ALS.TO - Altius Minerals

[HJ]

Hj,

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/05/02/207994/grantham-must-read-time-to-wake-up-days-of-abundant-resources-and-falling-prices-are-over-forever/


Grantham comes up with a 1 in 2.2 million chance that iron ore will reverse it's trend. I like those odds..
Besides you ask what is the down side sarcastically....not much considering none of what has been discussed is in the stock price. If we were at $25 where we should be I would be worried about
 downside risks to the 1 in 2.2 millin chance we reverse course.

So actually if we crash as you say...our downside is we pick up everything for 10 cents on the dollar with our quarter of a billion in cash.

Dazel

Wasn't being sarcastic at all, and wasn't saying that it necessarily will crash either.  Just want to understand the circumstance under which prices would get below their production cost, since it was there not that long ago.  Wondering if there's a way to see where they are on the global production cost curve vs. demand.

[Dazel]

Hj,


Fair enough....there is a reason why the price is so high...unlike copper and oil....the market is not made up of speculators...the prices I quote are negotiated and they fluctuate on buying and supply. India has put an export tariff on for a reason...the need the steel at home. China and India are the steel story it is as simple as that. If the rest of the world builds (keystone pipeline etc) than there will be less supply....if read the Grantham report...china is almost 50%. Those are not houses...they are  nuclear plants, high speed rail, coal plants etc....housing uses copper not steel.

Dazel.

[Dazel]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=Pdn.to&ql=1

We had considered approaching Altius managment about taking a significant stake in Paladin Energy. We thought as we expressed here that uranium stocks were very very cheap. It would not have been that expensive to take a big enough position to have some influence on the Michelin project. They have convertibles  due in 2013 and2014... So we did not pursue it...as it turns out in the short term it would have been a great investment. Uranium stocks have rebounded sharply from a terrible 2011.

Altius has been associated closely with uranium because of its incredible success at Aurora. Altius' stock was hit very hard after the tsunami last year...With moratorium lifted and uranium stocks gaining favor again it is reasonable to believe they will join in this rally as they were treated like the other uranium stocks last spring. Their uranium holdings and royalty at the Michelin plant are
substantial.

Dazel

[Dazel]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Paladin-Energy-Ltd-Quarterly-ccn-3173198448.html?x=0


Paladin highlights the moratorium lifted in Labrador and calls  the michelin project  "world class"...the volume in their shares was 10 times normal today on their other production success.

Dazel

[Dazel]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/01/18/uk-bhp-idUKTRE80H06M20120118

BHP does not see China slowing down...they are predicting record production this year.

Dazel

[Liberty]

http://webcasts.welcome2theshow.com/whistler2012

Audio recording of a panel with CEO of Alderon.

(I haven't listened to it yet, but it should be interesting)

Free reg. required.

[Liberty]

Plans for expansion of the Sept Iles port, mentions Alderon among others:

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/affaires/les-regions/201201/18/01-4487192-le-port-de-sept-iles-se-nourrit-de-fer.php

Looks like they want a new terminal done around 2014, which would be great timing for Alderon.

[naboo]

Any news from NLRC?

[Liberty]

Any news from NLRC?

I haven't seen anything. It's probably material enough that if anything was announced ALS would do a press release.

[Liberty]

Audio recording of an interview with the Chairman of Alderon from last November (I don't think it was posted here yet):

http://www.mining.com/2011/11/01/mining-com-podcast-canadian-iron-ore-project-advancing/