quotesAltius is trading like iron ore is trading at $75...so no I am not worried. Your report is from June 2011...the world was ending as Europe was imploding which would end china, the u.s was about to default on their debt as they were done too...I[/quote]
thx, dazel.
i was just curious as to how much you have baked in various worst case scenario's into your thesis since a worldwide deflationary risk outcome is still very much a possibility. and even absent that extreme, iron ore seems to have alot of new capacity coming online in combo with a china deceleration at the margin, & possibly much worse than that.
and then there's some plausible calls for an end to the commodity super cycle in general like this one:
"China had a massive surge in its demand for commodities over the past decade, fueled by its housing boom and infrastructure investment boom. From 2000 to 2010, China’s imports (in value terms) of iron ore surged by 42.5 times, thermal coal 248 times and copper 16.2 times. During the same period, its production (in quantity terms) for aluminum jumped by 441.8%, cement 219.5% and steel 396.0%. It is the biggest consumer in virtually all commodity categories in the world. In Credit Suisse's view, China was the key factor behind the global commodity supercycle. After a period of economic slowdown, all eyes are on China, hoping that the middle kingdom can return to its might in commodity demand. CS cuts through all the cyclical factors and asks whether China's mighty demand for commodities will return in the medium term - their answer is 'No'. As the economy shifts its growth engines away from infrastructure, construction and exports toward consumption, especially service consumption, the propensity of demand for commodities is bound to decline."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/china-and-end-commodity-super-cyclesorry to link to those anarchistic ideologues at zerohedge, but they do sometimes link to interesting outside research that is worth a read if you can ignore their own crazy talk, end of the world wishing biased commentary.