ALS.TO - Altius Minerals

[Liberty]

We will post what our updated value of Altius is soon..when I get back from Aruba...but it sure is not in the teens....they have created a lot of value in the last couple of years.

Thanks, I'm definitely curious to see what kind of IV range you are seeing.

[Dazel]

The sun must have fried my brain...we will not be posting our evaluation...if you read through these threads and you have a grade 2 math education you can figure it out...we have build a position over 3 years and it would be ridiculous of us to create more competition for us to continue buying shares as we have...the stock is too illiquid and we have seen our hard work as well as all of yours all over the internet. Our position has become too large to express opinions..so our posts from now on will be facts.
Happy buying and good luck to all.


Dazel

[Liberty]

It's entirely up to you. Personally, I think I prefered the sun-fried Dazel, though 

My estimate of Altius's IV is fuzzy on the upside, but the downside is very clear -- extremely well protected, which makes me comfortable. If something really bad happens to Alderon and Paladin's CMB, it probably means the industry as a whole is depressed enough for Altius to deploy capital in very attractive opportunities (both in royalties and equities, and maybe repurchases), and if Alderon and Paladin go forward as planned, it should be a big homerun. In the meantime, Voisey's Bay is more than enough to fund operations/exploration...

I can't quantify the upside precisely, but the range is extremely attractive and I'm confident in management's ability to do what is best for the shareholder.

[Dazel]

http://www.labradorironore.com/Corporate-Information/default.aspx


You can plug numbers in using Labrador iron ore royalty to get an idea of what Altius' royalty at Alderon could look like. As large as The iron ore company of Canada is they are producing 15m tonnes of ore right now (they are raising production) less than the 16m that Alderon is planning...we are using these numbers for comparability. Labador iron ore royalty has a 7% payout compared to Altius' 3% and they own 15% equity in the Iron ore company of Canada....their market cap is $2.3b and they do not have any other assets. Keep in mind that they have paid out $100's of millions of dollars in dividends already...$134m last year!

I hated to leave you hanging Liberty.

Dazel.

[Green King]

thank you for the pointer

[Liberty]

http://www.labradorironore.com/Corporate-Information/default.aspx


You can plug numbers in using Labrador iron ore royalty to get an idea of what Altius' royalty at Alderon could look like. As large as The iron ore company of Canada is they are producing 15m tonnes of ore right now (they are raising production) less than the 16m that Alderon is planning...we are using these numbers for comparability. Labador iron ore royalty has a 7% payout compared to Altius' 3% and they own 15% equity in the Iron ore company of Canada....their market cap is $2.3b and they do not have any other assets. Keep in mind that they have paid out $100's of millions of dollars in dividends already...$134m last year!

So if I'm doing this right...

"IOC's 2010 sales totalled 15.1 million tonnes comprised of 3.0 million tonnes of iron ore concentrate and 12.1 million tonnes of iron ore pellets. IOC generated revenues of $2,522 million in 2010 (2009 - $1,144 million). IOC sales traditionally are approximately 35% in North America, 35% in Europe, 25% in the Asia-Pacific region and minor amounts in other areas. "

So if ADV had the same revenues of 2.5B, 3% GSR for altius would be about 75 million (I'm doing that right? GSR is calculated over revenue?). Very impressive. I guess it'll vary with the price of iron ore (f.ex. 2009 was 1.144B), but I was expecting something closer to 40-45m at recent prices. Since the 16m tons/year for Alderon won't happen for a while, the 8m tons/year should be about half that, or 37.5m.

The beauty of a gross sales royalty is that operating costs don't matter too much. Of course you don't want a royalty on a high-cost producer that will shut down if spot prices go down, but it still gives you a lot more predictability than if you had a royalty based on income.

I hated to leave you hanging Liberty.

You can still send me a private message, y'know It's not like I have enough capital to move this stock one way or the other, and I'm already one of the converts, so it would be more out of intellectual curiosity than to convince me to make a move 

[Green King]

I hated to leave you hanging Liberty.

You can still send me a private message, y'know It's not like I have enough capital to move this stock one way or the other, and I'm already one of the converts, so it would be more out of intellectual curiosity than to convince me to make a move 

Come on share the tools and ideas please.  Value investing is a character game not a information one. 
I would like to thank you both for the contribution to this thread i learned a lot.

[Liberty]

http://www.radio-canada.ca/emissions/bonjour_la_cote/2011-2012/chronique.asp?idChronique=203167

For those who understand French, here's a radio interview with Bernard Potvin of Alderon.

[Dazel]

Liberty,

It is a moving target as you can see....but if you pick ranges within the numbers you will come with a low end and a high end...Labrador iron ore royalty helps as a guide....they are similar...you have to use them because TC1 did not have a royalty imbedded...
Back out the royalty alone....low range high range...multiply it by the years of production...now that is one asset for Altius!!

Their share of the stock right now is about $120m add it....and then pick ranges for the rest of the assets....you will be surprised when you add them all up!

Dazel.

[Dazel]

http://www.mbironoreindex.com/

Iron ore pricing rising up to above $141/ tonne.

Dazel.