ALS.TO - Altius Minerals

[Liberty]

Buyback by Altius:

http://www.altiusminerals.com/files/PR0512-NCIB.pdf

I like companies doing buyback compared to dividend.

That's just their authorization, afaik. They had the same thing last year. The main limiting factor on their buybacks is daily volume. They did a bunch a few months ago, but I'm sure they wish they could've gotten more at those prices (around $10).

[alertmeipp]

It does provide a nice support.
I expect them to start buying next week, last time they buy around 11.

[link01]

For all the noise about China...iron ore prices are solid... they are back close to $150....remember the Australian mining tax coming up will help Altius and Alderon...it evens the playing field a little with the geographic location advantage that Aussie miners have with china....Alderon' bankable feasibility study will extremely good at these iron ore prices.

Dazel.

hmmmm. do you contemplate at least the possiblity of weaker iron ore pricing, & how would that affect your valuation analysis of altius?

"Going forward, analysts are forecasting significant supply-side
growth – cumulatively around 400 million tonnes (mt) between 2011
and 2016. Iron ore demand, on the other hand, is only expected to
grow at 250-300mt over the same period. As a result consensus
estimates have iron ore prices coming down to a long term price of
around US$75/t from as early as 2016 onwards."

http://www.blackrockinternational.com/content/groups/internationalsite/documents/literature/1111140869.pdf

[Dazel]

Link01,


Altius is trading like iron ore is trading at $75...so no I am not worried. Your report is from June 2011...the world was ending as Europe was imploding which would end china, the u.s was about to default on their debt as they were done too...I can find you reports that will say iron ore will be $200 a ton too...I think they are also useless.
China's slow down has slowed down iron ore production....brazil produced less in 2011... I am comfortable with $118... I do not want to see anything above $150 because it does not help long term.
China will build out their infrastructure for the super power of an economy you can be sure...there WILL be hiccups as there is now...but we are in the Jeremy Grantham camp that puts iron ore trend reversal odds of 2 million to one...we like those odds. However, I can not tell you what the price of iron ore will be in 2016.... But more importantly no one else can either.

The best part is we do not have to pay for any risk at Altius...it is in the price already!!

Dazel

[Liberty]

http://www.grandich.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Morning-Pulse_20120113_ADV.pdf

Sorry if this has already been posted here.

[link01]

quotesAltius is trading like iron ore is trading at $75...so no I am not worried. Your report is from June 2011...the world was ending as Europe was imploding which would end china, the u.s was about to default on their debt as they were done too...I[/quote]

thx, dazel.

i was just curious as to how much you have baked in various worst case scenario's into your thesis since a worldwide deflationary risk outcome is still very much a possibility. and even absent that extreme, iron ore seems to have alot of new capacity coming online in combo with a china deceleration at the margin, & possibly much worse than that.

and then there's some plausible calls for an end to the commodity super cycle in general like this one:

"China had a massive surge in its demand for commodities over the past decade, fueled by its housing boom and infrastructure investment boom. From 2000 to 2010, China’s imports (in value terms) of iron ore surged by 42.5 times, thermal coal 248 times and copper 16.2 times. During the same period, its production (in quantity terms) for aluminum jumped by 441.8%, cement 219.5% and steel 396.0%. It is the biggest consumer in virtually all commodity categories in the world. In Credit Suisse's view, China was the key factor behind the global commodity supercycle. After a period of economic slowdown, all eyes are on China, hoping that the middle kingdom can return to its might in commodity demand. CS cuts through all the cyclical factors and asks whether China's mighty demand for commodities will return in the medium term - their answer is 'No'. As the economy shifts its growth engines away from infrastructure, construction and exports toward consumption, especially service consumption, the propensity of demand for commodities is bound to decline."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/china-and-end-commodity-super-cycle

sorry to link to those anarchistic ideologues at zerohedge, but they do sometimes link to interesting outside research that is worth a read if you can ignore their own crazy talk, end of the world wishing biased commentary.

 

[Dazel]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-01/china-s-manufacturing-expands-at-fastest-pace-in-12-months-1-.html

It appears they have not closed up shop in china yet!

Dazel

[Green King]

Dazel

Do you know they calculate those odds ? Game theory ??

Thanks

GK

Link01,


Altius is trading like iron ore is trading at $75...so no I am not worried. Your report is from June 2011...the world was ending as Europe was imploding which would end china, the u.s was about to default on their debt as they were done too...I can find you reports that will say iron ore will be $200 a ton too...I think they are also useless.
China's slow down has slowed down iron ore production....brazil produced less in 2011... I am comfortable with $118... I do not want to see anything above $150 because it does not help long term.
China will build out their infrastructure for the super power of an economy you can be sure...there WILL be hiccups as there is now...but we are in the Jeremy Grantham camp that puts iron ore trend reversal odds of 2 million to one...we like those odds. However, I can not tell you what the price of iron ore will be in 2016.... But more importantly no one else can either.

The best part is we do not have to pay for any risk at Altius...it is in the price already!!

Dazel

[JAllen]

Dazel

Do you know they calculate those odds ? Game theory ??

Thanks

GK

Link01,


Altius is trading like iron ore is trading at $75...so no I am not worried. Your report is from June 2011...the world was ending as Europe was imploding which would end china, the u.s was about to default on their debt as they were done too...I can find you reports that will say iron ore will be $200 a ton too...I think they are also useless.
China's slow down has slowed down iron ore production....brazil produced less in 2011... I am comfortable with $118... I do not want to see anything above $150 because it does not help long term.
China will build out their infrastructure for the super power of an economy you can be sure...there WILL be hiccups as there is now...but we are in the Jeremy Grantham camp that puts iron ore trend reversal odds of 2 million to one...we like those odds. However, I can not tell you what the price of iron ore will be in 2016.... But more importantly no one else can either.

The best part is we do not have to pay for any risk at Altius...it is in the price already!!

Dazel

I've been wondering exactly what they meant as well.  I think that iron ore has had the biggest percentage increase of any commodity (>1000&) which is my guess about why iron ore leads their list of paradigm shifts for commodity prices....

[beerbaron]

I believe it was all discussed by Bill Gross at Pimpco. And they ended up with a 1 in 1 000 000 chance that the iron ore increase was due to volatility.

BeerBaron