ALS.TO - Altius Minerals

[Dazel]

Value is what yo get,


Your numbers are half right....double them. The PEA report is on half of the resource as the 500m+ ton  upgrade was after the report was done...these numbers will show up in the feasibility study which should be excellent...that would bring the npv of alder on to over $6b...obviously compensating the billion it will take to build it.
So it is now 16m tons a year production.....that is what they applied for from the government...so it everything x2.
$430m and $645m.....how is your margin of safety now? As we have said the royalty is worth more than Altius trades for....as Shaleb said a multi bagger .....






Do you see why we are screaming....we are going to get rich here.

Dazel.

[Dazel]

The alder on capital seems expensive....but it is the most important capital they will raise....it will take them through to the bankable feasibility study....where they will make deals for production etc...that will finance the production build out. They are on their way.

Dazel.

[HJ]

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=240

Question:  If iron ore prices collapses from here, how should one think about where the downside is?

[Dazel]

Hj,

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/05/02/207994/grantham-must-read-time-to-wake-up-days-of-abundant-resources-and-falling-prices-are-over-forever/


Grantham comes up with a 1 in 2.2 million chance that iron ore will reverse it's trend. I like those odds..
Besides you ask what is the down side sarcastically....not much considering none of what has been discussed is in the stock price. If we were at $25 where we should be I would be worried about
 downside risks to the 1 in 2.2 millin chance we reverse course.

So actually if we crash as you say...our downside is we pick up everything for 10 cents on the dollar with our quarter of a billion in cash.

Dazel

[Dazel]

Anyone who does not want to read the Grantham piece....the 1 in 2.2 million chance in iron ore reversing it's current trend of pricing in in "exhibit 4" from the post above.

Here is where we are today
http://www.mbironoreindex.com/

Dazel.

[Dazel]

http://www.alderonironore.com/_resources/news/2012-01-12-NewsRelease.pdf

Liberty,

If you read more into it...alder on has brought on a specific shareholder with deep pockets....likely with an eye for The future. With in the agreement Liberty llc (is this your hold co.!)...has first option on any other financing and alder on has the right to purchase or to  find a purchaser of  any shares Liberty wants to sell. They have secured a Long term partner....not speculators. I agree $2.67 is low but it looks like the right color of money.

Dazel.

[value-is-what-you-get]

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=240

Question:  If iron ore prices collapses from here, how should one think about where the downside is?

from the Alderon site:

•Total operating cost (excluding royalties) of US$44.87/tonne concentrate (averaged over the life of mine)

Now this doesn't include amortizing about $67 million a year for the initial Capital expense of the concentrator etc which adds about $8.38/tonne so that brings it up to $53.25/tonne - call it $60 / tonne to justify operating for Alderon.  This is all based on stated run rate of 8 million tonnes a year for 15 years.

[Liberty]

http://www.alderonironore.com/_resources/news/2012-01-12-NewsRelease.pdf

Liberty,

If you read more into it...alder on has brought on a specific shareholder with deep pockets....likely with an eye for The future. With in the agreement Liberty llc (is this your hold co.!)...has first option on any other financing and alder on has the right to purchase or to  find a purchaser of  any shares Liberty wants to sell. They have secured a Long term partner....not speculators. I agree $2.67 is low but it looks like the right color of money.

Dazel.

Ha! I wish I knew more about Liberty llc, actually. But if they are a quality partner with deep pockets (and I'm sure Alderon-Altius management would settle for nothing less), then I'm happy about it. The more people have a stake in getting Kami to production, the better.

Price is based on the average over a period of time, and it could have turned out much worse if ADV hadn't climbed back up.

Right now I'm more concerned about them maximizing the probability of getting Kami to commercial production than anything else. It would suck if they focused on minimizing dilution and missed a chance of going for production; winning a battle that costs you the war..

[Liberty]

Some commentary about the recent developments at ADV:

http://www.grandich.com/2012/01/grandich-client-alderon-iron-ore/

[Dazel]

Liberty LLC.....has a giant parent...I would say that financing looks good..off to the races...I was thinking Leucadia or Fairfax might be interesting partners to bring in bigger partners... not a fortune 100 company from the start. Daddy is number 82 on the list just ahead of DuPont....low interest rates are going to help a lot of different industries as insurance and mutual funds look for returns...I hope that Alderon becomes a nice bond like investment for them. It appears that Alderon is higher profile than I thought. That will give them greater bargaining power when they are Doing contracts etc...these guys are good.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500/2011/full_list/

Dazel.