You are seeing a cash flow model....Altius royalty is gross sales....

This is also half of the asset assuming they release the 43-101 OF $ 800M TO $1 BILLION....that would take the NPV of the project likely to $6 billion!!! Altius will not make $2.5 billion on it with their 39% stake...so lets not get carried away..but Alderon could be "huge".

The price used is $115 per ton....present price is $180.

So using these numbers...and assuming  a closer price to reality....I will let you do the math on how huge Alderon "could" be. Worth a lot more than the value of Altius right now as we have been saying for sometime. The PEA was better than we thought. We would suspect these returns will bring the big boys to the table...China, Vale, BHP, Rio Tinto...more so after the new resource estimate.

disclosure: we own Altius

Dazel.


Dazel

  • Guest
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #332 on: September 08, 2011, 08:09:11 AM »
http://www.mbironoreindex.com/

This the iron ore price today...at $181.

Someone will figure out what Altius has found sooner or later...The producers that rely on supply of iron ore will be first and the market next.

Dazel.

biaggio

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1200
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #333 on: September 08, 2011, 08:25:46 AM »
Guys, thanks for the update + commentary.

Have been scaling in. Becoming one of my larger holdings. Probably close to my limit for this type of investment (a company that I don t have a direct familiarity i.e I can t see,touch product,operations etc)

I can t help thinking that it is too good to be true. Does anyone else feel that?

I want to ask, without insulting or hurting anyones feeling as I know that a lot of effort has been put into this one especially by Dazel....What are the chances of fraud or bogus reporting?

I am trying to be unemotional.

Market obviously worried re recession, macro turmoil etc + I am comforted by the fact that it is indifferent to Canadian smaller resource based companies.

Dazel

  • Guest
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #334 on: September 08, 2011, 08:56:31 AM »
"I want to ask, without insulting or hurting anyones feeling as I know that a lot of effort has been put into this one especially by Dazel....What are the chances of fraud or bogus reporting?"
Biaggio...of course you will do your own due diligence...

great question...

Their cash hoard is a number of investment successes since 1997...but the largest of these are Aurora...you can see the press releases of stock sales in 2006 on the website. Obviously the public shares of aurora would have seen the values of these share sales. IRC and Royal Gold were also public transactions. We suggest you look at their other deals as well.

Harry Dobson is a legend in the industry and they have worked with him extensively...

They have dealt with cream of the crop since inception.. Rick Rule, Brent Cook to name a few...these guys would and could not have their reputations around anything but the best.

Brent Cook is an adviser to the company...

It helped us to check all of these people and their backgrounds. You will find many more that i have not identified that are linked to Brian Dalton...who himself has an impeccable record in his home province which we also like.

Alderon- we suggest that you look at the people associated with Alderon and their reputations and past experience.

junior resource company's have a bad reputation and about 90% of the profit is produced by 5 % of the people...Leucadia perked our interest when they entered the resource sector. So we looked for the best of the best and we think we found it. But you should take a look at the people involved.

Dazel

biaggio

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1200
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #335 on: September 08, 2011, 03:12:32 PM »
Thanks Dazel for your reply,

Of course we all should do our due diligence.

Obviously I am a believer in the story.

I generally love balance sheets with a lot of cash on them. I usually assume that the cash is real + trust the auditors in this case Deloite & Touche. Am I naive to have this belief in light of some of the items in regards to fraud/short selling on the other threads- EBIX, Sino Forest.

I am also reassured by the insider ownership, and other highly respected share holders (R Rule, H Dobson).

I am going to review their annual reports + other filings on Sedar.

Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11548
  • twitter.com/libertyRPF
    • twitter.com/libertyRPF
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #336 on: September 08, 2011, 07:42:52 PM »

Am I naive to have this belief in light of some of the items in regards to fraud/short selling on the other threads- EBIX, Sino Forest.

No fraud at EBIX as far as anyone knows, so don't lump together with Sino Forest please :)
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

biaggio

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1200
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #337 on: September 09, 2011, 05:31:46 AM »
Sorry Liberty did not mean it that way,meant the debate on the EBIX thread

Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11548
  • twitter.com/libertyRPF
    • twitter.com/libertyRPF
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #338 on: September 09, 2011, 07:15:11 AM »
Sorry Liberty did not mean it that way,meant the debate on the EBIX thread

No worries, I just wanted to make sure that people who follow this thread but not the one at EBIX wouldn't read that and conclude: "Ah, so they did find something bad at EBIX..." ;)
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

orion

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 116
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #339 on: September 09, 2011, 08:17:04 AM »
Hi, after reading the discussion I think this is a very compelling idea. But, unfortunately for me, this topic (Mining, Exploration) is way out of my "circle of competence". Beside reading Altiusīs reports, do you have any recommendations to get a better understanding, how things work in this sector? Websites, books, etc.

Thanks