Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 2069306 times)

shalab

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #440 on: December 31, 2011, 08:15:27 AM »
According to wikipedia - China/Japan and Korea followed by U.S and Europe are the biggest consumers of iron ore. China is also the largest producer.

Iron ore can go below $100 ( pre 2009 levels ) fairly easily if China slows down. China has become the manufacturer for the world but this could shift. It is not an impossible situation as more manufacturing is moving out of China because of cost - some is even coming back to the U.S or moving to other Asian countries already. It just doesnt have to be housing which has already slowed down.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_ore

For ALS in particular, I am not looking for one year double or two year double. If played carefully, this could be a multi bagger. Obviously, a lot depends on management to have the patience and to make it happen.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2011, 10:58:55 AM by shalab »


rmitz

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #441 on: December 31, 2011, 09:47:18 AM »
Dazel, hope you are right. A friend of mine who happens to be in China has mentioned that housing market is cooling in China and businesses are seeing a slowdown. Whether it lasts or not is a different question - hopefully not. If you look at this article, it seems China wants cheaper supplies of iron which they likely will get from ALS.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/china-seeks-cheaper-iron-ore-supplies/story-e6frg9df-1226128456943


On the other hand, developing world is more than China. So, there should be demand from rest of Asia/Africa which has all the issues you mentioned - chronic power shortage etc. However, China has building infrastructure since the 1980s, tearing up and rebuilding the same infrastructure.

I found this article particularly instructive on the possible China downturn, hopefully it hasn't been posted already:

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/136963/patrick-chovanec/chinas-real-estate-bubble-may-have-just-popped?cid=nlc-this_week_on_foreignaffairs_co-122211-chinas_real_estate_bubble_may_2-122211


Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #442 on: December 31, 2011, 12:17:48 PM »
What makes me comfortable with ALS is that even if commodities prices go down a lot, they'll be able to take advantage of it because of their huge cash pile and proven capital allocation skills. They don't have debt so even commodity Armageddon wouldn't be an existential risk (unless it lasts for decades). The worse that could happen would be for Alderon to unravel, Voise Bay to pay a lot less, and Paladin to stop developing. That would be really bad, but the cash on their balance sheet would still be worth par putting a floor on the share price (along with buybacks, most likely), and it would allow them to buy royalties and securities at very attractive prices, setting them up for the next up cycle.

That's why I'm not too worried for the long-term. But short-term, who knows?

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #443 on: January 01, 2012, 10:26:34 AM »
What I'm really wondering is what would Alderon do if China had  a slowdown right now.

Would it really make them consider delaying or giving up on Kami, or would they think "well, by the time we ship in 2015, chances are they'll be out of the hole and iron ore prices will have recovered".

Because it's doubtful that a Chinese slowdown of infrastructure buildup would last for years and years, IMO. The stock market could crash, but I doubt they'll stop building stuff that easily.

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #444 on: January 01, 2012, 01:57:51 PM »
The Chinese stock market has already "crashed" in our terms...down 12% and 22% in the last 2 years...all being discussed is not new news.
The big difference is that china is government run and they have the pocket book unlike the u.s and Europe to stimulate....they have to keep it going they cannot have social unrest in china...and their populace is getting used to the new way...
Jeremy grantham has done a lot of work on commodities and feels as many that we are in a global shortage of everything...they peg the chance reversal of the trend in iron ore as the lowest probability of all commodities...can't remember the number but I believe it is 1000000 to 1. I hope he is right as well....we are only looking at keeping these levels not the $191 a ton we hit last february....the average price was $167 a ton last year and $144 for 2010.

Dazel.

shalab

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #445 on: January 01, 2012, 04:55:35 PM »
It is true that the Chinese government has very deep pockets and can control  the market to a great extent - I look them to stimulate again or increase imports or do both to placate all.

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #446 on: January 02, 2012, 04:55:16 AM »
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-02/manufacturing-grows-in-india-china-as-most-of-europe-struggles-economy.html


They may not need any stimulus as they continue to bump along....this all we need at altius....

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #447 on: January 02, 2012, 05:16:16 AM »
http://Uraniuminvestingnews.com/9989/cgnpc-extract-husab-uranium-namibia-ext-kah.html

China is showing it's appetite for uranium quietly as well...altius is positioned to benefit here as well with the lift of the ban on uranium mining in the central belt. We think that this forgotten asset at altius will pay big dividends in the not too distant future. Actually if you look at it from the view of the Chinese...altius is a perfect play to get control of large resources in Newfoundland and Labrador...with the political backing that comes with altius..they have a friendly environment...as we are seeing they are having to bid against Rio Tinto et all. All over the world...Paladin paid .91 cents a pound for aurora..Rio Tinto paid $10 a pound for Hathor and the above bids show the  Chinese are quite high as well...altius already partners with Rio Tinto in Newfoundland in iron ore

projects...http://altiusminerals.com/files/PR1111-RT.pdf

Dazel.

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #448 on: January 02, 2012, 06:08:28 AM »
http://canadianinsider.com/node/7?ticker=ALS


Altius continues to shrink the float...daily.

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #449 on: January 02, 2012, 08:30:32 AM »
http://canadianinsider.com/node/7?ticker=ALS


Altius continues to shrink the float...daily.

By my count they've bought back about 200k shares in the past 6 month. (I could be wrong about that, though, as it was just quick back of the enveloppe math)