ALS.TO - Altius Minerals

[Green King]

thank you for the pointer

[Liberty]

http://www.labradorironore.com/Corporate-Information/default.aspx


You can plug numbers in using Labrador iron ore royalty to get an idea of what Altius' royalty at Alderon could look like. As large as The iron ore company of Canada is they are producing 15m tonnes of ore right now (they are raising production) less than the 16m that Alderon is planning...we are using these numbers for comparability. Labador iron ore royalty has a 7% payout compared to Altius' 3% and they own 15% equity in the Iron ore company of Canada....their market cap is $2.3b and they do not have any other assets. Keep in mind that they have paid out $100's of millions of dollars in dividends already...$134m last year!

So if I'm doing this right...

"IOC's 2010 sales totalled 15.1 million tonnes comprised of 3.0 million tonnes of iron ore concentrate and 12.1 million tonnes of iron ore pellets. IOC generated revenues of $2,522 million in 2010 (2009 - $1,144 million). IOC sales traditionally are approximately 35% in North America, 35% in Europe, 25% in the Asia-Pacific region and minor amounts in other areas. "

So if ADV had the same revenues of 2.5B, 3% GSR for altius would be about 75 million (I'm doing that right? GSR is calculated over revenue?). Very impressive. I guess it'll vary with the price of iron ore (f.ex. 2009 was 1.144B), but I was expecting something closer to 40-45m at recent prices. Since the 16m tons/year for Alderon won't happen for a while, the 8m tons/year should be about half that, or 37.5m.

The beauty of a gross sales royalty is that operating costs don't matter too much. Of course you don't want a royalty on a high-cost producer that will shut down if spot prices go down, but it still gives you a lot more predictability than if you had a royalty based on income.

I hated to leave you hanging Liberty.

You can still send me a private message, y'know It's not like I have enough capital to move this stock one way or the other, and I'm already one of the converts, so it would be more out of intellectual curiosity than to convince me to make a move 

[Green King]

I hated to leave you hanging Liberty.

You can still send me a private message, y'know It's not like I have enough capital to move this stock one way or the other, and I'm already one of the converts, so it would be more out of intellectual curiosity than to convince me to make a move 

Come on share the tools and ideas please.  Value investing is a character game not a information one. 
I would like to thank you both for the contribution to this thread i learned a lot.

[Liberty]

http://www.radio-canada.ca/emissions/bonjour_la_cote/2011-2012/chronique.asp?idChronique=203167

For those who understand French, here's a radio interview with Bernard Potvin of Alderon.

[Dazel]

Liberty,

It is a moving target as you can see....but if you pick ranges within the numbers you will come with a low end and a high end...Labrador iron ore royalty helps as a guide....they are similar...you have to use them because TC1 did not have a royalty imbedded...
Back out the royalty alone....low range high range...multiply it by the years of production...now that is one asset for Altius!!

Their share of the stock right now is about $120m add it....and then pick ranges for the rest of the assets....you will be surprised when you add them all up!

Dazel.

[Dazel]

http://www.mbironoreindex.com/

Iron ore pricing rising up to above $141/ tonne.

Dazel.

[Dazel]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Altius-Continues-Advance-ccn-3438591380.html?x=0


These guys are good...

Dazel.

[Green King]

Hey
 I am am going to the PDAC conference does anyone any question want me to ask the Alderon people ?

[Liberty]

Alderon Iron Ore Corp. (TSX: ADV) (OTCQX: ALDFF) (“Alderon” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that its common shares have been approved for listing on the NYSE Amex. Alderon anticipates trading on the NYSE Amex exchange will begin on Friday, March 9, 2012 under the symbol “AXX”. The Company will continue to trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol “ADV”.

“This NYSE Amex listing represents another significant milestone in Alderon’s growth,” stated Mark Morabito, Alderon’s Executive Chairman. “The listing will provide greater trading accessibility for United States investors, is expected to enhance liquidity and will provide Alderon with exposure to a wider audience of investors.”

[Liberty]

New analyst report on Alderon:

http://www.grandich.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/NBF_DM12C02_E.pdf

Alderon Iron Ore – In the Right Backyard: The Kami project's manageable size of eight
million tonnes per year and favourable location close to existing infrastructure, combined
with a management team with extensive iron ore experience, positions Alderon as a
developer that could potentially advance to production for relatively lower capital and
without the need of a partnership. Initiating coverage with an Outperform and $5.10 target
price.